First off this is not a post for complaining so if you are here to say "I never win anything" try another post :)

The feature in the profile that tracks your estimated wins is intriguing to me and I am curious which Steamgifter out there is the "unluckiest" statistically. Your profile has estimated wins which is based on the chance you have of winning determined on the giveaways you typically enter. So if you entered 1000 giveaways that each had 1000 entries your estimated wins would be 1.00. If you enter more AAA giveaways with lots of entries it will take you a lot longer to get an estimated win while if you enter only group giveaways you should have more estimated wins.

To be the Unluckiest Steamgifter you must have gifted at least one game!

Post below your estimated wins minus your actual wins and the biggest positive difference between them is statistically the unluckiest member.

Anyone with a negative difference has beaten the odds and won more games than they are statistically predicted to have won.

I'll go first :)

EDIT: So far unluckiest is KuroiSama who statistically should have won 22.69 more games than actual - pretty unlucky :)

Luckiest so far is Jatan11t who has won 18.33 more games than estimated

11 years ago*

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Gifts Won
40
Estimated Wins
62.66

11 years ago
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-22, new winner :(

11 years ago
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Can't touch this. P

11 years ago
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Gifts Won: 6

Estimated Wins: 5.50

Difference: 0.50

Entries: 2,451

11 years ago
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Gifts Won:: 85
Estimated Wins:: 79.16
Total:: -5.84
11 years ago
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Gifts Won0
Estimated Wins2.22

11 years ago
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34.80 Estimated wins

34 wins

Pretty accurate.

11 years ago
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Me :(

11 years ago
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How can you possibly call yourself unlucky with all those juicy Death Rally wins under your belt?

11 years ago
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lol

11 years ago
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that gif = win

11 years ago
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Gifts Won
2
Estimated Wins
6.33

11 years ago
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— 4.4 :D

11 years ago
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I'm on it:
Giveaways Entered: 2,393
Gifts Won: 5
Estimated Wins: 5.00

I's statistically even.

11 years ago
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won 10 estimated 9.14 :p difference 0.86

11 years ago
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Let's see:
43.06 - 30 = 13.06
But, damn, someone has higher. I don't feel special anymore! T.T

11 years ago
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Giveaways Entered:1,220

Estimated Wins: 2.58

Gifts Won: 0

11 years ago
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Estimated Wins: 14.96

Actual Wins: 15

Difference: -0.04

11 years ago
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2,951
11
10.49

11 years ago
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Giveaways Entered 3,745

Gifts Won 40

Estimated Wins 26.00

11 years ago
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Shouldn't the luckiest/unluckiest be normalized relative to estimated number of wins? Someone that's expected to win 10 but only won 1 is unluckier than someone expected to win 1,000 that actually won 990. I propose the following:
Take ((estimated wins) - (actual wins)) / (estimated wins))
The issue with this is that everyone with 0 wins is then on equal footing. Not sure of the best way to handle that.

11 years ago
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Need to also take into account the standard deviation and sample size to more accurately assert someone as the most unlucky.

11 years ago
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Someone's been listening in their stats class!

11 years ago
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I agree

11 years ago
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Estimated Wins: 14.36
Wins: 5
Difference: 9.36
I've been pretty unlucky. Worst luck, I have been a part of a public giveaway that only had 2 entries, and I still lost.

11 years ago
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Estimated wins - 0.9
Giveaways entered 655
Difference is 0.9.
The sad thing is that 90% of the giveaways I enter, is for 1 game, called the ship. And I've entered over 500 of the ship giveaways. Still haven't gotten the ship...

11 years ago
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So buy it yourself.

11 years ago
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Can we rather have percentual offset from estimated to real?

I would be a potential winner/looser(?) then

11 years ago
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I'm not sure whether be glad that this isn't a new thread, or to call this a necro.

11 years ago
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estimated win 4.16 actual win is 1 :(

11 years ago
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Giveaways Entered - 4,247
Gifts Won - 12
Estimated Wins - 10.69
Difference - +2.69
Not bad :D

11 years ago
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-11 :(

11 years ago
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Giveaways Entered: 350

Gifts Won: 25

Estimated Wins: 21.55

11 years ago
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Gifts Won: 147
Estimated Wins: 147.12
Difference: 0.12
Entries: 4,187

Quite accurate :>

11 years ago
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Closed 11 years ago by Jbro19.