Are you lucky?
"Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won about 0.0 of them"
Well, that can't be right...
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Ooh, interesting. Are you running any other userscripts that might be affecting that page? Also, what browser?
How many pages of entered GAs do you have?
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I am running Steamgifts++ and Steamgifts Whitelist Tools. I am on FF.
Got 158 pages of entered GAs.
Edit : Deactivated both. Still dooesn't work.
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Ah, it might be a Firefox problem. Will test it now.
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Could you try this version and let me know if you see the same results?
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Still 0.0 for me. :/ Thanks for the effort though :)
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On line 30 of the script, there's a commented out line (something like // console.debug(copies, entries, copies / entries)). Would you mind un-commenting it (removing the //) and looking at your Javascript console (Ctrl+Shift+i, select the Console tab) when you check your expected result and seeing if you get any output? Don't need to see it all, a couple of them should suffice - although if you see a negative number let me know!
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Looked a bit into the script and now I know why it doesn't work.
If I go to the last page manually it worked so it clearly got stuck somewhere in the code.
In line 17 where you try to fetch the last page with the use of the "last" button it wont work since there is no last button.
I am a bit familiar with programming myself but I am very rusty :/
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Okay - I think I've got it now. If you don't mind trying again, I've updated it such that it should almost certainly work...
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Odd question, but could you confirm that at the bottom of the entered GAs page you have something like "Displaying 1 to 50 of X results", where X is the number of GAs you've entered?
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Usually I would yeah. But now I have SG++ activated again and it also works with it :)
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I get different values for different pages. From page 1 it's always 0, for page 50 it's something else, for page 100 also etc
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Yeah, you'll be encountering the same issue - if there's no "Last" link, it will find the "Next" link page number, meaning when it tries to analyse your wins, it looks at the first page up to page after the one you've got selected, but goes no further. I've tried to fix my script to ignore that - although I think there is a potential for some double counting if you have fewer than 200 pages of entered GAs.
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Non-zero but small results can be reasonable, but based on the giveaways you've won, it doesn't seem likely. Will continue investigating!
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FYI, I changed the number of pages from 200 to 300.
I tried installing on Chrome, but I appear to have installed the Tampermonkey app instead of the extension and now I can't install the latter and can't remove the former. Obviously I don't use Chrome much.
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Could you try this version and let me know if you see the same results?
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Entered about 1000 giveaways and won 3,is that good or bad? :D
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Honestly, it depends on what kind of GA you're entering. If you're mostly entering high value public GAs that have a lot of other entries, it's quite likely you won't win many. If you spend your days scrolling through the forums for private GAs with few other competitors, you're doing badly!
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I am usually entering GAs for max 5P and with max 1000 entries :D So its bad? haha
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I've released a new version that might fix some of the low numbers people are getting. Please also temporarily disable other userscripts that affect SG whilst using mine - I'm not going to be able to adapt my script to handle all possible cases.
The URL has changed too sadly: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/kelnage/sg-lucky-punk/master/Do%20You%20Feel%20Lucky%2C%20Punk.user.js
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Tried this one-- on Chrome-- and still got 0.7. Oh well. I'm sure I'm some weird edge condition. Thanks anyway for the script.
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entered in 1,216 giveways.....just win 1.....yeap......i never had luck anyway ¯_(ツ)_/¯
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Here I'm okay I guess. Signed up not even a mounth ago, 2 wins in 1.361 GA, even if they are little games with not many entries. In Steamcompanions I won 14 games in less than an year, but there are more chance in there, sooo yeah. No reason to complain.
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won 4 games here ,joined Steamcompanions at the same time and have won zero over there.
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"Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won about 0.0 of them"
I guess I'm pretty lucky? :P
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I've fixed bug that caused the 0.0 result - if you could re-install the latest version of the userscript, it will now hopefully work!
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 35.7 of them
Not bad
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won about 57.7 of them
57.7? Damn, my actual wins are better than my odds!
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Potato.
Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won about 9.9 of them
And I've won 10.
