On a more serious note this thread should answer most of your questions ;)
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really sundace85 , hope you like the spam report for spamming my question with a video link to youtube, pos troll
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I dare you to send one and see what happens :)
This questions gets asked on a daily basis so you can't be surprised that people get annoyed by people not bothering to use the search function.
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o and i dared, annoyed or not , if its my 1st time asking this, considering i looked all over for why and couldnt understand , and thought i would put up a thread seeing if peeps could help me understand. there is no need to be a pos troll and link pos video links to youtube.
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Go have a waffle with maple sirup your blood sugar appears to be low :)
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Lol :D
Good joke tbh :D
And what for that raging kid...Let him send his useless "report"
lvl 0 raging kid vs normal and emotional healthy person lvl 9
What a battle it would be :D
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oh jeez, lol.
posting reverent responses ain't a requirement ya know, kid. Responses that aren't don't automatically become spam.
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oh jeez what, he trolled me and i dont have the patience for stupid trolls linking youtube videos.
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His comment was dismissive, but doesn't seem intentionally offensive or inflammatory.
If you don't have the patience to deal with and irreverent comment then you are in for a treat with the internet. Sundance85 lost patience with answering this question for the millionth time, but it shouldn't have caused this kinda response.
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you entered less than 600 giveaways and they are all lv0, your chances are extremely low...
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ya but how i go from 92% of winning and over night BAM goes to 8% chance. ? and wtf does placeholder4 mean from sundance ?.
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More people entered after you did and the chance drops.
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If you see the giveaway right when it is created and are the only entry, your stats will show that you have a 100% chance of winning on the day that giveaway ends. If one other person enters, you will now have a 50% chance. Once a couple thousand enter, your chance of winning goes way down. Your chance of winning will constantly fluctuate based on how many people are entering the giveaways that you have entered.
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A giveaway you entered had only few entries. That's why your chances were so high. Though you logged in on the 4th, it might have already been after the GA had ended or there were many additional entries in the meantime. Usually GAs and especially public ones get many entries shortly before they end.
Sundance's link is referring to the repetition of this and similar questions.
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Your chance of winning fluctuates in real time with how many people enter the giveaways. You checked your stats after entering a giveaway with not many people and then more people entered that giveaway which brought your chances of winning down.
You have only entered 573 giveaways, that is not many compared to how many people are probably entering in the giveaways you are trying to win.
It's all based on Probability and Odds.
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When a ga nears it's end date and gets closer to the front page, more people enter it, meaning you get less chance :shrug:
This site is just a bunch of lotteries, but their free. so you gotta decided if the time sorting through ga's is worth the chance of winning them.
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dam i have a better chance winning on a scratch ticket lmao
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good luck with that. I just bought 4 and lost 'em all, just adding to all the ones i've ever purchased that I've literally never one once in my life. meanwhile i've won 221 games here.
You can enter hundred of giveaways a day while buying lots of tickets is cost restrictive so it even out.
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You can increase your odds by giving away games, increasing your contribution value (CV) level, and joining higher-level giveaways.
Or join groups and enter group-only giveaways. Or make friends on the forums and maybe get whitelisted (which lets you join their whitelist giveaways).
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Sounds like when you entered something, you were one of the first to enter it. Then overnight, more people joined effectively lowering you to almost 0% chance.
Keep in mind that even if you did have a steady 92% chance of winning, you still might win it not due to to other people that entered.
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I feel ya. I havent one in awhile either but I only enter for games I want so my chances of winning are much lower then if i just entered every giveaway. On the plus side this site helps me stay in the knowing of what games are freebies. I'd probably missed the HB, Ubisoft, Indiegala, etc stuff if I didnt come here daily. Plus I get an orphan key or make a decent trade every know and then. Just look for more ways you can benefit then just giveaways. Good luck.
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it feels bad losing those giant giveaways where you got 70-95% chance to win, those and com make me hate probability so much, lol.
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True. Thats why I just join the ones I knew I probably have a slim chance at. It goes wishlist, recommended, then scroll by page. BUt today I got Grim Fandango, AC Black Flag and as Im typing this a freebie from Indiegala popped up. For a site that costs jack to join it sure reaps many benis if you know how to work it... or if you just appreciate the small things like ive learned to do in my 38 years.
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Ok, here's my considered advice:
Contribute - it's the whole point of this site - share games you aren't going to play and win games you will play
As you contribute more, your level increases and you'll be able to join GA's with better odds
Join groups that do GA's (check other user's group lists and join the open public groups)
Read the forum for private GA's - puzzles, trains etc... The odds of winning these GA's is often better than public GA's
Be active and friendly - you will be able to join private groups once people know who you are - and if you're generous with contributions the likelihood of being able to join these groups increases.
Keep entering GAs....
Good luck and welcome to SG!
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Nobody explained the Stats right now:
It shows the chance for that day only. Let's say you enter an inviteonly GA that will end tomorrow as first person.
Than this graph will tell you, you have a 100% chance to win tomorrow. The more people will join, the lower your chance will be.
The Number you see on the chart is ignoring how long you are on the page and how much GAs you entred. It only calculates for that one day, how's your posibility to win.
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can someone explain how just on the 3rd of this month my stats said i had a 92% chance of winning a game pn the 4th, then i log in on the 4th and it drops to 8 %. like wtf , i been on this site for over a year and not won 1 single game no matter what i do, i feel like this website is a complete waste of time.
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