Watch the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50lSIaSR3zc

Here's a short summary I found on Neogaf:

HL3:
1. in development but by a small crew of ~10 people currently
2. project status is the script is complete
3. valve management not invested in releasing it anytime soon
4. was in development with larger team in 2009 but devs got moved to other projects which needed attention
5. mass effect 3 backlash influenced them. devs saw how passionate fans turned on the game and didnt want that to happen to the company's banner franchise
6. game culture has changed since 2004 ("sadly, most people are shitheads" - anonymous source at valve)

$$$:
7. cash flow from steam and F2P microtransactions is more than sustaining valve
8. staff moved to projects that bring in the money
9. Dota, CS Go, TF2 earned valve over $400 million in 2014.
10. Conservative estimate for total steam revenue in 2014 at $1.5 billion (1st and 3rd party)
11. Valve's 30% cut of $1.1 billion (3rd party only) combined with their top 3 F2P game earnings = $730 million in 2014.
12. no financial pressure to release HL3 (generous 12 million units full price retail for HL3 equals $720 million).*

Seems like it's in development hell, lets hope it won't turn out to be another Duke Nukem Forever.

9 years ago

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Will Half Life 3 happen?

View Results
Yes, very soon
Maybe in a few years or so
Never
PRAISE LORD GABEN!

It will be release between 3 years and never , but probably never .

9 years ago
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Or never.

9 years ago
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Half-Life 2 Episode 2 left at a cliffhanger, so I do not see why Half-Life 3 will not happen :)

9 years ago
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Not the first and not the last cliffhanger that won't be resolved due to $.

9 years ago
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I think Gabe will be the man to get the job done.

9 years ago
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He doesn't care about job, he cares about money. And like points 11 and 12 show, HL3 is not where money is.

9 years ago
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Ahem, Shenmue 2. Oh wait, It is happening after 16 years and with a help of Kickstarter. LOL.

9 years ago
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Valve has the money, SEGA still produced more games, Valve has yet to currently

9 years ago
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Hmm, that's still better than I expected, as I was sure there was nobody interested in making HL3 in Valve.

But then, points 11. and 12. are summarizing why they will never make HL3, or at least HL3 we want - from microtransactions that cost them nearly nothing (most of that stuff comes from 3rd-party developers - used to be called modders, but not sure if they still can be called that in current system) they have same amount of money they would have from one game that would cost them million of dollars.

9 years ago
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"Everyone use Origin" :D

9 years ago
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And stop playing multiplayer games.

9 years ago
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but hats..

9 years ago
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While all the points make total sense, I dont think its really true.. but I do believe that Valve is very carefull about the market and knows that HL3 beeing anyhting short of a new revolution at this point would hurt the company.. maybe they will reveal or even release it when they roll out the next Source engine.

That said, I really dont get why they haven´t made any atempts to implement a crowdfunding-system so far.. would be a perfect fit and could even work with the modding-community (Funding while in developement and an optional tip-jar for finished mods instead of the recent paid-mod-fail..).

9 years ago
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I think HL3 will be a revolutionary VR game but it will be released only if and when VR matures and has widespread adoption.

9 years ago
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nah

9 years ago
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It doesn't matter. HL2 was a mediocre game at best, yet the Valve hype kept it alive for over a decade now.

9 years ago
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you're one of those kids who discovered internet like yesterday right? first time troll too, God you're really far behind

9 years ago
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Nope, I played it when it came out. The only novelty in it was the gravity gun, which, like Havok physics ever since, was more broken than fun. The AI was terrible, the one in HL1 was better. The story was just a watered-down dystopia you could find in any sci-fi book from the 60s. The supposed "mystery" with G-Man was just trying to rip off X-Files without even knowing what plot they want to tell. Heck, their plot was so stupid that first they tried to redeem it with the Episodes, then they even abandoned that ship before it sank entirely.

The whole game was riding on three things: the first use of a physics engine in an AAA FPS, being the sequel to a decent shooter that started the trend of "intelligent" FPSs (which died around when CoD 2 came out), and that Alyx had a really strong "girl next door"/geek girl/everyday beauty sex appeal.

9 years ago
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This comment was deleted 10 months ago.

