LT;DR: wanted to know if there were any other factors in play beyond what is covered in the faq; Already answered, its sheer lack of luck.

Thanks for all who commented and had the patience

Hi there

Before anyone says 'RNG', 'its luck' and such i already know that.

What i want to understand is if im missing something about steamgifts, if theres something i didn't get about it. Im here for over a year, entered giveaways of all sorts, from groups, privates, puzzles... even giveaways with around 5% chance of winning (even over that if i can recall). Surely those were few but i have been there.

And no wins- bad luck, i can understand that.

The thing is, every single profile ive checked on the foruns, people with 1 year (and even less time) around here were all winners; Most of a bunch of giveaways, some few... but no zeroes like me. I got bugged about it and the last few topics ive commented i started to check a bunch of profiles... ive checked dozens in the last minutes, not a single unlucky profile.

Am i missing something?

Surely the most winners ive seen had high estimated wins; People in private groups, high cv and such... but ive seen little estimates coupled with 1-7 wins (funny enought was rare seeing 1 wins, almost all ive checked had more then that).

What im doing wrong?

How exactly does steamgifts rng works? Is it trully random, if so by what standarts/code? Hope theres nothing to do with regions or time of entry in a giveaway.
Generally i enter only few minutes before a giveaway ends, i go trought the trouble of checking odds, points and various choices, all in the hopes of better winning chances so waiting to see if the chances are worth the shot come in play... does this behaviour get in the way of my chances in any way?

Is there some or anything to do with all those generic thanks comments that bugs the hell out of me? Ive comented in few entries so far, only when i had something more to say about them but even those are getting tiring as my will to keep coming here gets smaller and smaller.

Anyway, thats it.

And please, if you're here for a year or more with 0 wins post please, so i don't feel like the unluckier active user on the foruns.

11 years ago*

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It is random. You haven't been on the forum too much if you haven't seen anyone without wins.
And I wouldn't call you an "active user on the foruns" by any stretch.

11 years ago
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What i mean is someone who posts/comments; My guess is a majority of users are leechers who don't go much beyond 'thanks' in giveaways.

In all comunnities im in i post little(and generally when i do are long posts), and surely theres places where im much more active then a site where the theme is giveaways.

Im like that in real life as well, the sort of people who generally only talks when theres something to add; if what i would say was already stated by a bunch of people theres no reason. Its different when friendship comes at play but since i started coming to the foruns i hadn't created any bounds yet; By the way it seens like a place where its hard for that to happen, easier to occur in the private groups who use steamgifts, much more close knit and with less random talk(just guessing here).

11 years ago
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Yes, as you admit, you're simply speculating.

11 years ago
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Most of those "unlucky" people are like you and only make a thread after a while of not winning.

11 years ago
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so 1 year became a while ? :)

11 years ago
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Times vary.

Seen some complain after a month of joining.

11 years ago
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In short: It's random. There's nothing to do to increase your odds of winning short of entering more low entry giveaways. You're on the unlucky things but it's just basic statistics that some people are going to be unlucky.

11 years ago
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Also, you're nowhere near the unluckiest person. You can read pretty much every "I'm so unlucky" thread and see the same person referenced in every one of them: khalaq

11 years ago
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I feel bad for the guy.

I think I had some issues in start, but now I'm perfectly fine!

11 years ago
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You know he purposefully loses, right? Plus, he's saving his first win for a game he REALLY wants and knows without a doubt he will be extremely grateful for and will play immediately

11 years ago
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How does one purposefully lose?

11 years ago
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I assume he asks for rerolls whenever he does win.

11 years ago
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He cheats? ;D

11 years ago
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LOL

No, I don't ask for re-rolls whenever I win. I just restrict myself to entering GA's for games I actually want, and I just don't win. That's all. SleepyCat even tried throwing up a few giveaways that were aimed at people like me and I still managed to lose. Heck, I've lost giveaways where I had better than a 50% chance to win. It seems I'm just the poster boy for bad luck. D

11 years ago
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This is adorably sad x3

11 years ago
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Well at your level, you more or less put a couple of dollars on red at a roulette and 4 blacks have come out in a row. Unlucky, but not extraordinary. Khalaq is the legend around here as far as poor luck goes.

Just keep entering and you'll start racking up wins before you know it. Hanging out in the forums will get you a lot better opportunities also.

11 years ago
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Hadn't checked Khalaq's profile, im feeling a little better already (wich is sad since it comes from other peopoles unluck).

Im more sad for the 'unfairness' of his cv/win then anything. But still i hadn't saw anyone with more then a year with 0 wins lol

11 years ago
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It isn't the "unfairness" of cv/win, it's the reality of odds.

