I see people complaining about that all the time, posting topics like "1000 Entries & Reached 1 Estim. Win but No Gift Won?"
(They're called "emmenic topics" in Chinese because they've been posted in every period of time.)

Here I'm going to explain that in terms of math.

Explanation

We know that: lim(n->∞)(1+1/n)^n = e (a constant roughly equals 2.718)
Thus, lim(x->∞)(1-1/x)^x = 1/e = 0.368 (approx.)
As x>50, this approximation is applicable.

What does it mean?

For instants, if you keep entering giveaways which have 200 entries, the probability that you will reach 1 estimated win but you have not won anything is:

(1-1/200)^200 = 0.367

Which means you have a prob. of 36.7% (more than 1/3) reaching 1 estimated win with no gift won. Get it?
That is, more than 1/3 of us had no gift won by the time our estim. win reached 1.
Further, more than 1/9 .............................................ditto............................................. = 2.

And so on.

Hence, its more probable for you to reach 5 est. win with no game won (chance 1/148) than to win a g.a. with 150 enties.

Correction is welcomed if I wrote anything wrong.
And thanks for reading. MERRY CHRISTMAS!

P.S. Who said I was complaining? I was just doing math.

10 years ago*

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thanks

10 years ago
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Stop complaining about complaining outside of complaint threads. There will still be threads upon threads of this bullshit and you're just making another worthless thread. The math behind it all is simple enough that anyone who fails to understand it is stupid enough to bitch and be a leech while they're at it. Good morning.

10 years ago
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+

10 years ago
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I agree %100. To me this topic is some attention seeking dude who has just learned 11th grade math and is just trying to be a smartass about it.

10 years ago
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YA D00D WHY U COMPLAIN ABOUT COMPLAINZ?!?!?

Seriously, you wanted to be that guy?

10 years ago
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Dat Logic

10 years ago
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Dat necro.

10 years ago
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Thanks for Skyrim!

10 years ago
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BURN THE HERETIC!

10 years ago
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This comment was deleted 4 years ago.

10 years ago
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Finally this!

10 years ago
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Threads like this are 10 times more annoying...

10 years ago
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I won 5 giveaways today, from about 10 pages of entries (250 entries) with about 70 average entries each (edit: maybe 100 actually). Please calculate the chances of that mr. maths genius :)

10 years ago
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so you are telling us that you joined 250 giveaways that had 50 entries each, without being in a ton of giveaway groups?

10 years ago
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Well, then it actually is possible

10 years ago
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tbh you don't need to be a genius to calculate mathematically your chances of winning, I mean, this isn't some kind of rocket science! If you learn maths/statistics/probability at the higher levels (like college maths ++?) won't you know about this?

10 years ago
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Even a math student won't calculate such a thing; a statician or an engineer, maybe

10 years ago
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It's not that hard, really. It's just the probability of being selected two hundred fifty independent tests out of seventy participants in each. My very rusty theory of probability skills (which I don't really have) tell me that it'll be 1/7817031300.

10 years ago
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won't doesn't mean can't. it's not mathematician's job to calculate and she/he asks about the chance of winning 5 out of such giveaways.

So there is 250 statistically independent (assuming this so-called "random" in winner selection doesn't include estimated wins) tests with possibility of winning: 1/70 (check the above parenthesis). Possibility for winning 5 of them will be given by

(Binomial[250, 5])times ((1/70)^5)times(((1-(1/70))^(250-5))

I will not calculate this because of the aforementioned reason

10 years ago
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Yhm

10 years ago
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Usually this much math leads to a giveaway! Not this time I guess! Sadly people are gonna keep complaining inspite of your mathematical explanation. Probably because it's an "emmenic topic" as you said!

10 years ago
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Thank you for this enlightening post, but the question is, will those who complained/are complaining/are planning to complain read this?

10 years ago
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Lol.. When someone dont know what giveavays enter thats the problem... I always look at the start time of giveavay and how many time it is open. And i won now 2 games in ~1,3 entres ;)

10 years ago
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And then there was me, who had like 6 wins by the time I reached 1 estimated.

10 years ago
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i dont know bout the math didnt even bothered my self with that part... but i reached over 1.1k entries and no wins and no one heard me complaining... heck why should i?? its gambling sometimes u win some times u dont u just need to wait for it xD any way good luck all to your ga's entered

10 years ago
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TCGYI-UF91Q-RDLT4-1T1IZ-8LG25 Desura key.

10 years ago
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thx for battle group. I guess ninjas ran away after seeing math

10 years ago
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you are welcome=)

10 years ago
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No won. :(

10 years ago
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Here's an anti-complaint for you: I recently won 2 giveaways with +600 entries each within 24h, check my profile ;)

10 years ago
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You don't need to boast dude. :P

10 years ago
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Well it was just a "bundle" game plus a cheap DLC, but man did it feel good :P

10 years ago
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The problem is they joined too late. During the invite only days you could win a lot due to the small userbase (I won a lot during the invite only days and during a period after they opened the registration up). Nowadays it feels like a real lottery and you barely win. Stop complaining and enter more giveaways.

10 years ago
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Dude my math F-

10 years ago
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For instance*
Sorry it was bothering me. D:

10 years ago
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damn, and here i thought it was something about instant wins....

yeah, that was bad, i feel horrible already..

10 years ago
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Giveaways Entered :334
Gifts Won :0
Estimated Wins: 1.77
Mine is this and today I won :) Was a group giveaway, but still 99 entries. Lucky me. Waiting for person to give the giveaway.

10 years ago
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Don't do math, do meth

10 years ago
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10 years ago
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Maths is hard.

10 years ago
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@ OP.

I understand lim(n->∞)(1+1/n)^n = e and I understood how you derived the lim (x->inf)(1-1/x)^x equals the reciprocal of e. However I do not see how this relates to the probability you have explained. Care to assist me on understanding? Thanks and merry christmas.

10 years ago
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The people who don't understand what estimated wins means won't understand your math either, unfortunately.

10 years ago
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Closed 10 years ago by brycet.