What odds are you talking about? The ones displayed in "My Stats"?
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What's wrong with that stat?
EDIT: you probably shouldn't post an image that shows that you use an auto-joiner plugin. You can get banned for that.
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LOL. I never use plugins and extensions (not even the steamgifts one they all talk about, I don't remember its name =P) since I just want to enter the giveaways I like and often I don't have that much time to navigate except for wishlisted games and group/WL giveaways.. but this is really funny.. "autojoin settings" haha
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Shouldn't it be 1/6007 + 1/6006 + ... + 1/5907, as the number of entries decrease by one after each winner is selected?
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Nope.
Chance of positive result = Number of positive results / Number of all results (participants)I don't know where're need method
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But the way you do it the winner of the first copy is still able to win another copy (from a pure statistical point of view, not on SG).
Edit: Your way of calculating is "n draws with replacement" but (I think) it should be "n draws without replacement".
Edit again: Ok, found my mistake.
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I'm stacked while check this by coding cause I forgot how to code 😅
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No, all winners are drawn at the same time, so you have, at the moment, a rough chance of 1/60 or 1,6%.
For example if there are 4 copies given away and 5 entries you have a 4/5 chance of winning or 80%.
You don't have a chance of 1/5 + 1/4 + 1/3 +1/2 = 231/180 chance of winning or 128% .
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Thanks. Your counterexample helped me, to see where my thinking gone wrong.
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I think you were on the right track, but it's the other way around: you have to calculate the probability of not winning.
In FallenKal's example you have a giveaway with 5 entries and 4 copies. The giveaway ends and the system starts extracting winners one at a time. On first extraction you have 4/5 chance of not being extracted. First winner is removed from the list, then in the second extraction you have 3/4 chance of not winning. Third extraction 2/3, last extraction 1/2.
4/5 x 3/4 x 2/3 x 1/2 = 20% chance of not winning. Therefore you have 80% chance of winning, as stated by FallenKal.
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which is a much more complex way of reaching the same number
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Sure, but it's a way to demonstrate that extracting all winners at the same time or one by one is the same thing.
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some people have trouble grasping such matters.
I remember getting into an argument with a professor when I was studying for my master's, because of something very similar. not to sound arrogant, but, I was right, he was wrong
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Probably an add on not working properly and giving false numbers.
Edit: For me the correct chances are shown (around 1.6%). So I am back to above guess of a faulty add on.
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There's not even something like that in default steamgifts. So faulty plugin messing up another plugin?
So unexpected of an auto-joiner...
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by the way, apart from autojoin settings jokes, I never saw such a stat! I was thinking about the "my stats" page/graphs too.. I'm too lazy to use browser extensions and I don't know where these numbers come from, it's the first time I see them and it's actually quite nice to see the chances =P ok, nothing changes on your victory chances overall since it's all random so it'd be just a curiosity =P
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It looks like you are using ESGST with the "Use advanced formula" method of calculating chance. This is an estimate of the chance you will have at the point the GA ends, not what the chance is of winning at the current time. From the ESGST settings:
Uses an advanced formula (number_of_copies / (number_of_entries / time_open_in_milliseconds duration_in_milliseconds) 100) to calculate the chance based on how much time the giveaway has been open and the duration of the giveaway. This gives you an estimate of what the chance will be when the giveaway ends.
ESGST shows me the same value (0.94%) for that GA.
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Maybe it uses same formula but I think it is not ESGST. ESGST has its button in navbar and uses different icon next to the chance number.
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does esgst allow auto-join? or one can use multiple tools? it's so weird this extension world to me =P
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ESGST is a legit plugin/script, no auto-joining possible.
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thanks, that "auto-join" button I saw in OP's steamgifts pages (in his answer to the 1st reply) was a little bit suspicious.. I've never used ESGST but I know it's widely used by most of the active members here so I was wondering that he was running some other kind of plugin or extension or whatever that allowed auto join too..
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Yes, OP uses an auto-joiner. And OP will get permanently suspended for it. Still has nothing to do with ESGST, tho :)
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One can use multiple scripts, of course. And yes, sometimes scripts could conflict with each other, in this case you have to choose.
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thanks a lot for your answers, this one and AmanoTC's ones above.. I feel like a total newbie in this field having never used scripts and now I think I know more about everything =) ESGST looks really useful! and I'm happy to learn that the auto-join OP's script is something not related, since I know that tons of people use ESGST =P
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I couldn't even use SG without Scripts :D
I have seven installed for a satisfying UX (User Experience).
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Did you really post a screenshot showing that you use an auto-join script?
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nice joke xD can you show us auto-join settings as well?
I wonder how it works...
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Auto-join settings
Yikes... Congrats on disrespecting the site, the owner, the members and the overall idea of these giveaways. A solid middle finger to all of them :/
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You have to look on the bright side -- at least they posted a nice Thank you message each time they won a giveaway!
Oh... wait.
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and it give ...
a 1 day suspension.....
pffffffffffff
each one will laugh about such a "punishment"
People that advertise, if they know the rules or not, get at least a 2 days suspension.
Something is very wrong at that system...
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True, only 1 day suspension is sad. Hope he will remove those plugins.
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A 1 day suspension is only a slap on the wrist but the new blacklists will hurt more
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I don't BL lvl 1 users because of the 1k space limit of the BL. I would need 3k to BL lvl 1 and lvl 0 people too.
At the moment i lift lvl 2 BL and replace it with lvl 3 BL whenever i need a few spaces.
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The amount of days someone gets suspended for seems to be completely fucking random. The admins/mods seriously need to organize better. One user will get suspended for several days for commenting on an old thread, another user won't, someone will get banned for a week for just mentioning trading (another won't), yet another person will use autojoin bot and will get suspended for one (1) day...
Nice job, mods. Maybe talk to each other every once in a while? Maybe sit down and write some basic rules for the amounts of days that you can then follow? Or does that make way too much sense?
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You don't get it... their auto-joiner shows the wrong odds!
The site, owner, members and idea should bend backwards to fix the issue of their cheat. What if they win LESS? Could you sleep at night?
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Is this real or a joke. It can't be real, it must be a joke. I mean complaining here about a plugin that is banned, because it shows the wrong value. No way this is real :DDDD
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maybe cg should rework his autojoin detection systemâ„¢.
you know it's a joke if autojoiners only get caught when they post proof against themselves. 🤷
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For once, I actually agree with Mully. You know it's really serious when I agree with Mully.
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It just shows some random number
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