This has been brought up many times, and the official admin position is that one entry should give you an equal chance to everyone else in the giveaway. That's the only really fair way to do things. Some people are just lucky, or they only enter giveaways with a low number of entries. If I win Fortix, should that really lower my chances of winning the next Skyrim giveaway just because I've won something?
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This. Besides, I can imagine that running an algorithm that calculates chances for every user based on their previous entry history creates a whole lot of traffic that would slow down the entire site to a halt.
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But that makes it unfair. What if someone just joined, and the odds would have fallen that they win this game, but if not, they go 2000-0? Just saying, it would penalize people who haven't lost yet. Plus, 300 isn't that many, people are in the 500's and possibly even higher. If you want to win, enter sweepstakes with fewer entries and your odds will jump up.
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-_- you just tried to use COD in an ethics debate.
"What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul. "
Billy Madison: Okay, a simple "wrong" would've done just fine.
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There is a distinct flaw in this logic: You claim that this system would only raise the chances of a person winning, but never lower. If there is a giveaway that has 100 entries in it then everyone has a 1% chance of winning. If 1 of those people has a "lose streak" that makes them have twice the chance of winning, they now have a 2% chance to win. We now reach 2 different situations:
1) If the system NEVER decreases a person's chance of winning then there is now a 101% chance that someone will win the giveaway. (illogical)
2) The one person has a 2% chance of winning, so in order to make a total of 100%, everyone else must now have less than a 1% chance to win. (unfair)
People will always try to tip things in their favor, but so many people seem to focus on themselves only. They all completely ignore the fact that any proposed method will have 2 key possible outcomes.
Outcome 1) The system increases everyone's chance of winning and therefore it is a pointless endeavor.
Outcome 2) The system increases just a few people's chances of winning, and therefore MUST decrease the chances of others, thus creating a site that is no long based on the pure neutrality that is randomness.
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but the real question is will him winning, increase or decrease his chance of whining about fairness?
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I believe there is a way to balance this. If you have over 300 entries and 0 wins you create a giveaway and increase the chances.
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Except he did win. Shortly after making this thread, oddly enough, he won Spacechem.
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i actually like the simple probability better than trying to tweak it so everybody's likely to end up with the same wins to entries ratio as soon as possible. your suggestion would punish people for having past good fortune, which sounds unfair to me. the rules of probability are already pretty fair and balance out eventually.
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Whine about winning
Win game
Any other time of the year I'd say wish that was me but I've gone up like 10 games this week thanks to bundles and Halloween gift giving friends so I am pretty set haha
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Just a suggestion:
I've entered 338 game giveaways as of 10/30/2011. I have not won a single one. Maybe people that reach a certain threshold of entries should receive a minor win rate boost as a balancing effect? I believe its a little unfair that a person with ~30 entries has 2+ wins while someone with 500+ had 0.
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