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r/theydidthemath pls

Enter invite only or group giveaways with lower numbers of entrants.

Higher level, and puzzle / invite only, and group giveaways will all have a greater chance of winning.

Well just take the coefficient of the bilateral quantum flux and divide that by two. Take that result and multiply by pie, divide by potato and that should give you a rough estimate

My knowledge of statistics doesn't go much further than looking at a bell curve, or analyzing data points, but it seems as if it would go something along this thought process.

Assuming 500 total entries, you would have a 1 in 500 chance of winning. do that 350 times, you would have 350/500, or about .7. I'm also pretty sure that the logic in there doesn't follow, and falls into a fairly classical statistical analysis mistake so if anyone would like to school me, i'm more than open to it. I'm an engineer, not a statistician.

Your chances of winning are 1 in however many people entered the give away.

If you want to guarantee a 50% win rate, only enter in giveaways with one other person.

If you enter into 50 giveaways at random and they all have 500 entries each, you have a 0.2% chance of winning any one of them.

For reference, I've been here for just over 3 years and I've entered into 31,533 giveaways that have ended. That is including any giveaways that were deleted. I'm not going through over 630 pages to find out how many were deleted. I've won 102 of those 31,533, so my win rate is about 0.33%, though I think I'm luckier than most.

Just something to keep in mind is that the giveaways are random chance, and your performance on one giveaway has no indication on you performance to any other. The only way to increase your chances is to either enter into more giveaways or enter into ones with fewer entries.

chance to win : 1/500

probability of winning at least one game:
200 giveaways -> 33.0%
350 giveaways -> 50.3%
500 giveaways -> 63.2%
1000 giveaways -> 86.4%
2000 giveaways -> 98.1%
3000 giveaways -> 99.75%
5000 giveaways -> 99.995%

Based on your assumption that there are 500 entries per giveaway, your odd of winning is 1/500 or 0.2% or statistically you need to enter 500 giveaways to (maybe) win 1.

Your odd on not winning is 499/500 or 99.8%.

In order to have the 50-percent odd of winning at least 1 giveaway, you need to enter 347 giveaways at the same time. Of course, this is still based on the assumption of 500 entries per giveaway.

ive won 4 out of about 1500

Unlucky is when you enter a couple of dozen 2 entry giveaways and lose every time. One user entered piles of stuff for over a year before their first win.

That guy now has over 100 wins.

Entered 2536, won 17. First won was at ~800 entries. Keep trying

Entered 350 GAs, each with an average of 500 entrants?
You're not even "due" for a win yet. -_-

Took me about 1200 entries to win anything at your level. Try making a few giveaways and leveling up if you want better odds.

I've won 0 out of 1,547 entries. I'm level 1 1/2. To be fair though, I only enter giveaways for games that I'll play. If there's a chance that it will rot in my inventory without being touched, I don't enter. I recognize that this will decrease my chances. As it is, most of the giveaways that I enter have between 500 and 5,000 entries. That means my odds are not great. Still, I come back and enter anything that piques my interest. This is a free ride, so it's hard to complain when you don't win anything.

marketfire kindly gave you a table of odds here.

This is how you calculate it, for future reference:

Find the probability of not winning, then multiply that by itself the number of times you try and subtract from 1. For example:

1/500 = 0.002 chance of winning in any single giveaway
1 - 0.002 = 0.998 chance of losing in any single giveaway

• In 200 giveaways with the same odds: 0.998^200 = 67% chance of losing. 1 - 67% = 33% chance of winning

• In 350 giveaways with the same odds: 0.998^350 = 50% chance of losing. 1 - 50% = 50% chance of winning

• In 500 giveaways with the same odds: 0.998^500 = 37% chance of losing. 1- 37% = 63% chance of winning

And so on. It should be noted that even if you enter 500 giveaways with a 1:500 chance of winning, there is a very significant chance that you won't have won during that period.

You can't lose by entering, so 0%. The one person who is creating the give-away is losing the game to the lucky winner.

The chances of winning and not winning are always equal to 50%. Either you win or you don't, simple as that :P

350 entries in one year membership is not much. I needed more than 1000 to win my first game. I bet in the next two years you will win at least one game (or you try to enter in more GAs to reach the magically 1000 sooner).

I've entered a lot and recently, when I thought I was at level 2, but somehow got to level 1 for no reason, I didn't win most. Sometimes, I feel like I get scammed sometimes.