Actually I've played and finished Cave Story on my PSP already. It's why I didn't want to buy a steam version, but figure that I still want a copy anyhow just in case I want to return to it.
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:o I see is it possible for me to get the ship :P
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Thanks ExDec! That is indeed generous of you. If possible I'll take the Binding of Isaac + Wrath of The Lamb DLC key then - really appreciate it!
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Whoops sorry, I truly am a newbie haha :)
Actually my steam client is having some problems - I'm logged on but it says I'm not.... hmmm
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Thanks again ExDec! Got the Isaac key and it works perfectly :)
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No no, I understand re: Dungeon Defenders, and I know 200 times overall isn't alot. But when half of those 200 entries is ONE game - Cave Story + - and a game with not many other people entering (so the odds are better for me), that's another matter.
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I've entered over 3700 giveaways and only won 4 games and one of those was a developer giveaway where they gave away 25000 copies of a game, with only 14000 people entered (so everyone got one).
It's all luck, so don't worry about it. Just remember it costs you nothing, so any win is awesome and every loss lost nothing.
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It's all just random. Just do the math. Even if there were only 100 entries, you still only had 1/100 chance to win (1% if percents suit you better).
I've entered over 2000 giveaways and won three (all DLC with around 100 entries). It's just random luck. You're not doing anything wrong. :)
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But it's not that simple, surely? The rules of probability doesn't work that simply. I SHOULD have better odds if I concentrate on a game with lots of giveaways and few people entering to win it. It's not like I keep on entering to win Skyrim, which has thousands of people wanting to win. Cave Story+ closes half the time with 100-200 entries only!
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You should win one around the 100 mark. But it may happen or not, just keep trying.
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If you were to enter 100 giveaways with a 1% chance of winning each one(much better than the usual odds as far as this site goes), you would only have a 64% chance to win. Just keep entering and don't worry about how often you win. It will happen eventually.
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Same thing here for Ingite. ;)
Just believe my friend.
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In all my entries I've only legit won twice. Once was a give-away where it was literally impossible to lose!
Key to SteamGifts is to never expect a win. You're not likely to win, even at 0.2% average win rates according to statistics. Enter any give-aways that catch your interest and you'll (maybe) win once. Some people just have terrible luck.
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You do know that you only have <1% chance of winning giveaways with 100+ entries. 200+ people means you have <0.5%, and 400+ people means <0.25%.
So, a rough estimation. Winning means 100%, so you probably need to enter 100 giveaways with AT MOST 100 entries to win.
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That's not how odds work, bro. If you have a 1% chance of winning and you enter 100 give-aways, your odds of winning are still not 100%. You have 100 times 1% odds of winning.
Consider a 1/4 odds of winning and entering two give-aways. The following possibilities exist: (W1 = Winning, L2 = 25% odds of losing, L3 = 25% odds of losing, L4 = 25% odds of losing)
W1W1 (You win both.)
W1L2 (You lose one.)
W1L3 (You still lose one.)
W1L4 (You still lose one.)
L2L2 (You lose both.)
L2L3 (You lose both.)
L2L4 (You lose both.)
L3L2 (You lose both.)
L3L3 (You lose both.)
L3L4 (You lose both.)
L4L2 (You lose both.)
L4L3 (You lose both.)
L4L4 (You lose both.)
L2W1 (You win one!)
L3W1 (You win one!)
L4W1 (You win one!)
There are 16 possibilities. Out of these, only 7 have genuine odds of you winning. So 7/16, or about 43.75% of the possibilities result in a win! And that's with 1 out of 4 odds for winning. 1% win may rise to 25% or something if you enter a 100 give-aways but it will never approximate 100%.
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I'm not the greatest at probability so this post is very enlightening!
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Hello, sorry for being new but I just joined last week, and I figured I should try to concentrate on one small game that I wanted with large amounts of giveaways and not so many people entering to win. So I picked CAVE STORY+. Well, I have entered 92 different entries of CAVE STORY+ by now, and I still can't seem to have any luck in winning it :( Many of the entries only had 100+ people entering, and I still couldn't make it.... Can anyone tell me if I may be doing something wrong? Apologies for being a newbie but just need some advice - thanks a lot!
(I also picked DUNGEON DEFENDER COLLECTION, and I entered that one 26 times, but at least it's more understandable that I don't win since many more people want it)
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