I'm pretty sure it calculates how many gifts you could/should have won, based on how many giveaways you've entered, chances to win from those giveaways, etc.
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Exactly this. Basically, it's just to see if you're relatively lucky or unlucky at the moment.
I've won 2, but one was the 25,000 Galactic Arms Race keys one (and I got one later in a Groupees bundle anyway), and the other was Krater 2 days after I joined the site. After that, I was thinking this site was a goldmine. :)
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Yeah, it's just a statistical estimation, what you would've have won, if the world was totally fair. If your estimated wins are lower than your actual wins you're quite lucky, if they're higher then it sucks to be you ;)
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I think the title says everything..
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