You didn't even participate in http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/ZKp4w ;D
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Not sure if this is lucky or not, but today I won Dead Space 3 from a competition. I never thought I would have won the competition, so I bought the game immediately after entering, only to find out I won a week later. Now I am trying to think what to do with my extra copy. I will probably give it to my mate. If he gets a decent PC, lol.
Oh, and my result was 1.625
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The ones who have won more games than their estimated wins are mostly members of sui juris private groups.
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Could be that, though there are many lucky people (the result of this calculation is over 1) who have won barely any giveaways from giveaway groups. Being able to enter giveaways with high contributor requirements also seems to boost your luckiness.
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Well, technically you're right. But joining giveaways with good odds boosts both your estimated wins AND possibly the amount you your wins too. And usually the amount of wins surpasses the estimated wins at some point, since one win always adds 1, but a chance to win let's say a giveaway with 10 entries adds just 0,1.
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That was exactly my point.
Also I am one of those lucky ones who has result over 1 with barely any wins from giveaway groups.
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That makes zero difference to your wins:estimated wins ratio.
The ONLY thing that affects this is luck. Anyone doubting this needs to think a bit harder about applied probability.
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It makes all the difference in the world. When you enter giveaways with only a dozen other individuals you're bound to win a lot of games. And each time you do wins counter goes up by one. While estimated counter goes up only by some decimals on each entry. The former just grows faster.
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Either I misunderstood your previous post, or you haven't the faintest grasp of elementary statistics.
Joining low entry giveaways simply increases your chances of winning games. It also boosts your estimated wins by the same amount.
...
...
If your average "luck" dictates that you win one thousand entry giveaway every 1,000 entries, you will win one four entry giveaway every four entries. Both will give you a 1:1 estimated/actual ratio, but the latter will net you 250 games per 1,000 entries instead of a single one.
The ratio has NOT increased, and despite 250 new games on your Steam account, your statistical luck continues to be no better than average, and no better than the guy who has a single win from his 1,000 entries in 1k entrant giveaways.
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That's not how it works. Statistics never tells you that you win one giveaway every thousand entries, it tells you that you have a chance of one thousandth to win every giveaway you enter. In real world you can win several giveaways in a row with that chance. Then you have to take into account that number of entries on one particular giveaway does not equal that of another one. Thus they won't add up to your perfect ratio.
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My post IS EXACTLY how statistics work.
My response was a "dumbed down" example, comparing low and high entry giveaway outcomes.
I'm not an imbecile, and neither am I stupid enough to claim that every single user will have a 1:1 ratio, and giveaways will be won exactly according to this ratio, which is the straw man you're trying to erect here. It's clearly disproven by simple observation, but that's got nothing to do with my last post. However, it's also true that across the entire population, the average ratio will always be 1:1. It cannot be anything else.
It is debatable whether there is any such thing as "luck" anyway, but stepping away from that debate, with all due respect, your claim that entries affect the actual:predicted ratio is an absolute fallacy, and the example I gave disproves it entirely.
The number of entries is absolutely, totally and utterly irrelevant when computing an expected the wins:actual wins ratio. That simply cannot be argued. It is basic statistics. Unless the odds are rigged, this is common sense, and blazingly obvious. For each 4/1000 person giveaway, there are 3/999 losers and one winner, and so the balance of the universe is maintained.
Over time, and on average, people WILL WIN the expected number of giveaways, and the average user ratio across the population WILL BE 1:1, regardless of which of the individuals win. This is a self-explanatory truth, and applies whether all giveaways on Steamgifts consist of 2 entries, 200,000 or a mixture of however many numbers you care to pick out of the air.
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0.24 :)
Edit: Oh, well i missunderstood this then ^^
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It doesn't break physics. It has nothing to do with physics. It's mathematics. Physics describes real world, while mathematics is just a made up thing that we use to explain stuff to ourselves.
Anyway, there are certain parts of mathematics (non-standard analysis for instance) in which you can divide by zero. Under standard rules division by zero gives you an infinity, which is not a number but still an answer. There is also Dirac delta function which equals 1/0 if X equals 0.
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Hi. No.
You can't divide by zero. Dividing by zero is UNDEFINED, it doesn't exist.
You can only find the LIMIT: as the number you are dividing by approaches zero, the result approaches infinity. That's still not dividing by zero, which again, does not exist.
Whoever taught you that dividing by zero equals infinity wasn't doing you any favors.
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When I divide anything by zero in a calculator I get an Err message. Err is something so it cannot be called nothing and exists, therefore dividing by zero exists.
/devils advocate.
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Go to your profile, divide Gifts Won by Estimated Wins and post the result here.
Mine is 0.4807
Edit: yeah, you may need SG Plus for this
Edit 2: I'm being told that I managed to fuck up this simple task, and you're supposed to divide won by estimated, so typically me =D
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