Was talking to someone and noticed that a new stat appeared on the profile. Wonder how it works~
It seems like the estimated wins is how many wins you should statistically have based on your giveaway entries.
For example if you enter only 100 giveaways each with 1000 entries; your estimate would be 0.10. If you entered only 50 giveaways but each with 5 entries, you estimate would be 10.00.
Cheers! :D
Edit: It disappeared, I smell ninjas at work ._.
Edit2: It's back
Edit3: Seems like the algorithm has been updated

11 years ago*

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nope, I see it too. It says you have 23.91 estimated wins

11 years ago
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Haha! I'm luckier than Rysix!

11 years ago
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screw you D:

11 years ago
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Whoa, that's cool! :)

11 years ago
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Oooh I see it. Don't really understand what it's based on, but it's 21.56 for me.

11 years ago
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Updated :D

11 years ago
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Oh, I see. Guess I'm luckier than I thought :)

11 years ago
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In that case I want my 1.5 wins.

11 years ago
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Same, I want my 1.27 wins :p

11 years ago
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And I want my 0.4 win !

11 years ago
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I want my 0.04 wins!!

11 years ago
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you would think that people who exploit 3 person group purchase swapping wouldnt wanna draw attention to themselves (the 3 above you)

11 years ago
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lololol, nice spot.

11 years ago
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It's somewhat accurate.

11 years ago
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Just an a another attempt to make people think what SG random is random.

11 years ago
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It takes the total entries of everything you've entered for, and divides it by your actual entries... so, theoretically it is ~accurate, quest a question of whether or not the law of averages applies to the numbers, and luck. (Luck variation will decrease as values bring theoretical and actual values closer together with more data.)

11 years ago
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That's the problem with probabilities. Sure, you have a 50-50 chance of flipping "heads" on a coin with each try, but that doesn't mean you ever will. It's possible (albeit unlikely) to never flip "heads," ever.

11 years ago
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I used my mod powers to steal 1.09 giveaways from you all. What you gonna do 'bout it? Punk.

11 years ago
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Good luck without the other 91% of a giveaway. Joke's on you.

11 years ago
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We are pretty close :o

11 years ago
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nice if its accurate :)

11 years ago
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Its baaaack!

11 years ago
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That's... a really cool feature. (I'd like my 3.57 wins now please)

11 years ago
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Mine is 52.02 but i dont know what does it mean?

11 years ago
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nearly perfect on me. lol

11 years ago
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It's there for me. Wonder how it's calculated and what it's supposed to tell us. Is it the collected overall odds (If you use the browser extension every giveaway you enter shows your odds of winning) of every giveaway we entered and how many times we should have been able to win, from a statistical standpoint?

Mine is 7.86 and I have won 8 games. So it's about right.

My guess is this can be used for two things:

A: Telling if you're truly "unlucky"- Unless your "estimated wins" is a solid number and you still haven't won anything, you probably just need to hang in there and aren't getting screwed by karma. Even then it would take a fairly wide gap. For shits and gigs lets say I won once but entered enough giveaways that I should have 10 games by now. This may dispel people from posting "I entered x giveaways and haven't won anything".

B: It would make a half-assed way of figuring out if you're "due", I imagine. Once my "Estimated Wins" creeps past 8 and toward 9 I'll start wondering what my next win will be. Not to be taken as gospel of course, but a vague indicator.

11 years ago
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This will only bring up more forum posts, as long as it's not explained in the FAQ

11 years ago
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Deleted

This comment was deleted 1 year ago.

11 years ago
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21 wins. 24.32 estimated. Contacting support now to make them give me my 3.32. So angreh.

11 years ago
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3.32 copies of Bad Rats.

11 years ago
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That will teach him

11 years ago
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damn sure it will xD

11 years ago
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Yes! I'm a lucky bastard! I have 26,56 estimated wins and I've won 27 TIMES :D

11 years ago
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27 wins and 21.56 estimated. I be luckier than you! :P

11 years ago
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Y U no cry anymore? -.-

11 years ago
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Estimated Wins:19.29
Gifts Won: 27

Where is your god now? :P

11 years ago
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REPORT!!!!~

11 years ago
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Wow, and I thought I was lucky to have 25. Cool feature.

11 years ago
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We should have a running competition to see who has the widest estimate to win gap. You're taking it so far.

11 years ago
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Toaster i suppose.

11 years ago
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Toaster's actually up on wins. Also I'm ahead of Dack in terms of widest gap (ratio-wise) :D

11 years ago
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Good god, I can just imagine the QQing.

11 years ago
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Nah, I just won one more, but I still beat that. I think there's someone worse off than me somewhere in here though, but I move past the whiners too fast to remember.

11 years ago
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I like the new feature, seems fairly accurate and informative.

11 years ago
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Mine is 32.44 -_- it feels like i havnt won in ages

11 years ago
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You won Red Faction: Armageddon 3 days ago...

11 years ago
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4 games in the past 4 weeks is pretty guud. :p

11 years ago
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169 wins
estimated 169.18
:D

11 years ago
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Lol it's pretty cool thing :)

11 years ago
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Neat feature :>

11 years ago
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Gifts Won: 1
Estimated Wins: 3.47

:( where are my other 2.47 wins?

11 years ago
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I ate them

11 years ago
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So he will receive them in a couple hours? ;-)

11 years ago
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No, tomorrow morning. They need a few more hours of processing.

11 years ago
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How do you enter almost 4000 giveaways and only have 3 estimated wins? Do you like, only enter AAA games? Like damn.

11 years ago
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I only really enter games that i want. Things like half life 2, before i bought it in the winter sale, bioshock, assasins creed, so yeah, pretty much AAA titles.
I could have entered all of the DOTA2, the ship or indie movie giveaways, but i dont want any of those games.

11 years ago
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You DIDN'T enter every single DOTA 2 giveaway? What is WRONG with you?

11 years ago
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... im not interested in that game in any way

11 years ago
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WEEIIRRDDOOO

11 years ago
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I took roughly 6 gifts from you, guys. Shame on me.

11 years ago
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That's ok, I saw that you gave back more than that. You're forgiven.

I took 0.17 away from others myself....

11 years ago
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Gifts Won
111
Estimated Wins
125.86
:(

11 years ago
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Closed 11 years ago by Solnaga.