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won about 110.0 of them
I'm pretty close to 110 ^^
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I was doing that manually (copy pasting each page of my entries to an Open Office Calc spreadsheet that I have set up to do all the calculations for me) for a while. Haven't updated it for a while, but when I had 46 real wins, I had 53.27 estimated wins, so -7.27 wins, or roughly 15% less wins than estimated, so a bit unlucky.
Hope you get the script working properly, it would be very nice to check it the easy way instead! I like looking at stats :D
I get the following (Firefox, 125 pages of ended giveaways):
Do You Feel Lucky, Punk? Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won about 0.5 of them
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Yeah, sorry - my first linked version doesn't update itself - could you try the following userscript:
(If you have more than 100 but less than 200 pages of entered giveaways, the results may be incorrect)
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New one seems to be working, great :D
Expected:93.0
Won: 83
Sounds very plausible.
Now to win those last 10 games ;)
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Might be worth retrying with the newest version of my script (1.0.0) - there's a possibility it was over-counting some of your entries.
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New one says 89.3.
I'll finish my manual check some day and compare, but somewhere between 6-10 less wins than expected sounds very plausible.
Thanks again for doing this script ,you earned a spot on my whitelist :)
If you want any suggestions on improvements, I would say: Add a percentage comparison between the expected and real wins:
Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 89.3 of them. You have won 92.9% of your expected amount of wins (or similar, with better English ;D)
The reason for using percentage is that 92.9% says more than just seeing it as 6 wins "missing".
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 256.5 of them
Yeah, I'm more lucky than that... FAR more lucky :3.
Actually this is because of 200 pages limit ;_;
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If you're comfortable with editing a userscript, you can increase the number of pages looked at (MAX_PAGES) - but I'd also recommend increasing MAX_DURATION proportionally (so if you double MAX_PAGES to 400, increase MAX_DURATION to 120) - for SteamGifts sake.
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"Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won about 10.7 of them"
I only have 6 ;'(
So unlucky!
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So you take account of all pages of entered giveaways?
Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won about 2.3 of them
you mean that I should have won 2.3 giveaways out of the 18210 I've entered?
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No. As I stated in my OP, I restricted the script to request no more than 200 pages. Also, if you're still using the old version (linked at the very top) there are some bugs, which I've ironed out in my latest release:
I think I need to start a new thread with a fixed link and a reserved comment...
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You can always edit and update your topic instead of creating a new one...
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 631.2 of them
That seems like a much better calculation ;)
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Why on earth you aren't editing your initial post?
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I have now found out how to edit posts - thanks all!
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won about 2.1 of them
ummm... does this take groups, WL giveaways into account? I won a little more than 2.1 :D
edit: updated the script with the one linked here, it says 126.5 of them - that's more correct for the last year-year+ of 200 pages :)
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expected wins 11.2. actual wins 12.
pretty damn accurate :)
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Cool tool
Won 5, calculated 3.9 :D
If you are on Firefox you can just press F12 and go to console where you can paste the code and press enter.
Keep in mind you have to be on your GA entered page for it to work ;)
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 1580.5 of them.
THIS SITE IS A SCAM! I DEMAND MY 129 MISSING GAMES!!!!1111ONEONELEVEN
jk
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Yay, it works now! And it confirms what I already knew-- that I'm unlucky. :)
Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 83.1 of them
My 62 wins is 74.6% of what I "should" have won. Still, 62 wins is pretty nice. :)
I should look at the script and see if there's a way I can exclude, say, the first couple months of my SG life when I was a bit too indiscriminate about the GAs I entered. Not to mention a few of my wins I either had already bought (but hadn't removed my entries) and didn't know I could just request a re-roll, or became bundled a few days later. But oh well. :)
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Excluding the first couple of months won't improve your expected wins tool - expectation is purely additive (you never reduce your chances of winning by entering a GA rather than not). If you were plotting your expected wins over time, you'd see a difference, but with a total it is irrelevant.
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It wasn't a mathematical statement, it was more that I care more about how lucky I have been since I tightened up my entry requirements a couple of months into my SG career.
Also, it would be interesting to test my perception of how lucky I've been at different times. I feel like I was very unlucky in December/January/into Februrary, but I don't know this. It would be fun to set range filters.
