i won stuff so i consider myself very lucky, i dont need these graphs, maths and solid evidence to tell me how to feel :v
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Yay, it says that I won one more gift than I should have \o/
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That is because, in your mind, losses loom larger than gains. The psychological mechanisms underpinning this effect are well documented. Your recent dry spell only serves to exacerbate the effect. In other words, it is perfectly normal to perceive yourself as being unlucky even if there is evidence to suggest otherwise.
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Whatever that graph says, I consider myself lucky, and I'm very grateful for all the chances and gifts I've received since I joined this site.
Problably they will never see this post, but many thanks to all the generous people that made them possible ^_^
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I don't know if it's said anywhere, but if folk are interested, this is the way the value is calculated: for each giveaway you enter you get a fraction with the number of copies as the numerator and the number of entries as the denominator. 3 copies and 11 entries? The fraction is 3/11. Sum up all the fractions from every giveaway and you get a number, then rounded to the nearest unit you get the expected number of wins.
So if you've won 1 game, and you go from "expected you to win 2 more" to "expected you to win 3 more" this means the sum of the fractions has gone from something like 3.49 to something like 3.51
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Only God can decide if you are lucky or unlucky, mortal.
Well, not very lucky I guess.
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