The only thing that doesn't make sense are the two points you listed. I didn't overlook the puzzle if thats what you are trying to say and I didn't say whining about a lack of wins is ok but I didn't say it isn't either... All I said was wait until the reason to whine is great enough before considering it, whiners will whine but hopefully when they get to the stage of considering it they will decide against it. And as gracious as it is for the OP to give away a game it could have been done in a better thread IMHO.
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If someone's making a thread to conceal something, you still take the content of that thread as meant in earnest? Wow. The best way to conceal something is to divert attention, or not even arouse suspicion. Hence, you conceal your entire intent by making a fake QQ thread.
Anyway, let's read the rest of your post.
"All I said was wait until the reason to whine is great enough before considering it" - no, you said, quite specifically, that your estimated wins must be 2 x your actual wins before you should consider whining ("..even think about complaining.."). If you meant "great enough" (i.e. something non-specific), you should have said precisely that. Or, make the definition of your "acceptable level of disparity between estimated wins and actual wins to consider whining" less distinct - something like "considering you have 18 wins so far dont even think about complaining until your estimated wins reaches at least something like 36 (twice) or more."
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Considering its an opinionated comment suggesting that a great enough actual wins to estimated wins ratio would be 2 is acceptable. Last I checked this is not a forum for discussing exact figures, however if you wished to try to justify why regarding such a ratio as unlucky enough you would have to calculate what one standard deviation in regards to a greater or lesser ratios between actual and estimated wins is equal to and then justify how many standard deviations out a person has to be to be considered unlucky (the most common chosen value is 2 since approx since only 5% of people are a greater quantity of standard deviations off 0 of which 2.5% of people would be less lucky). This in itself is not particularly hard except that due to the nature of ratios you would actually have to use a logarithmic model of the normal distribution curve (lognormal distribution curve). So in short in two opinionated forum posts saying that both a specific ratio which I can justify and a great enough figure (I have already stated what I believe that to be) should be used to determine when to consider QQing is completely acceptable.
There is no reason why adding the words "at least something like" to my original post would add value to my point as the word "reaches" implies that any value beyond that would be justifiable as it has met the criteria and reached the stated value.
And like I said in my previous post I am well aware that the intentions of the OP were to conceal the giveaway in a thread that diverts attention but I personally believe there would be many far better choices for thread topics that conceal giveaways than a QQ thread ever can, although I accept that the OP might feel differently about it I personally do not encourage or look overly kindly on such topics being used for this kind of purpose.
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Just when this was going to turn into an in depth maths debate :/
On another note though I believe you have done more gifting than you originally expected! For those that could be bothered to solve the puzzle you have presented a game, and to me you gave a great thread with plenty of option for discussing, I'm not being sarcastic or anything I actually mean it <3
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Discussion is good, I enjoy discussion, and I have read your notes on how I presented this thread. Although I mostly disagree, you're entitled to your opinion, perhaps the pretend QQ was not the best option, but it seemed to have given me the results I wanted :D
Also I do class myself as very lucky to have won the amount of games I have, and the difference between my two ratios doesn't particularly bother me :)
I hope to do more puzzles in the future, so feedback is always welcome regarding the presentation!
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Haha yeah this could easily be regarded as progress towards creating the perfect hidden giveaway thread. Of course everyone's idea of the perfect giveaway thread is different, but I will be keeping my eyes peeled to see what you come up with next.
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It would be too easy to solve and the surprise of finding a very witty thread with a hidden giveaway would be ruined if I told you how to do it mate. (That and if I knew I would make one myself lol)
I was a little surprised to see this one here wasnt from you though. Seems like someone may have ripped off your idea :/
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random chance teamed with hundreds or thousands of entries.
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SteamGifts runs on the simple principal of probability...
While the probability of success can be tweaked by the contributor (by adding a contribution requirement, making it a group / private giveaway OR providing multiple copies), it ultimately falls upon the users who enter to decide the probability.
The average probability for general public giveaways can vary from 10.152% down to 0.015%. While it does seem fairly improbable of success, it's still a lot better than any lottery.
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Seriously, how does anyone win games.?
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