There is this theory that states that when making a guess about an amount of marble's in a Pot, taking the average of a groups guesses will get closer then the best guess of a single person.
I take it that you're referring to what that British TV-magician claimed he did, in order to mask how he actually did his trick? Yeah, it was utter bogus, that's not how random chance works. He's a stage magician, lighthearted deception is what he does for a living (though in this case, I would argue that it steps out of lighthearted deception and into full on deception). Remember, he did not do the trick in front of a live audience, so all he had to do was to do some video trickery to get the thing to work.
23, 5, 14, 41, 32
2, 3
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I think he's talking about this, sort of -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd
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Wisdom of the crowd was what the stage magician claimed he used in order to get the lottery numbers right. But there's a difference between if you're trying to apply the idea of "Wisdom of the crowd" to figure out something that a certain subset of the crowd already will know, like say the date of the Battle of Hastings, and a random number.
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But in this case the random number is not really "random". The number of marbles in a pot has one and only one solution and the probability space instead of being from 0 to infinity can be reduced to a finite number. That's what peoples do when they take a guess, they mentally put a limit to the probability space of the experiment in question and pick one result.
With the example of the pot this theory works, the crowd will collectively restrict this "not so random" number in a range chosen by common sense (can't put one trillion marbles in a pot, nor can there be 3 marbles in a pot full of them) and eventually define a mean and a median quite near to the exact number.
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If the marbles are properly mixed, then it can be viewed as a truly random system, as any marble has an equally large chance of getting picked. If they don't mix their marbles, well then the lottery commission will have something to say about that, as that's a rigged system. If there are 50 random marbles, and you need to get every single one of your 5 guesses right , then the probability of that is (5/50)(4/49)(3/48)(2/47)(1/46) (and if you include the bonus numbers *(2/10)(1/9)). This does not change if you have a large crowd guessing the numbers, or if you're one person doing it. And every possible outcome has an equal chance of happening, be it 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or the numbers I posted above or whatever the average of all guesses here are.
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No one was talking about picking the marbles, the op example said to guess the total number of the marbles in the pot, you are describing a totally different problem.
Maybe there has been a misunderstanding from the beginning of the discussion.
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Yeah, I guess so. What exactly is the lottery in question? Because it's implied earlier in this thread that it's Eurojackpot. But even if it's an entire different lottery where you've actually got pots with a number of marbles that are distributed in some way, it would have to be truly random, otherwise one could mathematically calculate which numbers have a higher chance of winning and which ones don't, and then go with the ones that have a higher chance of winning.
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Well, I don't think the op was talking about lottery when referring to the wisdom of the crowd theory since it requires some sort of quantity estimation based on a shared knowledge among the crowd to work.
As for the example above, estimation about the number of marbles in a pot based on the dimension of the marbles and the pot, both physical objects and thus of finite volume, so you can put an upper and lower limit to the number of marbles and then take a guess (inside those limits) based on your personal experience.
Anyway, the op replied below and clarified the meaning in his first post, he hopes in some help from the sg RNGod ;)
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correct thats what i was talking about, doesnt work on lotery's though, but i am hoping that if i add some SteamGifters Luck i might get lucky :)
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Awesome results, i will be moving to a tropical island soon!
going to live broke on the beach...
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My Fellow SteamGifters...
There is this theory that states that when making a guess about an amount of marble's in a Pot, taking the average of a groups guesses will get closer then the best guess of a single person.
Well i love buying a few lotery tickets, but as unlucky as i am. i never win.
So i would like to change my numbers..
If you would all be so kind to give me 5 numbers in between the range of 1 to 50 and 2 numbers in the range of 1 to10, i will take all the given numbers and see wich one are the most given and make that my lottery ticket :) I will harvest the numbers untill the GiveAwayS ends.
public GA:
GA: level 1:
GA level 2:
GA: level 3:
Gibs have been send, please mark received :)
UPDATE: Taking numbers is closed....
Calculating results........
And The Results:
In total there were 122 valid and on time entries,
The Top Picked 1- 50 numbers Are:
13 (27 times)
23 (25 times)
7 (24 times)
3 (23 times)
42 (19 times)
Runner up number: 5 (17 times)
And The most picked Bonus numbers 1- 10:
2 (35 times)
3 (35 times)
Runner up: 7 (32 times)
The least picked:
40 (5 times)
50 (5 times)
29 (4 times)
34 (3 times)
30 (2 times)
Runner up: 22 (picked 6 times)
Least picked bonus numbers:
10 (10 times)
1 (16 times)
6 (16 times)
Thank you for helping me out, Now hoping the Steamgifters luck has been rubbed off on those numbers :)
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