Yep, I am that guy that is worried about the size of everybody's p's. ;) ;) ;)

Here is how it works. Go to your profile and find:
N=Entered Giveaways
w=Giveaway Wins
s=Estimated Wins
s/N = probability of winning EACH giveaway (assuming that all have the same number of entries)

Now go into Excel and calculate p=BINOM.DIST(w,N,s/N,1) -- watch the order. That is the probability you win w or less times (well, if all your giveaways had the same number of entries, which is the best we can do with these numbers). So, the smaller the p, the unluckier you are.

So, for example, from other threads:
c00lizz (5244,107,123.52) means p=6.991% (unlucky!)
kumori (4104,2,8.67) means p=0.807%
TheFinalBing (3795,0,5.06) means p=0.632%
Kuroisama (4528,42,66.33) p=0.0866% (Unluckiest one?)

On the other side of the scale:
RainBoom (680,6,1.93) p=99.6% (Lucky bastard!)
Arpione (1552,36,21.76) p=99.83% (!!)

11 years ago*

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61.26%

And the function is BINOM.DIST in Excel 2010 afaik.

11 years ago
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Yep, sorry, thank you, fixed that in the OP.

Myself: 69.1%. Can't complain!

11 years ago
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11 years ago
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Yep, that me. :)

11 years ago
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I got 60.71%
I still don't really get what this is telling us... is better than 50% lucky?

11 years ago
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This translates approximately as: only 40% of the users have more luck than you.

So, yes, "more than 50%" means "above-average luck here".

11 years ago
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Actually, the function tells you that the probability that there are at most 5 giveaways won out of 2139 entries (based on your profile) is 60.71%.

11 years ago
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ah, ok, makes sense. I followed up until the BINOM.DIST (binomial distribution?)

11 years ago
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I won another one and it jumped up to 71.5%!

11 years ago
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94.66%

But I have a feeling my luck ran out at the beginning.

11 years ago
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How big is my penis?

51.59%

11 years ago
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Wat.
Excel just barfs at me (excel 2007).
N=1238
w=35
s=33.62
p=s/N = 0.9605714285714286?
Then what?

11 years ago
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just convert it to a percentage!

11 years ago
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You should put that in the function. But I'll save you the trouble. Yours is 63.803%

11 years ago
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Thanks. I tried putting it into excel but it just said #name? "The formula contains unrecognised text." :D

11 years ago
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Change BINOM.DIST to BINOMDIST for Excel 2007.

11 years ago
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can someone change 0.0032181425485961 into a percentage? D:

11 years ago
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Yours is actually 84.9%.

11 years ago
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0.32181425485961%

11 years ago
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12inch :P oh wait were not talking about that... does that come later in this discussion? (I'm really surprised and ashamed that no-one made this joke yet as i thought that is what the internet does)

11 years ago
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Simonli has made the penis joke already.

11 years ago
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doesn't count if its not in correct units though... he actually answered the question at hand

11 years ago
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heh no matter what I try 1 is always the outcome :P
damn you OpenOffice Calc!

11 years ago
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Looking at your profile, yours is 98.8%. I believe Open Office is rounding the number up.

11 years ago
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You assume everyone has Excel. :(

Edit 1: Tried in Google Drive, but got an error that the number of giveaways I'd entered was too large.

Edit 2: Used this online cumulative distribution calculator and got 31.725%.

11 years ago
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I thought you meant something different when you said p

11 years ago
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enis

11 years ago
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Tried this on my TI-84 with the binompdf function. The number of entries was 2755, the probability of winning was 9.08/2755 = about 0.0033, and the actual winnings was 7. Therefore, my probability of winning was .1151. If you are using cdf (which I believe is what most people are using) then it comes out to be about .3142. Yay, I'm boring!

11 years ago
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3 inches long and 2 inches wide

11 years ago
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44.7% which means i'm a loser. Thanks.

11 years ago
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87.5% percent

11 years ago
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I'm not sure I did it correctly, but I arrived at 20.77%. Not that unlucky, yet, but I'm working hard on it.

11 years ago
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check mine . I'm from mobile .

11 years ago
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All the innuendos~

11 years ago
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Disturbing title.

11 years ago
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11 years ago
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Thank you! Finally, some credit! :)

11 years ago
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P

11 years ago
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0.46% ... >.<

EDIT: aaaaaah now I understand :D ... 36,05% ...that's little better ;D

11 years ago
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My new stats are:
N = 1552
w = 37
s = 21.84
BINOM.DIST(w,N,s/N,1) = 99.9%
My p is huge :)

11 years ago
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I thinks I misunderstood
still 0.1641 though...
BINOM.DIST(4,2437,14.1/2437,1)*100

11 years ago
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18 centimeters

11 years ago
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Closed 11 years ago by Thexder.