Probability perspective check (for unmathy folks and those who feel shame at unwon contests)

2000 entries? That's a crapton of points.

Yup.

Also, nothing like "I haven't won in 5000 entries, so I must surely win soon" works. If such a person continues entering contests with 1000 participants each, then there is still just the 63.2% chance of winning by the time they reach 6000. And if they don't win, then the chance of winning before they reach 7000 entries is again 63.2%. Ah, sweet probability theory. :-)

im sad face theres like 50 guys who entered 60-100 and won a prize but i wenton 110 and won 0 :( so will there ever be a 100% :p?

is that binomial(500,.001)? with 1-P(X=0)?

My formula is much easier:
50% chance you win
50% chance you don't win

I vote for sticky!

That doesn't seem right though...Wouldn't it be on a giveaway by giveaway basis?

That's like saying if I play the lottery a million times I have a 20% chance of winning eventually. It's still a 1/1000 chance each time.

If u enter with 1000 ppl you have chance 0.1% and don't matter enter you first time or ten thousand time. You can win 3 times with 100 enters or 0 times with 1000 enters.

Explanation of math - first, as drumm says, a person in a contest with 1000 people has a 0.1% chance to win. That is also a 99.9% chance to lose, and if you enter, say, 1000 contests with 1000 people, that is still a 99.9% chance to lose any one of them individually. The chance to lose every single last one of them when considered as a straight set of trials, on the other hand, is .999^1000 or approximately 36.8%, and the chance that you will win at least one of those 1000 contests (no guarantees on which one) is therefore 63.2%. The gambler's fallacy chuckie mentioned is also a key thing to keep in mind when looking at stuff this way, although really the best thing to do in general is relax and enjoy the fact that this place even exists.

Tossing this thread a random bump since there's been so many people lately complaining about not having any wins.

will - i invite my frined to this awesome site
and he entry a humble bundle xD after 5 min from register he got it - What a luck

sometimes I think the probability distribution is memoryless... it doesn't matter how many times I've already entered, it's still just as low...

if I would think about probability chances and stuff... well it wouldnt be cool ;) I like to think that I have always 50% chances.. I win or I dont :)

if you’re talking d20 odds for 63.2%, better than a 7 is actually closer at 65% than better than 6 which is 70%. also i don't think most people know that a d10 is normally numbered 0 - 9 while most other dice start at 1.

Tossing this thread another much-needed bump in the chaotic flood of new members.