61.26%
And the function is BINOM.DIST in Excel 2010 afaik.
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Actually, the function tells you that the probability that there are at most 5 giveaways won out of 2139 entries (based on your profile) is 60.71%.
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94.66%
But I have a feeling my luck ran out at the beginning.
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12inch :P oh wait were not talking about that... does that come later in this discussion? (I'm really surprised and ashamed that no-one made this joke yet as i thought that is what the internet does)
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You assume everyone has Excel. :(
Edit 1: Tried in Google Drive, but got an error that the number of giveaways I'd entered was too large.
Edit 2: Used this online cumulative distribution calculator and got 31.725%.
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I thought you meant something different when you said p
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Tried this on my TI-84 with the binompdf function. The number of entries was 2755, the probability of winning was 9.08/2755 = about 0.0033, and the actual winnings was 7. Therefore, my probability of winning was .1151. If you are using cdf (which I believe is what most people are using) then it comes out to be about .3142. Yay, I'm boring!
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I'm not sure I did it correctly, but I arrived at 20.77%. Not that unlucky, yet, but I'm working hard on it.
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I thinks I misunderstood
still 0.1641 though...
BINOM.DIST(4,2437,14.1/2437,1)*100
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Yep, I am that guy that is worried about the size of everybody's p's. ;) ;) ;)
Here is how it works. Go to your profile and find:
N=Entered Giveaways
w=Giveaway Wins
s=Estimated Wins
s/N = probability of winning EACH giveaway (assuming that all have the same number of entries)
Now go into Excel and calculate p=BINOM.DIST(w,N,s/N,1) -- watch the order. That is the probability you win w or less times (well, if all your giveaways had the same number of entries, which is the best we can do with these numbers). So, the smaller the p, the unluckier you are.
So, for example, from other threads:
c00lizz (5244,107,123.52) means p=6.991% (unlucky!)
kumori (4104,2,8.67) means p=0.807%
TheFinalBing (3795,0,5.06) means p=0.632%
Kuroisama (4528,42,66.33) p=0.0866% (Unluckiest one?)
On the other side of the scale:
RainBoom (680,6,1.93) p=99.6% (Lucky bastard!)
Arpione (1552,36,21.76) p=99.83% (!!)
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