Anyway, thank you for fixing the bugs not to mention writing the script in the first place...it was an interesting exercise.
I'm sure somebody's told you there used to be an "expected win" field on your...profile I guess it was? It predates me, but I assume it did something like what your script does. And I assume it was removed because unlucky people kept complaining or something. :)
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By the way, I've added functionality to the latest version of the script that allows you to plot your daily expected wins, which will kinda allow you to do what you're looking for.
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I should have won 0.8 of a game. I feel 0.8 cheated, and 0.2 done right by. XD
(I guess I must be close to my first win though!!)
XD
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Very cool script! I thought about making it myself but thank you for saving me the effort :-)
305 expected wins, 298 actual wins.. guess I'm pretty average :-)
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I dont understand how that works :c
No idea what Greasemonkey/Tampermonkey is >.<
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You'll need to be using either Firefox or Chrome to use this extension.
How to install userscripts in Chrome: http://techsupportguides.com/install-userscripts-in-chrome/
How to install userscripts in Firefox: http://ooiks.com/blog/mousehunt-autobot/install-uninstall-user-script-on-firefox
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 24.2 of them
I've been cheated. I have only won 17 ><
Anyhow nice script :)
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Not bad
Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 12.0 of them
I won 13. And 3 of them during the past 2 days. ;)
Edit:
If I may make a suggestion: Add a calculation how unlucky we were since our last win. Just like "Since your last win, you should have won X games."
Would tell us if our recent streak is really as unlucky, as we often imagine. No idea how complicated it would be to identify the last win though.
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 81.1 of them.
Gifts Won: 83
Yay for the law of big numbers?
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Well, do ya?
I've noticed quite a few people complaining that they aren't winning as many GAs as they'd like. Well, I have a little stats knowledge and plenty of programming knowledge, so I thought I'd make a user script that looks over your GA entries and see how many times you'd actually expect to have won, which you can compare to your actual wins and either feel awesome or have something else to complain about!
It's a standard Greasemonkey/Tampermonkey userscript - please let me know if you have any problems using it. It will add a link to the top of your Entered GAs page (http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaways/entered) and will look back at all entered GAs when you click on the link. Don't expect results immediately - the process could take a while (mostly to avoid overloading SG).
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/kelnage/sg-lucky-punk/master/Do%20You%20Feel%20Lucky%2C%20Punk.user.js
Happy with the results? Or do you want to console yourself in your unluckiness? This thread is the best place to talk about it - thanks to super-user tso184 for creating it.
Edit: thanks for all your feedback. If you got a weird result (significantly lower or higher than you'd expect), please make sure you've got the latest version (by following the above link) and I think I have ironed out most of the issues people initially saw.
Edit (2016/03/22): new functionality! You can now see your daily expected wins on a bar plot (thanks to plot.ly for their fantastic JS plotting library). The userscript will now take a little longer to initially load (due to caching of the remote script) but once that's done it should be as fast as usual.
Edit (2016/03/26): now you can plot your actual wins against expected wins. See when you've been lucky or otherwise. Also includes a percentage "luckiness" (or unluckiness if less than 100%).
Edit (2016/03/28): fixed incompatibility with Extended Steamgifts userscript.
Edit (2016/03/29): changed phrasing of percentage (un)luckiness since I didn't make what it meant clear. Also excluding GAs between June and October 2014 due to a database corruption at that time.
Edit (2016/03/31): released version 1.5.1, caching results, so after your first time, the results will appear much quicker. Also changed behaviour of graph to show a constant line when no changes have happened (i.e. between wins or no GAs entered).
Edit (2016/04/14): thanks to the sharp eyed luizfcsilveira, I've found a bug in my script that meant all GAs giving away 1000+ copies of games were being ignored. The new version (1.5.4) fixes this. It will automatically clear your cached results when you first run it sadly, but it will also make your expected wins more correct!
Edit (2016/04/19): released version 1.6.0, which now shows future expected wins values (based on the number of entries when the script is run). Also works when searching for a specific game.
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