[quote="Mooszek"] +∞ [/quote]

250 is not "many" entries. The average number of entries was a 300 minimum before winning and that was before the site went public.

+1

The chances of winning a giveaway ever, though, increase if you enter often. Both of you are correct. It's illogical, I know.

My logic is flawless. Go away.

I'm calculating the odds of an x-long losing streak here. Of course losing a lot of them is less likely than a single loss.

If I enter my 300th giveaway and lose, the events "I lost that one giveaway" and "shit, I lost 300 giveaways in a row" have separate probabilities.

We aren't talking about the Gambler's Fallacy here. Simply about 'where in the statistical distribution' you fall. You're answering the wrong question. The question is

What is the probability of you not having one a single auction after 250 entries.

The idea being you take a whole bunch of people, have them enter 250 times, then how many of them would have not won anything. If you repeat this with 700 entries, about 50% of them would have one at least one auction during that time. You can look up Bayes Theorem on Wikipedia which outlines how this works. This also outlines a lot of other strange things like how a 99% accurate and specific test can somehow lead to a 50% false positive rate! (Note 'accuracy' means it catches positive results correctly, and 'specific' means it catches negative results correctly, these can actually be quite different depending on the test)

The answer to 'why haven't I won anything yet' is 'because it's statistically normal for you not to have won something'

"With each entry, the probability is reset."

I don't see how he implied otherwise. His point, I believe, is that statistically the odds of winning are so low that one should consider themselves "lucky" to win anything even after 700 entries, not that the odds start getting better at that point. Thus, this is hardly "fail logic" nor even a case of the gambler's fallacy, though I guess it superficially looks like the latter.

Like I said, lunboks isn't saying that you should expect your chances of winning to increase with each entry (e.g. "Clearly, this is the time when I'll win my 1000-entry giveaway!). He's saying that, if one were to enter that amount of giveaways, that is the chance of them losing. It's the difference between asking, "The coin was flipped five times and landed on heads, so what is the chance of the next flip being heads?" to "What are the chances that, when a coin is flipped six times, they are all heads?" You are correct, too, however.

I won a 1/1000 once, fucking pro.

im not greedy, just had put 15 in Luck

Indeed.

Hello my name is inAbag and I'm a gamer. Each day I enter giveaways but I am never able to win. With over 250 entries I still have nothing at all thanks to the 1% that does win. Break the bad luck, occupy this thread!

I am the 99%!

Complaining that you aren't winning something from a free-to-enter giveaway site? Cry me a river.