Seriously, ask anyone in a casino.

11 years ago
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Well a lot of the people that have been here for more than a year will have been around for some of the more generous developer giveaways.

If you look at your stats page you have actually been on the site for less than 10 months when you take out periods of inactivity. Were you here for this or this for example?

11 years ago
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Variance and sample size. Welcome to the world of a gambler

11 years ago
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Your estimated wins is a little over 2, and you've only entered into 1300-1400 giveaways, it isn't the time that gives the wins, it is persistance. A lot of the older users were here when giveaways had much fewer enteries, so each person had larger chances.

11 years ago
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Now THAT makes much more sense.

Too bad when ive entered i didn't came here often, should had used that opportunity better.

Im much more relieved with the comments guys, thanks! I was afraid i had misunderstood something and doing something wrong.

With the estimates, i do look foward to better chances and always save points for private giveaways and such but... some games that really, really am dying to get my hands on appear often as public giveaways and i can't help myself to try my luck (all of those with 0.01% chance of winning generally) so yeah, that sucks i know

11 years ago
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You have probably missed some groups and giveaways for unlucky people... :/

11 years ago
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My first win was 1,500 entries so chill

11 years ago
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Deleted

This comment was deleted 2 years ago.

11 years ago
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Honestly don't understand how people can complain about not winning... You're not paying a penny to enter giveaways.

11 years ago
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I hate whinning, begging and all that. Im sure many topics have been made doing that in the past (i don't even enter then) but read better next time: i was asking if there was something ive missed, i listed what i knew and have been doing , and genuine questions.

Ive readed the faq and all but who knows, ive seen a lot of poorly covered faqs in other places.

Generally i only complaing of people complaining or people with wins calling themselves unlucky (ive entered i bunch of 'unlucky giveaways', theres always a bunch of those).

11 years ago
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true story

11 years ago
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Bad luck, nothing you can do.

Enter for games you want: if you win that's a pleasant surprise, otherwise nothing is lost.

11 years ago
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Vincer I've been here for about as long as you have, and have entered 4.5X the amount of giveaways you have, but my estimated wins is almost 7X yours. I think you've been entering far too many high profile giveaways where you are up against thousands of others. If there are any smaller titles you want to win, focus on entering those giveaways.

11 years ago
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I do enter high profile/low chance, but i do focus on little ones most of the time

Different then what many user do (from what ive readed on the foruns and private talks) i only apply for games i really want and will play; Thing is most of the giveaways are from cheap games, so most games i want that are cheap i already bought.

By the way, as a fan of indie games and entering the indie scene myself(not yet, but im getting there if the project don't die) most of those ive bought on launch, and the few ive missed i got in bundles. The rest i will never apply for them, i have no interesting in increasing my library with games i don't like or wouldn't play.

11 years ago
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Where's the tl;dr version?

Seriously.

11 years ago
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tl;dr i haven't won anything yet in over a year and feel unlucky

11 years ago
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Yeah that too but i did had doubts on how the random drawins were made. Anyway i added a Tl;DR.

11 years ago
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Odds of winning are constantly getting smaller by the hour as more people join the website and participate in open giveaways. Same happens with contributor giveaways, a few months back my estimated wins was 5 points under my amount of wins (eg: 59 wins, 54 estimated). Today my estimated wins are over my current amount of wins, that alone should point out towards what i just said.

When i joined the "estimated amount of entries" to win something was around 300 entries, almost 2 years ago. Nowadays it's more than likely to be around 2k-3k if not more, i lost track...

The best chances to win something are giveaways with contributor value of at least 30.01 in value, but these are getting rarer by the day, i usually see more giveaways with redicolous amounts of CV or giveaways with CV requirements under 30.00 .

^This said, you are pretty much f*cked, trust me. Unless you get in a private group for giveaways.

11 years ago
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Yeah, i hadn't figured that until ive readed someone else comment; I do recall much fewer entries when ive entered, too bad i rarely came here for months.

Im trying to get into a private group, still working on that, bypassed by people with more cv (few open spots and all).

11 years ago
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Pretty much as everyone else, and you yourself, said - bad luck. There's nothing you can do about it. Some people will win their first giveaway, for some it will take 5000 entries until they win something.

There are a few groups dedicated to people like you, who have entered X amount of giveaways and not won anything, perhaps look into those. They're usually run by very generous people so your first win may even be a triple A game.

11 years ago
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rng

11 years ago
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It isn't allcaps like i wrote so i guess it counts... lol

11 years ago
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1 year, 1350 giveaways and 59 comments? come on! seriously?

11 years ago
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Ozo pls.

