Here's the answer http://www.steamgifts.com/stats/
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However the stats are missing what the OP asked for. If I get it right, he wants a statistical average for the first win. The stats list your odds per entry, but not the median of entries/wins of all successful(!) steamgift users. It would be interesting for sure.
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Let's put it this way: if every giveaway you enter has 999 other people entering it, then after 700 entries there is a 49.6% chance that you wouldn't have won a single giveaway.
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You'll find we have this fair system, where people who joined a month ago and contributed nothing to the community who then complains on the forums about not winning, have a 0% chance of winning.
... Wait... No we don't. Guess things are much better than you thought.
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You're doing noticeably better than average; congrats on your luck!
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There are no amounts of entries that will "merit a win".
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No, I meant along the lines "I've entered xxx amount of giveaways, surely now I'm entitled to a win"
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Generally speaking, your chances now are no better than when you entered your first giveaway. Go and read Greg Egan: Into Darkness. It's sci-fi, it's good, and it also happens to explain this.
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Hi, just wondering on average, how many entries does a user make, before they win anything? I have entered quite a lot, and have yet to win a thing. how many entries do you think would merit a win? my guess is around 700.
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