I've been wondering based on statistics, eg: 1 in 4000 chance to win an AA giveaway versus a 1 in 400 chance to win a medicore game which you might not play anyway. Would it make more sense to "save your statistical chance" to enter titles you really want only? because I assume statistically if you do happen to win a game which you won't play the chance of you winning any further AA games that you really want will drop dramatically. ie: 1/400 x 1/4000 that sort of thing.

10 years ago*

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You have no grasp on how statistics work whatsoever.

10 years ago
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Plus l'un.

10 years ago
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Not entering a giveaway will not boost odds in another. Enter everything you want. Try to leave stuff you won't for someone else though.

10 years ago
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Who cares about stats? Just enter giveaways of games you want to play.

10 years ago
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+1

10 years ago
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That's not how it works. If you think you will play the game, then enter.

10 years ago
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Are you trying to say that your chances of winning drop as you win games?

10 years ago
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Deleted

This comment was deleted 4 years ago.

10 years ago
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Any perceived "save your statistical chance" is superstition.
Staying out of a GA only helps make sure you have points to spend on entering one you're more interested in, so you can get a chance. Once you entered, the odds to win are always 1 to <number of entries at time of end>.

10 years ago
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this post made my day
+1

10 years ago
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"because I assume statistically if you do happen to win a game which you won't play the chance of you winning any further AA games that you really want will drop dramatically."

can i have sum of wat ur smokin' bro? :D

10 years ago
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First I use SteamGifts+ to hide any giveaways for games that I would not try a demo of if a demo existed. Then I enter the rest because I've got more than enough points.

10 years ago
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just entering so much giveaway :D
makes my lib fat :p

10 years ago
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I only enter games I actually want. Haven't actually won anything yet but I see no point in wasting my points for something I don't want unless I have 300 points saved and there is literally nothing I actually want and to be honest, I would probably more likely just bid on stuff as far out as possible in an attempt to bank them for when something I did want came along.

If I only wanted to pad my steam library with crap, I would be spending my points from the Tremor website on those cheap crap games. But it is near impossible to get Bioshock 1 and 3 from anywhere I have tried so far.

10 years ago
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I just keep my account below 300p

10 years ago
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Algorithm for winner drawing is random and doesn't change depending on the amount of wins.

10 years ago
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I enter in both giveaways.
I got to know a lot of games here. Sometimes I see a game I've never heard but "catched my eye" so I go to Steam to check the game.

10 years ago
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10 years ago
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Saved me the trouble, thanks.

10 years ago
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Don't enter giveaways. You'll be crawling under tons of games if you do (win)!

10 years ago
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I only enter giveaways for games I actually want. It's not good to enter a giveaway for a game you're not going to play (it's not polite, I think).

10 years ago
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It's a bit of a mix bag. On one hand your chances are not too good either way. On the other, you will never win if you don't try at all. So I vote for games I am a) interested in and/or are on my wishlist b) are most likely to play, or c) sound interesting enough to warrant an attempt.

It's a gamble no matter what but in the ten months I've been here I've gotten about seven games from the 1600 or so attempts. So yes the odds for each attempt are slim but its still worth a shot. You've got nothing to lose.

10 years ago
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I only enter the forums.

10 years ago
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Even if you win thia 1/400 game it will not change your chances in this 1/4000 Ga in any way, shape or form. Each Ga is plain probability case not conditional probability one. So just enter whatever you feel like - no GA will affect your chances of winning other GA.

As for me I only enter GAs I'm at least semi-intrested in with a good chance to win. I will not enter public non-CV GA for game I want that has 6k entries, neither will I enter group GA with 4 entries if it's for game without cards, achievments, not intresting to me and from genre I generally dislike. But if game has cards or intrests me even a little (enough to make me play it at least 30 mins until deciding if I continue or drop it, maybe record a short first-impression video of it) I will enter these good-win-chance GAs even for games that are not in top of my wishlist ;p

10 years ago
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