Given all the questions about chances of winning I thought I would run a quick poll to see how many people have a real grasp on basic probability :)

10 years ago

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If I roll two dice at the same time there is a 1 in 36 chance to roll 2 sixes. If I roll just one of the dice and it comes up 6 what is the chance that when I roll the next dice it comes up six?

View Results
1 in 36
1 in 6

Independent events :C

10 years ago
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Ah, those dependent and independent variables...

10 years ago
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at least it appears most people appear to understand it :)

10 years ago
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10 years ago
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I know the answer, i play with lambda calculus, set and game theory for fun lol, But given all the questions saying I have entered x and not won yet I wondered how many people actually do as it implies they have no idea about basic probability.

And looking at the results so far 8% have no idea

10 years ago
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10 years ago
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i ate both dices :3

10 years ago
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*dice

10 years ago
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diceseses

10 years ago
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diocesoises

10 years ago
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dicosaurses

10 years ago
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The problem is that even the people who understand probability when abstracted like this fail to grasp it when it is presented in a natural context and/or there are many implicit assumptions.

For instance. How many times do you have to roll a dice to guarantee that you get at least one 6? Analogous to the question of how many GAs does it take to get your first win, assuming only 6 people enter.

Trick question: You can never guarantee it, at least not in an absolute sense of 100% guaranteed. Precisely because each GA/dice roll is independent.

10 years ago
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Yep even with coin toss you could flip heads 100000 times in a row.

I should have posted the Monty Hall problem, that normally flips people out :)

10 years ago
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i play dnd and i know my dice

10 years ago
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can't answer your poll, need more info: Did you say 'thanks' before or after you rolled the dice? :P

10 years ago
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I didn't say at either point but I did say thanks for skyrim after lol

10 years ago
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Not enough information. It all depends on the dice: the number of sides on each dice and how they're numbered. For example if the first die has 36 sides numbered 1-36 and the second is a cube with 6s on all sides the odds of rolling a second 6 is 100% in the inverse case it would ~2.77%

10 years ago
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This site needs more dice with only sixes!

10 years ago
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