11 years ago
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Why? Should i enter in giveaways for games i don't like and will never play?

Should i comment on topics i have nothing to add? Or spam 'thanks!' like theres no tommorrow?

Few of my comments have few lines, most comments i do anywhere aren't far from what ive wrote on the topic; I talk/write when i have something to add.

Im in a forum of close knit friends for something around 8 years, if i can recall correctly my post count is somewhere around 300. I prefer face to face, even chat, and most comments i read everywhere im like 'seriously? Why people spam, state the obvious or repeat what the previous dozens alread said?'.

I guess i should start spamming thanks everywhere and short redundant answers for post counts, that way i will be considered an active and worthy memnber of the community!

Sorry if i got a little carried away, in some other foruns im in im kinda pissed of 'spammers' that fill worthy discussions with nothing to add, all for rep/post count or non-constructive talk(if not flames).

11 years ago
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needs more mad.

11 years ago
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i need to work more on '3 word count' posting skills like those by the way, anywhere i start a topic people complain about walls of text (this one here is one of my smallest) lol

11 years ago
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On one hand, you have a point. But on the other, this is the internet. u mad

11 years ago
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not that you should or smth...but as you wrote you are trying to get in groups. in most groups, i mean real groups not those which pop out every now and than by people who want to leech more, comments / forum activity is a MUST, cause without knowing anything about you, you are just another leecher who just enters GAs, without any comments, whuch by ALL MEANS can't get worse :D

11 years ago
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Yeah i figured that but i guess it will need more time; I won't post randomly for post count, even if its a gauge for activity it would be kinda fake for me and i rather spend time posting where im really willing to. Once in a while ive found topics here that interested me in the discussion, but a certain lack of focus (being a giveaway site and all), too much random posts and all those are far and between (funny that one i wrote must was about Illuminati, and we all know Illuminati is all about gaming).

A work on patience i guess.

11 years ago
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your patiance needed to start working a long time ago :D

11 years ago
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Getting involved in the forums is actually great advice for OP... I only recently really started spending time on here despite being registered for a longish time, and there are a lot of private giveaways lurking + a lot of opportunities to get to know many interesting people. I've made a couple of friends just from the forums and joined a very nice group as well. :)

11 years ago
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lot of people miss the point of this site... this site isn't about winning games... it's about gifting games...

11 years ago
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I agree, ive never won but so what? I didnt make a thread about it. Im happy seeing great games being given away for FREE! Wheather I win them or not.

11 years ago
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Its in the name after all, im not among those people.

I just found strange that after a streak of profiles ive checked all were winners and i tought if there wasn't some rule or something i got wrong, if that didn't happened that way you would never see me make a topic about being unlucky.

And i love gifting, but buying much less games then the big givers around here when i have bucks to spare i gift friends first, steamgifts comes after that. Im still waiting some answers for some of the keys i have to spare, if they're refused then i will make the giveaways. Its a sure shot when a game is in someones wishlist but i always try to push some friends into games i like and think needs more love.

11 years ago
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Completly true since most winners don't even play their winnings, GOOD POINT BRA!

11 years ago
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Boo effing Hoo Hoo

11 years ago
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Seeing how you don't have much reputation on SG (64 comments after one year...), if you really want to win, you need to:
-create few Bioshock Infinite/Skyrim/other-highly-sought-AAA-games public giveaways
-with this credit, you can ask for some private giveaway group invites (or create your own, but don't expect people with Skyrim to join, at least at first)
-after invite, you need to create additional AAA-games group giveaways so they won't kick you

After this 3 easy steps you'll get chance to get into many <10 people giveaways - and when you enter 100 <10 people giveaways, you practically MUST win something. Unless you have really, really, REALLY bad luck.

11 years ago
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Aw cmon guy, you barely entered 1000 giveaways :P try hurr-durr!

11 years ago
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Comprehensive Explanation
Whether the numbers truly are random or not I do not know, since I am not aware how they are generated here.
Maybe someone from the staff the elaborate.

11 years ago
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Your estimated wins:wins ratio is only -2, so your whining too early.

Consider a few giveaways where you have 50% chance of winning. (ie. 2 entrants)

Each one would net you 0.5 estimated wins. In essence you flipped four losing coins in a row. Definitely possible.

The fact that you only enter a few giveaways does not improve your chances of winning any individual giveaways.

Also if you wanna know how RNG works you better brush up on your crypto Shits crazy hard with all that bit shifting

11 years ago
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I won yesterday, so I think you're alone now

11 years ago
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NNONOOOOOOOO. CG sits in front of his computer all day choosing winners. (sarcasm ends)

11 years ago
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Closed 11 years ago by Vincer.