Stop complaining about complaining outside of complaint threads. There will still be threads upon threads of this bullshit and you're just making another worthless thread. The math behind it all is simple enough that anyone who fails to understand it is stupid enough to bitch and be a leech while they're at it. Good morning.
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Seriously, you wanted to be that guy?
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tbh you don't need to be a genius to calculate mathematically your chances of winning, I mean, this isn't some kind of rocket science! If you learn maths/statistics/probability at the higher levels (like college maths ++?) won't you know about this?
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It's not that hard, really. It's just the probability of being selected two hundred fifty independent tests out of seventy participants in each. My very rusty theory of probability skills (which I don't really have) tell me that it'll be 1/7817031300.
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won't doesn't mean can't. it's not mathematician's job to calculate and she/he asks about the chance of winning 5 out of such giveaways.
So there is 250 statistically independent (assuming this so-called "random" in winner selection doesn't include estimated wins) tests with possibility of winning: 1/70 (check the above parenthesis). Possibility for winning 5 of them will be given by
(Binomial[250, 5])times ((1/70)^5)times(((1-(1/70))^(250-5))
I will not calculate this because of the aforementioned reason
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Usually this much math leads to a giveaway! Not this time I guess! Sadly people are gonna keep complaining inspite of your mathematical explanation. Probably because it's an "emmenic topic" as you said!
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Thank you for this enlightening post, but the question is, will those who complained/are complaining/are planning to complain read this?
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i dont know bout the math didnt even bothered my self with that part... but i reached over 1.1k entries and no wins and no one heard me complaining... heck why should i?? its gambling sometimes u win some times u dont u just need to wait for it xD any way good luck all to your ga's entered
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Here's an anti-complaint for you: I recently won 2 giveaways with +600 entries each within 24h, check my profile ;)
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Well it was just a "bundle" game plus a cheap DLC, but man did it feel good :P
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The problem is they joined too late. During the invite only days you could win a lot due to the small userbase (I won a lot during the invite only days and during a period after they opened the registration up). Nowadays it feels like a real lottery and you barely win. Stop complaining and enter more giveaways.
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Giveaways Entered :334
Gifts Won :0
Estimated Wins: 1.77
Mine is this and today I won :) Was a group giveaway, but still 99 entries. Lucky me. Waiting for person to give the giveaway.
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@ OP.
I understand lim(n->∞)(1+1/n)^n = e and I understood how you derived the lim (x->inf)(1-1/x)^x equals the reciprocal of e. However I do not see how this relates to the probability you have explained. Care to assist me on understanding? Thanks and merry christmas.
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The people who don't understand what estimated wins means won't understand your math either, unfortunately.
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I see people complaining about that all the time, posting topics like "1000 Entries & Reached 1 Estim. Win but No Gift Won?"
(They're called "emmenic topics" in Chinese because they've been posted in every period of time.)
Here I'm going to explain that in terms of math.
Explanation
We know that: lim(n->∞)(1+1/n)^n = e (a constant roughly equals 2.718)
Thus, lim(x->∞)(1-1/x)^x = 1/e = 0.368 (approx.)
As x>50, this approximation is applicable.
What does it mean?
For instants, if you keep entering giveaways which have 200 entries, the probability that you will reach 1 estimated win but you have not won anything is:
(1-1/200)^200 = 0.367
Which means you have a prob. of 36.7% (more than 1/3) reaching 1 estimated win with no gift won. Get it?
That is, more than 1/3 of us had no gift won by the time our estim. win reached 1.
Further, more than 1/9 .............................................ditto............................................. = 2.
And so on.
Hence, its more probable for you to reach 5 est. win with no game won (chance 1/148) than to win a g.a. with 150 enties.
Correction is welcomed if I wrote anything wrong.
And thanks for reading. MERRY CHRISTMAS!
P.S. Who said I was complaining? I was just doing math.
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