Gifts Won
13
Estimated Wins
13.47
I wanna know where my 0.47 wins are. :u
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estimated wins: 9.88
actual wins: 14
difference -4.12
I think Im doing pretty good
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The specific difference doesn't matter in regards to comparing with each other. What matters is how much more/less, in percentage, the person's estimated wins are in relation to the person's actual wins. The larger the negative difference, the more unlucky. Also note that the more entries, the more accurate the percentage difference.
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Thats correct but in the case of this post being unlucky is cool and therefore results in a positive number :) A negative number for estimated minus actual means you have won more than statistically predicted. I thought about doing it on a percentage basis but for people with zero wins it didnt make sense.
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Let me show you an example.
Here's my numbers:
Estimated Wins: 3.87
Actual Wins: 2
Entries: 1,421
This is best represented as:
"I should have won 93.5% more than I have. I have 1,421 entries."
While creating an algorithm for the accuracy of the (should have) won percentage would be ideal, it is more complicated and I don't have time to do that. Therefore, simply saying how many entries you have allows others to eyeball how accurate your (should have) won percentage, i.e. luck, may or may not be. With, as I said before, more entries being more accurate.
This is a lot more meaningful than the less-meaningful-than-it-appears numbers that are currently being posted by everyone, e.g.
Estimated Wins: 3.87
Actual Wins: 2
Difference: 1.87
Note that part of my debate here is that, for example, that 1.87 difference is almost meaningless if I have 100 actual wins, but much more meaningful as I have 2 actual wins.
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The problem is that people with zero wins then should have won infinitely more than they have. The real answer is that estimated wins is a probability distribution curve whose shape varies based on types of giveaways you enter. The truly unluckiest is the person with the least integrated area under that curve to the left of their actual wins. But that's a little less fun and very difficult to determine
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Gifts Won 30 (one was fake)
Estimated Wins 25.71
Difference = -4.29
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First off this is not a post for complaining so if you are here to say "I never win anything" try another post :)
The feature in the profile that tracks your estimated wins is intriguing to me and I am curious which Steamgifter out there is the "unluckiest" statistically. Your profile has estimated wins which is based on the chance you have of winning determined on the giveaways you typically enter. So if you entered 1000 giveaways that each had 1000 entries your estimated wins would be 1.00. If you enter more AAA giveaways with lots of entries it will take you a lot longer to get an estimated win while if you enter only group giveaways you should have more estimated wins.
To be the Unluckiest Steamgifter you must have gifted at least one game!
Post below your estimated wins minus your actual wins and the biggest positive difference between them is statistically the unluckiest member.
Anyone with a negative difference has beaten the odds and won more games than they are statistically predicted to have won.
I'll go first :)
EDIT: So far unluckiest is KuroiSama who statistically should have won 22.69 more games than actual - pretty unlucky :)
Luckiest so far is Jatan11t who has won 18.33 more games than estimated
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