How long was your longest interval between wins?
Longest I went once was just a hair over 2 months. A little frustrating back then, But today I don't expect much anymore so I don't get upset over it.
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I am on "6 fewer games than expected" but like math says:Eveything needs only more data to be perfect in term of statistic(or something like that idk).You should get next year more games than usual or get them in a batch at some point in time.
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I think about 1 year a a half was the most. But that was a long time ago and maybe I had taken a break. I can't really remember ...
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Thanks! It should be 8 years, but I don't know why it shows 7.
Oh man .. 8 years ...
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I recently discovered that I hadn't won anything in over 5 months. I usually had 15+ wins a year.
One can wait for 2 years without wins if they don't enter anything ;) without knowing your entry numbers and win statistics these two things are two not connected points of information. Like if you would enter 1000 giveaways a year with an average entry number of 1000, it would be entirely reasonable for not winning a singe (!) game a year - it would make you just a teeny-tiny bit unlucky compared to your by-the-book chances.
Just chill, enter giveaways you'd love to win and expect nothing, then every win is a surprise, and a good game :)
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Coin tosses are actually awesome! If you write up the result of 100-200 tosses, you'll almost surely find 4-5-6 long series of being only heads or tails. The explanation is relatively simple - the chance of having X number of tails in a row is 0.5^N , or 1: 2^N.
The chance of having 6 tails in a row is 1:2^6 - 1:64 which means only one sextet out of 64 will be all tails. But from 1 to 100 you have 95 sextets ( 1-6 is the first, 2-7 is the second, so 95-100 is the 95th) so statistically speaking you should have a row of six similars ( basically 95 "tries" * 1/64 chance - it's more than 100%. Statistically) .
And then you have a pretty good chance for a 7-long one - 94 "tries" * 1/128 chance, 73%!
At least I think so, and I hope my math is okay at this late hour :P
TLDR: probability is fucky and it will often and repeatedly surprise us :D
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That's why I hope last months of year should be cool.
Bad news, statistics doesn't care about end of the year, it's just another month for it. For example Ijust keep on pushing my negative 4-6 wins on in front of me for I don't know how long, maybe years - never been in the absolute positive afaik, only had lucky months. With our thousands of entries and 1/(thousands) of chances to win I don't think we really will end up at zero before like a decade or so. Statistically ;P
Also while it's only anecdotical, I had more than one winnner in my past trains who won multiple games. It's possible that the RNG got changed a bit so it's less prone to give out wins in waves, but at the end of the day the frequency of entering and the average chance of winning a giveaway is what really matters.
And while I don't remember the longest win-break for me, it's very unlikely to be more than 3 months when I don't keep myself from entering. Generally I expect a win, sometimes two a month. (public ones are still pretty bloody rare)
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"" ( basically 95 "tries" * 1/64 chance - it's more than 100%. Statistically) ""
I like your sextet count. You really do not have 100 attempts, you have 95.
1/64 is the odds of getting 6 heads in a row. However, we do not care if we get 6 in a row of heads or tails.
So, 1/32 is the correct probability of getting a series of 6 in a row.
You have to count the odds of actually failing, then reverse it.
(31/32)^95 = 4.9%. This is the probability of failing 95 times
So, you have a 95.1% of success for 6 in a row (at least once) after 100 flips
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I dont know if its my longest but 8 months right now (tomorrow) [oh also here is year delay between my last two won games], whole 8 months of entering, NOTHING. Well am here almost 7 years and won just 26 games while here are users who won in 3 years XYX games.... am pretty much tired of this, and dont know why i even bother to "enter"
If i will enter once per week i understand but i check SG literally every day :D but not for GAs, its like "when am already here ill try click" but rlly do not expect something. Same users winning over and over and some never and never ( ͠° ͟ʖ ͡°)
So year, won game, year, won game, 8 months, nothing so far :D maybe it need 4 months more.
I dont need to win them but its just about principle. I was giving games away freqently years ago, when i imagined i win nothing back i stopped.
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Yep coz u have alot more entries but i dont, if i check ur winnings i know i wont enter on 99% of them. For me is on SG 6 activate giveaways 10 hours - 2+weeks remaining time to end. So thats a problem. But still i feel like 1 game per year is epic nothing :D
Lot of users keep telling me to join some groups, of course but quality groups are like you MUST give this and that and in this time range and price and so and so... well i wanna give when i want, not when someone tell me to do it. And i dont rlly feel "generosity" anymore coz am demotivated with this.
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Exactly 1 year, between Sept 28 2018 and Sept 28 2019, both being wins from community trains organized by FiddlerOnTheWeb.
Not surprising though, as I hardly ever enter GA's these days.
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Seven months since, probably the longest. Only enter for stuff on my wishlist though so it's nice when it happens.
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It's ok, I've won plenty, and I rarely enter giveaways nowadays.
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20 wins total. 4 years. max dellay 13 months.
Every win is like "wow, what hapend?"
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6 months since the last win, but the longest period is a little bit over a year. That said, I'm not entering many giveaways, needs to be a game I really wanna try and is given in abundance for me to activate and click that green "enter giveaway" button.
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8 months, between June 6, 2017 and February 17, 2018. I won something on July 29, 2017, but as it was never delivered I'm not sure if it counts. If so, then it would be 6 months and a half.
However, I don't consider this unluckiness, just inactivity - For a while I was mostly only active on the forum and barely ever entered giveaways (even if the option wasn't lacking). I still rarely enter giveaways, so I might eventually beat that record. :P
To give you an idea of how rarely I find myself joining a giveaway, here's a screenshot of my entered giveaways for the past 3 months.
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Last win February 2018 so more than a year and a half.
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I'm not complaining. I just became curious. I recently discovered that I hadn't won anything in over 5 months. I usually had 15+ wins a year. This time 4. Probably the last months of this year will be fun haha. I know about the "Unlucky7", but I didn’t think that this could happen to oldies, lol. Anyway, I'm happy to be part of SG.
Update 1: Thank you for your attention, votes and comments!
Update 2: Lol, I just won a game!
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