How will humans' time on Earth end?
Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
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It's either pollution causing global warming which will kill most of the phytoplankton in the sea (organism that produce ~50%-85% of the oxygen on earth's atmosphere), and many other species on earth, badly affected the food web >> imbalance the nature >> extinction of human
OR there will be a World War 3 which have a high chance of Nuclear War
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We can be almost 100% certain that humanity will self-destruct either through nuclear catastrophe or some other technology, and there is pretty solid statistical proof for it. I can't be bothered giving the full explanation/argument, but it goes something like this:
This conclusion seems kind of obvious anyway. Since we're basically greedy, violent, war-hungry monkeys and yet instead of just having coconuts and sticks, we're playing around with nuclear bombs and worse. Technology is evolving at a rapid pace, but the human brain is remaining in caveman mode. So it's not surprising that advanced civilisations eventually self-destruct. There are interesting studies into places like Easter Island or other south American Civilisations which can be viewed as microcosms of earth, similarly these civilisations eventually self-destructed and collapsed. In fact all civilisations seem to collapse at a certain point once a certain population is reached. Right now we are approaching a point where we will have a greater population of humans than our planet can support, while at the same time jobs are going to dramatically decrease as automation takes hold. Look at superbugs and climate change too. It's almost fated that things are coming to an end, there are about 100 things that are leading towards our destruction and zero things which provide hope for possible continued existence.
TL;DR: Here's an animated diagram which symbolically represents the future of our civilisation:
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Not sure how much we can trust those numbers though, I think until we find proof of other civilizations, a lot of these will be simply assumptions, albeit with a high degree of probability.
I don't doubt advanced civilizations either used to or still do exist somewhere in outer space, it's just that I am not sure we have the capability to detect them if they are not as close to us as we think. Your line of thought takes several quite sizable leaps that can easily go another way, even though in general I do agree that some sort of technological or conflict-induced calamity is a very probable end point for any sufficiently advanced civilization.
Also, reading this got me thinking of Theodore Kaczynski and his manifesto.
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Remember that the very existence of life on this planet (as in, the appearance of the original replicator(s) from which all other life spawned) was, as far as we know, a cosmic coincidence of massive proportions. We can't conclude that "we can't possibly be the only ones" because we have no data (yet) on the likelihood of the formation of life in general and intelligent life in particular. The Drake equation is a framework for guesses and no more than that. The conclusion that advanced civilizations must have existed elsewhere and they must have destroyed themselves is premature.
It's almost fated that things are coming to an end, there are about 100 things that are leading towards our destruction and zero things which provide hope for possible continued existence.
I'd say there are about 7.5 billion things that provide hope, give or take a few. Of course, eventually entropy will get everything -- but until such time there may be lots of dancing yet.
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Had to laugh at Paved over to build a new bypass but from the ones you mentioned an Asteroid impact is probably the most likely, all but guaranteed in the next 4 billion years, before the Sun eventually engulfs us. The Chicxulub event that killed off the dinosaurs was ~66 million years ago and involved an object around 10 kms in diameter. Asteroids with a diameter of 1 kilometer make an impact once every 440,000 years on average. We can probably assume that Earth will be hit by dozens of objects 10km and larger in the next 4 billion years, even if the average frequency is something like 100-150 million years. Any one of these might do it.
After an asteroid impact, I would probably go for environmental degradation or a sudden disease outbreak as the next most likely candidates, and perhaps a combination of the two. As permafrost melts and methane is released into the atmosphere, so are diseases that have laid dormant for an incredibly long period of time. Also, as the recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa proved, surprise are always possible, and when coupled with a shortage of water or ongoing conflicts, for example, such an outbreak could easily spiral out of control.
Of course, that is assuming we do NOT destroy each other in the meantime, which is always a chance, and a very high one at that. Not sure how we can statistically measure it, outside stuff like the Doomsday Clock and such.
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It might be true that asteroids impact are very common in the cosmic scale, the difference between the dinosaurs and humans is that, humans possess the technology to prevent the impact in the first place (by deflecting the incoming rock or just blow it apart).
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We still do have Bruce Willis to go up there and save us.
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That scenario is currently impossible, and not considered feasible in all cases because of detection time. A gravity device would probably achieve better results than a rocket IMO, but either way, we are a long time away from having the capability of destroying an incoming asteroid, as it stands.
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lol...yeah, we might last a few extra years if we prevent stupid people from having babies. :D
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I voted for desease, it sounds possible for some sort of pandemic to get out of hand and wipe us all in a couple months/weeks. The other seem either avoidable, too distant for humans (as we understand a human-being today) to even make it there or not likely to kill 100% of humanity... just 99.9%, so it would leave more than enough people to repopulate.
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Heat death i'd say in other words entropy will do it's thing eventually.
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I love you for "Paved over for a new Hyperspace bypass"
gonna vote for any option involving humanity self distructing like the other's
guess this count as a bump and so long and thanks for all the fish
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Fear itself will get out of our bodies, become a powerful being and swallow the world in the most horrific way. It'll sound like metallic killing machines turned on at maximum power and feel like you're looking at a faceless person while having a 42°C fever.
I'm a little high.
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If the Yosemite supervolcano blows then mankind might survive but we'll be thrown back centuries. Better play some survival games to prepare...
Edit: I wanted to write Fallout at first and then changed it to survival games. And then I looked at the giveaway... lol
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Honestly, I'll be impressed if we manage to get past the next big destabilizing event without someone busting out the nukes in desperation. And that's not even considering some crazy asshole starting a game of Global Thermonuclear War just because they can. So I'm gonna go with that.
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So, one fine day, the world is going to see its last humans, and may even end itself too. How do you think it'll happen?
EDIT: We are talking about the end of humanity here, not the end of the Earth. It could be that we spead our nets wide and outlast the end of the planet. Or, we just kill our ourselves tomorrow. Editing to preserve the rigorous and highly scientific nature of this forum poll.
lXXyP
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