9 years ago
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"hurr durr i don't like your opinion you're an idiot"
are you ok m8

9 years ago
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there's a difference between opinion, and down right ignorance, no matter what you say, HL2 was a major success

9 years ago
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Sure, it was a success, but when someone doesn't like it, doesn't mean he's ignorant. I've also played it, and I really don't understand all that hype around it. In my opinion, it was a mediocre shooter, which a great story, and a fun fun gravity gun

9 years ago
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Being a success doesn't mean something good. Look at Goat Sim. That game is meant to be broken and terrible, yet it is a huge success.

Or heck, look at the Twilight movies. Nobody in their right mind would say they are good (terrible acting, terrible dialogues, horrendous special effects, bad cinematography, lazy directing, and of course horrible source material), but they are immensely successful.
Many times the name itself can sell the product. Hell, the 90s US comic scene was making billions on this notion alone wih no sustenance and selling comics only by covers. Or this is how Jurassic Park 3 made a ton of money, despite being a quite bad B-grade movie.

9 years ago
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goat sim had a name before coming out?

9 years ago
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Actually, it did. It was a project that sprang from a joke YT video that was the parody of… something. Can't recall the exact details.

9 years ago
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shit indie games are the reason I stopped even viewing the steam store, everywhere you look, very low grade games popularized by the purchases of little kids

9 years ago
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Heh, there is even a thread now about most overrated indie games. :) This particular one, Goat Simulator, is mentioned a few times.

Sadly the adverse effect of Sturgeon's Law for Valve letting indie devs try to promote their work on Steam instead of more obscure channels or really, really shady low-life jackal publishers like Xing/Crystal Interactive and the like.

9 years ago
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kekekek

9 years ago
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i agree the twilight movies are horrible.

but i love the books to death, ive read all 4 books 18 times each. im actrually on my 19th read through right now.

freaking best series ever other then harry potter

9 years ago
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The expectations are too high for that they dare to announce/release it.

At this point I'd rather want to see a Portal 3, which I think is more likely.

9 years ago*
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Portal 3 is even less likely than HL3 - there's no money in it.

9 years ago
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No money in Portal? That two game series that has sold 10 million confirmed units? (the actual figure will be way more but because of the cagey steam sale information we will never know exact figure).

Yeah, totally no money in continuing that dead series.

9 years ago
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Let's assume all those copies were sold as $50 games (which is a lie, as Portal 1 wasn't a $50, but for easy math let's assume that).

That's $500 million dollars earned in around 8 years - with quite large part of it that need to be split between shops, dvd-makers, transportation/logistics and, last but not least, MS and Sony (games were on consoles).

Compare that to those F2P games, where costs of making them now is minimal - for example CSGO team has 4 people working on it on daily basis, as players provide 90% of additional content - and they allegedly earned $730 millions from those games.

That's why I'm saying there's no money in Portal.

9 years ago
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Yeah that is true, but like the guys in the video, you're kind of saying "because X makes $700 million and Y makes $500 million, Y clearly isn't worth pursuing". $500 million isn't to be scoffed at, especially when it takes, what, $10 million to make each game? (that's probably being generous, they own the engine so that is a massive cost they don't have to pay for, like Unreal which is $1 million alone). That is a huge profit margin.

A good business doesn't turn away from good money making decisions like that just because something else makes a few $million more. Especially when this company is well established and has the staff to do both. Like you say, a tiny amount of their staff works on the F2P stuff. I imagine maintenance of Steam is also a pretty small team, in relation to the profits they receive from it.

I think it's very likely that work is being done on the likes of Portal 3 and Left 4 Dead 3 right now. Half-Life 3, I can understand why they would take their time, there's more pressure there. But to say it's never is coming out is pretty silly I think. They have confirmed a Source 2 engine, so why would they do that if no games were in the works? (sure, they can sell the engine to others, but it's not the engine of choice like Unreal is, therefore it probably wouldn't make that much money by just selling it to other developers). HL has always been the flagship series to unveil the new engine, so odds say it would be the game to unveil Source 2. The rumour mill is working overdrive for HL3, I don't tend to wholeheartedly believe what supposed "anonymous inside sources" say about what's going on at Valve.

9 years ago
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"500 million isn't to be scoffed at" - that is true. But you have to remember, while you pursue $500 millions, you are not pursuing something else, something that can bring 1000 millions.
L4D3 looks like something they might be doing because they can make tons of microtransactions for it, due to multiplayer roots of game.
But they tried adding microtransactions to Portal2 and utterly failed, as that game was single player one.

