It takes the total entries of everything you've entered for, and divides it by your actual entries... so, theoretically it is ~accurate, quest a question of whether or not the law of averages applies to the numbers, and luck. (Luck variation will decrease as values bring theoretical and actual values closer together with more data.)
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That's the problem with probabilities. Sure, you have a 50-50 chance of flipping "heads" on a coin with each try, but that doesn't mean you ever will. It's possible (albeit unlikely) to never flip "heads," ever.
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I used my mod powers to steal 1.09 giveaways from you all. What you gonna do 'bout it? Punk.
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It's there for me. Wonder how it's calculated and what it's supposed to tell us. Is it the collected overall odds (If you use the browser extension every giveaway you enter shows your odds of winning) of every giveaway we entered and how many times we should have been able to win, from a statistical standpoint?
Mine is 7.86 and I have won 8 games. So it's about right.
My guess is this can be used for two things:
A: Telling if you're truly "unlucky"- Unless your "estimated wins" is a solid number and you still haven't won anything, you probably just need to hang in there and aren't getting screwed by karma. Even then it would take a fairly wide gap. For shits and gigs lets say I won once but entered enough giveaways that I should have 10 games by now. This may dispel people from posting "I entered x giveaways and haven't won anything".
B: It would make a half-assed way of figuring out if you're "due", I imagine. Once my "Estimated Wins" creeps past 8 and toward 9 I'll start wondering what my next win will be. Not to be taken as gospel of course, but a vague indicator.
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This will only bring up more forum posts, as long as it's not explained in the FAQ
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Yes! I'm a lucky bastard! I have 26,56 estimated wins and I've won 27 TIMES :D
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Nah, I just won one more, but I still beat that. I think there's someone worse off than me somewhere in here though, but I move past the whiners too fast to remember.
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I like the new feature, seems fairly accurate and informative.
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How do you enter almost 4000 giveaways and only have 3 estimated wins? Do you like, only enter AAA games? Like damn.
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I only really enter games that i want. Things like half life 2, before i bought it in the winter sale, bioshock, assasins creed, so yeah, pretty much AAA titles.
I could have entered all of the DOTA2, the ship or indie movie giveaways, but i dont want any of those games.
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You DIDN'T enter every single DOTA 2 giveaway? What is WRONG with you?
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That's ok, I saw that you gave back more than that. You're forgiven.
I took 0.17 away from others myself....
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Was talking to someone and noticed that a new stat appeared on the profile. Wonder how it works~
It seems like the estimated wins is how many wins you should statistically have based on your giveaway entries.
For example if you enter only 100 giveaways each with 1000 entries; your estimate would be 0.10. If you entered only 50 giveaways but each with 5 entries, you estimate would be 10.00.
Cheers! :D
Edit: It disappeared, I smell ninjas at work ._.
Edit2: It's back
Edit3: Seems like the algorithm has been updated
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