please give me the math on this. i won 6 games even though one was removed as a win. although i did get the game. but i entered 2,975..and my latest win was a few days ago and i will never get it. apprears to be a dupe with the guy being on trade probation and only having one copy of the game in his inventory...and it was a 3 copy giveaway. so what would the math be on mine. as i have no clue how u guys are getting your difference here. also i created 7 giveaways.
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Yeah you got it right. Im not sure how to treat fake giveaways in all of this (whether the system removes them eventually or not). Statistically you were predicted to have won 2.03 more games than you have so you are one of the unlucky ones. Congrats :P
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Estimated wins: 3.09
Gifts won: 1
Total Difference: 2.09
Summary: I'm about to win 2 gifts very soon. Preemtive QED.
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Giveaways Entered: 2,307
Gifts Won: 0
Estimated Wins: 3.62
Unlucky
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I must be petty high up on the lucky scale
Entries 1,409
Estimated wins 5.2
Actual wins 11
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You're right but I don't want to bore everyone with a diatribe about binomial distribution functions and how even the estimated wins number isn't accurate because estimated wins should be a probability distribution curve and the truly unluckiest is the person with the least area to the left of their actual wins on said curve. That all seems a lot less fun though :)
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I'm lucky i think, thought i won 35 but 3 giveaways were fake.
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First off this is not a post for complaining so if you are here to say "I never win anything" try another post :)
The feature in the profile that tracks your estimated wins is intriguing to me and I am curious which Steamgifter out there is the "unluckiest" statistically. Your profile has estimated wins which is based on the chance you have of winning determined on the giveaways you typically enter. So if you entered 1000 giveaways that each had 1000 entries your estimated wins would be 1.00. If you enter more AAA giveaways with lots of entries it will take you a lot longer to get an estimated win while if you enter only group giveaways you should have more estimated wins.
To be the Unluckiest Steamgifter you must have gifted at least one game!
Post below your estimated wins minus your actual wins and the biggest positive difference between them is statistically the unluckiest member.
Anyone with a negative difference has beaten the odds and won more games than they are statistically predicted to have won.
I'll go first :)
EDIT: So far unluckiest is KuroiSama who statistically should have won 22.69 more games than actual - pretty unlucky :)
Luckiest so far is Jatan11t who has won 18.33 more games than estimated
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