[UCI World Tour] Tour de France 2020

Tour de France 2020

Also running: Italian Grand Prix Part II

How it works

Predict who is going to win each stage of the Tour.

• Leave your prediction for each stage on the giveaway (they all include maps and profiles and link to the official site).
• Below is a table with all stages but you can just go the first one and use the "next stage" link there.
• We're not going to make it too easy so it's not allowed to just spam the same rider for all stages.

Stages

This table/chart is RaChart™ compatible and was created with Giveaways Table/Chart Creator

Preview

Postponed because of Covid-19; things are still iffy, obviously. Important new rules; any rider testing positively will be removed from the race immediately. If two of a team's personnel (riders or otherwise) test positive for the disease then the entire team is removed from the competition. This could obviously be huge; having the Yellow Jersey and then being sent home because a mechanic and a cook have Covid-19 will sting.

The teams are unhappy with this rule and have complained to the ASO. Edit: the UCI (and not the ASO) has changed the rule: now a team is only ejected if two riders test positive within 7 days of each other. Personnel testing positive is no longer relevant (though those people obviously still need to leave). Edit 2: The French government has put their foot down and the original rule is back in effect.

Today, the 27th of August, Covid cases are rising sharply in France, 21 departments are now at code red. The chances of the Tour being changed, shortened, or cancelled are unfortunately increasing. Journalists are even speculating that teams might want to fight harder the first week to gain the yellow jersey should the Tour be stopped before the three weeks are up.

Another tour designed for the climbers; 29 ascents of the top three categories in total (only five uphill finishes but more climbing kilometres than ever in recent history). There's not even a flat time trial this year, and no team time trial at all; we have to go way back in time for a Tour more suited to time trialists. All done for Romain Bardet again? Unfortunately for the French, he isn't going to win this year either.

This year the organisation has been looking for some new ascents so there will be some mountains included that the riders are less familiar with. One example is the Col de la Loze, the 'roof; of this year's Tour (2,304 metres); only last year was the trail there turned into a proper road, making it possible to go there. It also means we'll be spending more time in nice places like the Jura, Corrèze, and Vosges.

Back from 2018 is Plateau des Glières; part of the descent is a dirt road where Froome got a puncture last time.

Also see the PEZ Preview.

The Tour Touristique bits are mostly from the Tour site (recognizable by the appalling command of the English language) and Wikipedia.

Sites
Official Site (Also available in German now, I noticed. Their English is still as bad as ever.)
Wikipedia
A better list of riders than the official site, with thanks to bartwu

General Classification (abbreviated as GC)
This is the one it's all about, who will bring the maillot jaune (yellow jersey) to Paris?

Well, this Tour will be all about the Team Ineos vs Team Jumbo-Visma battle. I can't see the winner coming from any but one of these teams.