Also, Dota 2 is either already using Source 2 or in final beta stages. So nope, HL3 is not the game to unveil Source 2.

9 years ago
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No portal 3, noo a sequel will just ruin the whole plot :3
A spin off? Sure :3

9 years ago
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You mean like this?

Portal Stories: Mel

:)

9 years ago
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Yep! I did download it but I've still to play it, looks awesome :D

9 years ago
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That's looking amazing, thanks for pointing that out!

9 years ago
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10 people, work at 1 game...
10 - 1 = 9
Half-Life is the third: 9/3 = 3

3

Half-Life 3 confirmed!

Seriously, when games takes that much to be developed (if it's being developed) it's either a super masterpiece (0,5%) or a delusion (99,5%)

9 years ago
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but duke nukem forever...

9 years ago
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...and Daikatana! :P

9 years ago
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Which is the super masterpiece? Shenmue?

9 years ago
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I don't know one but I like to thing that it could have happened :P

9 years ago
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I didn't have a DreamCast back then, but from almost all sources I hear Shenmue was a masterpiece, and it was in development for like seven years. It was GTAV+all popular good open world games that are popular today made in 1999 with 2004 visual quality.

9 years ago
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Didn't knew that, nice to hear that sometimes some nice games are created instead of empty hype containers :)

9 years ago
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View attached image.
9 years ago
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"staff moved to projects that bring in the money"

so literally they don't give a fuck about HL3 becoz they have enuf money not to do anything , just make more HATS

9 years ago
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And knife skins. Those are also super important for better game experience.

And some people wondered why was Zynga for a brief time valued more than EA itself…

9 years ago
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Half life 3? im still waiting for half life 2 episode 3!?!

9 years ago
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ikr

9 years ago
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it's gonna be released with steamVR imo and steambox this year, not that I care IMO, id still take Fallout 4 any day, just move on, like many others did

9 years ago
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Valve will make Half-Life 3 only if they need money. Which is probably not gonna happen soon. Steam, hats, skins, etc. they're making so much money on this...

9 years ago
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"Valve. We used to make games, now we make money."

9 years ago
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I've been saying this for years. Half life 3 is a liability because it could drive people away from steam if it doesn't live up to the extreme hype. My bet is that it will come out when they need an exclusive game to pull people away from origin, uplay, or gog galaxy if any of those ever become popular.

9 years ago
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9 years ago
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"5. mass effect 3 backlash influenced them. devs saw how passionate fans turned on the game and didnt want that to happen to the company's banner franchise"

That's quite the lame excuse. It's not like Mass Effect 3 is the first game in a game series to do badly, and although I think a lot of the gamers opinions on ME3 are overreactions, I don't think it was entirely unjustified. It may be the most recent case where something has had such backlast but still, that pressure has always existed for HL3 to begin with, I don't see why they needed the failure of ME3 to think that could happen to their own franchise, Valve is smarter than that.

At any rate, we know Valve just makes social multiplayer games now, when they make games at all

View attached image.
9 years ago*
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I think that Valve is currently working on the Source 2 Engine and will probably develope HL:3 after that (or not...who knows..)

9 years ago
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It was in development, until Gabe was whisked away to an alien world while he was on his daily jog. The imposter is doing his job well.

9 years ago
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Even if they had to invest 100 millions in the game they would make a big profit. So Valve is making enough profit and they don't want more ? Or maybe they are afraid to release a game not as legendary as gamers could expect, so because they are afraid to lose gamers respect they'll never release anymore game ? What a dumb move, they are tetanized by their own success.

9 years ago*
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Half-life 3 will probably never happen. If it will EVER be released it will be quite a large disappointment (it will be a great selling game though), people have built so much hype around it that it will never be able to live up to it :)

(I'm one of those who finds hf2 slightly overrated and the driving sections where a pain in the butt, but that's another topic).

9 years ago
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  1. game culture has changed since 2004 ("sadly, most people are shitheads" - anonymous source at valve)

Truer words have never been spoken.

9 years ago
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Most people are shitheads since the dawn of time, nothing new about that. And yes, game culture changed as publishers decided to bait into gaming people who never were playing games before and thus, casuals were born.

9 years ago
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The dream is dead, it was a good run.

9 years ago
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i assume they are waiting for consoles to catch up with pc so they can use next gen tech to develop and release an incredible game...

thing is, consoles haven always been 1 step behind pc gaming.

9 years ago
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