I started doing something like this, but I'm way too tired right now to go through all 600 of my entries.
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BTW, if you don't want to do a bunch of individual calculations, then just look over your entries history, estimate roughly what the average number of entries there were per giveaway you entered, go to your calculator, do [that number minus 1] divided by [that number], and then raise the result to the power of number of giveaways you've entered.
For example, if you entered 200 giveaways with an average of 500 entries each, it's (499/500)^200. Which is roughly 0.67. In other words, if you entered 200 giveaways with 500 entries each, you've still got only about a 1/3 chance to have won anything in any of them.
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"...it would be nice to have something like this implemented on site..."
Hell no. This is Steam Gifts not a probability and statistics class. People should learn that in school, not here.
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For those of you who are curious, but don't feel like manually entering all that data, I wrote a little excel macro that will delete rows that don't contain numbers. Just go to your "Closed" page, copy the entire table, paste into excel (should all go into a single column) and run this macro while it's selected. You'll be left with nice, pristine numbers.
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A little Math for the people which NEVER won a giveaway:
-- For each giveaway you entered, figure out the number of participants, say, N.
-- With a nice calculator (the Windows one will usually do), calculate the fraction (N-1)/N; this is the chance of you NOT winning that particular giveaway. (Exception: if there were x copies of the game in that particular giveaway, the correct fraction is instead (N-x)/N);
-- Now, multiply all the fractions you found for all the giveaways you entered; this is the chance of you NOT winning any of them. Let us call this P -- it is your "luck coefficient" (remember, big P does not mean much, while small P means very unlucky, but only if you have NEVER won anything at all);
-- So, if this number P is 0.5 or so, your "not winning" is just like flipping ONE coin and losing, which is not very unlucky at all. Even if you entered hundreds of giveaways, you will be surprised how big your P might be, specially if you are only going for Skyrims and CoDs of life. Example: 700 giveaways with 1000 entries each gives you P=0.496... so you would have a 49.6% chance of NOT winning anything. Even 1000 giveaways with 1000 entries each gives you P=0.367..., which is slightly unlucky, but not terrible at all.
-- In fact, by the very nature of chance, there WILL be people here who never won and have tiny P's... Heck, I did not do any calculations, but, with at least 58000 members who never won, I imagine there might be a few people with P<0.01! If you are one of them, ok, YOU are the unlucky 1% -- post here and cheerfully let us know that you are actually an unlucky sod.
-- If P>0.1, keep trying; if you have won something, do not complain... either way, you are not eligible for the "unluck" prize at all!
So, if you are a member who has never won anything AND have a tiny P, THEN you are allowed to complain. Let us know how tiny your P is! ;) ;) ;)
Cheers!
(Disclaimer: as far as I know, there is no actual "unluck" prize, so do not keep your hopes up on that either. And if there is one, you will end up being 2nd unluckiest person around and miss it anyway. :) :) :) )
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