• Ineos is starting with last year's winner, Egan Bernal, but has left Geraint Thomas (second last year, winner in 2018) and Chris Froome (four time winner) from the team. They are bringing Richard Carapaz though, winner of the 2019 Giro d'Italia. It's going to be interesting to see how he will do. Add to that a number of strong helpers, including Pavel Sivakov who has been doing really well the last few weeks and could be a considered a dark horse. Bernal quit the Dauphine with back issues but I can't imagine they are that much of an issue or the team would have changed the lineup. It's his Tour to lose.
• Jumbo-Visma is bringing Primož Roglič and Tom Dumoulin. They were also going to bring Steven Kruijswijk (third last year) but unfortunately a crash in the Dauphine means he is out. They, too, are bringing a raft of good helpers for both the flat and mountain stages. Amund Grøndahl Jansen has been subbed in for Steven Kruijswijk meaning Wout van Aert will now be called upon more in the mountain stages. Roglič's wife has said that Primož is far from 100% after his crash in the Dauphine but the team was quick to deny this; it's hard what to make of this.
• Team Arkéa-Samsic managed to get Nairo Quintana who wasn't very happy at Movistar. Gotta wonder what Warren Barguil thought of this, as he was the undisputed leader till then, I can't see him do much work for Quintana. But Nairo has his brother Dayer and Winner Anacona for support. Third place seems possible.
• Groupama-FDJ's Thibaut Pinot had to leave the Tour in 5th place due to a muscle injury last year. He should be back stronger this year though he could do with some stronger helpers in his team. Another third place contender?
• UAE Team Emirates' Fabio Aru might be the GC rider on paper, everyone is waiting to see what Tadej Pogačar can do. After the Vuelta last year has star has risen metorically. Third place is definitely within his capabilities. If Jumbo-Visma have the money, they should sign him right now.
• Bora–Hansgrohe have been punching above their weight quite impressively ever since they started in 2010. Emanuel Buchmann came in fourth last year but he, too, had a nasty crash in the Dauphine so we'll have to see how he'll do. Amazingly Emanuel Buchmann is also starting; he broke his clavicle in Il Lombardia just two weeks ago!
• AG2R La Mondiale's Romain Bardet will be so happy there's only a short time trial, and one uphill at that. Still, after a 2nd and 3rd place, his results have been going downwards, not upwards the last few years. A 5th place this year seems about the best he can do.
• Trek-Segafredo's hopes are on Richie Porte and Bauke Mollema. Will the eternally unlucky Australian finally have a Tour de France without any accidents? I hope so, but even then the podium doesn't seem attainable. Will Bauke be there for a stage win or the GC?
• Astana's Miguel Angel Lopez doesn't seem to be able to live up to his promise.
• Movistar is hoping for Enric Mas to surprise everyone but the podium seems impossible at this stage.

King of the Mountain (often abbreviated as KoM)
The maillot a pois (polka dot jersey) goes to the best climber; who will it be this year? Obviously the GC riders will all feature in this classification but there are some others...

• Romain Bardet (who is moving to Team Sunweb next year) won this classification last year, and, depending on how his GC is going, he's likely to win it again.
• Team Bahrain-McLaren are bringing Mikel Landa and Wout Poels (both former Team Ineos mountain men). A few years ago Landa was the best climber at Ineos, better than Froome and Thomas, but wasn't allowed to go for all he was worth. Now he can do what he wants but a KoM victory seems a lot more likely than a GC one. And they also have Damiano Caruso who came in 4th in the KoM last year.
• EF Pro Cycling are bringing a few real mountain goats; can any of them produce consistently?
• Tim Wellens (3rd in the KoM standings last year) had a nasty crash on Monday and won't be starting, unfortunately.
• Edit: had a talk on the phone and realised I should probably give Julian Alaphilippe a mention here, he won it in 2018. I don't think the stages are very suited to him this time though.

Sprinters
It's definitely not a Tour for a lot of sprint victories and many teams have not even brought one. Not all flat stages will be contested by them but there's still a number of stage that should end in a bunch sprint.

• Caleb Ewan won three stages in the Tour last year, enough said.
• Seems like Thierry Gouvenou made sure a number of the sprint stages should suit Arnaud Démare but guess what; he's not starting.
• Freshly minted European (and Italian) Champion Giacomo Nizzolo will be in the mood to get his first win (and more) in a grand tour. (I can't help myself and just have to say that if Mathieu van der Poel had gone right instead of left he wouldn't have gotten boxed in and would have easily won the European Championship.)
• There isn't a year where Deceuninck - Quick-Step doesn't manage to bring a good sprinter, in 2020 Sam Bennett is to do it for them.
• Elia Viviani won one stage last year and is definitely able to add to that.
• Peter Sagan might not win a single bunch sprint but he will still be bringing the green jersey to Paris, extending his record.

Feel free to leave your predictions for jersey winners and other speculations in the comments below.

Man of the Tour

Normally I'd be saying Peter Sagan (as I do every year) but we have a really weird Tour this year. I'd love to hear your predictions for this category.

Tour Trivia

The longest stage this year, Chauvigny to Sarran (218 km), is the shortest ever longest stage in Tour history.

The North of France is ignored completely this year; see the map.

View attached image.