Hello, sorry for being new but I just joined last week, and I figured I should try to concentrate on one small game that I wanted with large amounts of giveaways and not so many people entering to win. So I picked CAVE STORY+. Well, I have entered 92 different entries of CAVE STORY+ by now, and I still can't seem to have any luck in winning it :( Many of the entries only had 100+ people entering, and I still couldn't make it.... Can anyone tell me if I may be doing something wrong? Apologies for being a newbie but just need some advice - thanks a lot!

(I also picked DUNGEON DEFENDER COLLECTION, and I entered that one 26 times, but at least it's more understandable that I don't win since many more people want it)

11 years ago*

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Perhaps you can try out the freely available version of Cave Story in the meanwhile?

11 years ago
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Actually I've played and finished Cave Story on my PSP already. It's why I didn't want to buy a steam version, but figure that I still want a copy anyhow just in case I want to return to it.

11 years ago
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I can give you Binding of Isaac + Wrath of The Lamb DLC key if you want. I don't want to make a giveaway for it and I don't need that key. Hell, I can add The Ship Pack too if you need.

11 years ago
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pretty generous haha

11 years ago
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Don't need that stuff myself (already have it) and it's Christmas time... oh wait... it's not Christmas time anymore! Gimme back my cookies you fat thief in a red coat!

11 years ago
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:o I see is it possible for me to get the ship :P

11 years ago
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Here you are. :)

11 years ago
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Thanks ExDec! That is indeed generous of you. If possible I'll take the Binding of Isaac + Wrath of The Lamb DLC key then - really appreciate it!

11 years ago
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Well, accept me on Steam then.:)

11 years ago
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Done - thanks! :)

11 years ago
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Would be nice if you could put yourself online so I can give you the key through Steam chat. Haha.

11 years ago
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Whoops sorry, I truly am a newbie haha :)

Actually my steam client is having some problems - I'm logged on but it says I'm not.... hmmm

11 years ago
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Interesting, indeed. Have you tried restarting Steam?

11 years ago
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Thanks again ExDec! Got the Isaac key and it works perfectly :)

11 years ago
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I would accept it for free xD :P

11 years ago
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I entered the Dungeon Defenders Collection about 5 times and actually won... It was on my 500th entry too! But seriously don't complain. You only have 200 entries -_-

11 years ago
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No no, I understand re: Dungeon Defenders, and I know 200 times overall isn't alot. But when half of those 200 entries is ONE game - Cave Story + - and a game with not many other people entering (so the odds are better for me), that's another matter.

11 years ago
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I've entered over 3700 giveaways and only won 4 games and one of those was a developer giveaway where they gave away 25000 copies of a game, with only 14000 people entered (so everyone got one).

It's all luck, so don't worry about it. Just remember it costs you nothing, so any win is awesome and every loss lost nothing.

11 years ago
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True true, thanks for keeping it in perspective!

11 years ago
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Hmmm I also entered legend of grimrock and there's been a ton thanks to the humble bundle but all the ones I've enter it seems that I can't win either looks around greedily >.> though joking aside just keep at it.

11 years ago
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It's all just random. Just do the math. Even if there were only 100 entries, you still only had 1/100 chance to win (1% if percents suit you better).

I've entered over 2000 giveaways and won three (all DLC with around 100 entries). It's just random luck. You're not doing anything wrong. :)

11 years ago
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But it's not that simple, surely? The rules of probability doesn't work that simply. I SHOULD have better odds if I concentrate on a game with lots of giveaways and few people entering to win it. It's not like I keep on entering to win Skyrim, which has thousands of people wanting to win. Cave Story+ closes half the time with 100-200 entries only!

11 years ago
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You should win one around the 100 mark. But it may happen or not, just keep trying.

11 years ago
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Haha, thanks! Well I'm only 8 entries more to go, so hopefully that will prove to be the lucky number. Appreciate the level-headed encouragement :)

11 years ago
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just remember that the fact you did not win so far do not increase ur chances to win the next one.

11 years ago
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Ah, I see. What you and kranka says makes sense.

11 years ago
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The rule of probability only ensures you, that you have the same chances on each giveaway. No earlier giveaway affects the next. So it doesn't matter how many giveaways you enter.

11 years ago
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thanks - that makes sense!

11 years ago
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If you were to enter 100 giveaways with a 1% chance of winning each one(much better than the usual odds as far as this site goes), you would only have a 64% chance to win. Just keep entering and don't worry about how often you win. It will happen eventually.

11 years ago
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Don't expect to win anything, you're gonna be let down. Only giveaway I've won was some random game I didn't even want (but quite enjoyed anyways)

11 years ago
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Same thing here for Ingite. ;)
Just believe my friend.

11 years ago
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another QQ adept

11 years ago
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i'll be a master QQ then.. sob sob puke sob

11 years ago
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Average entries for a public Cave Story+ giveaway: 420. It's not surprising that you haven't won after entering 92 of them.

11 years ago
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In all my entries I've only legit won twice. Once was a give-away where it was literally impossible to lose!

Key to SteamGifts is to never expect a win. You're not likely to win, even at 0.2% average win rates according to statistics. Enter any give-aways that catch your interest and you'll (maybe) win once. Some people just have terrible luck.

11 years ago
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Try galagiveaways, fewer entrants.

11 years ago
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Thanks! Will try it out :)

11 years ago
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You do know that you only have <1% chance of winning giveaways with 100+ entries. 200+ people means you have <0.5%, and 400+ people means <0.25%.

So, a rough estimation. Winning means 100%, so you probably need to enter 100 giveaways with AT MOST 100 entries to win.

11 years ago
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You're right, my calculations are awful....

11 years ago
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That's not how odds work, bro. If you have a 1% chance of winning and you enter 100 give-aways, your odds of winning are still not 100%. You have 100 times 1% odds of winning.

Consider a 1/4 odds of winning and entering two give-aways. The following possibilities exist: (W1 = Winning, L2 = 25% odds of losing, L3 = 25% odds of losing, L4 = 25% odds of losing)

W1W1 (You win both.)
W1L2 (You lose one.)
W1L3 (You still lose one.)
W1L4 (You still lose one.)
L2L2 (You lose both.)
L2L3 (You lose both.)
L2L4 (You lose both.)
L3L2 (You lose both.)
L3L3 (You lose both.)
L3L4 (You lose both.)
L4L2 (You lose both.)
L4L3 (You lose both.)
L4L4 (You lose both.)
L2W1 (You win one!)
L3W1 (You win one!)
L4W1 (You win one!)

There are 16 possibilities. Out of these, only 7 have genuine odds of you winning. So 7/16, or about 43.75% of the possibilities result in a win! And that's with 1 out of 4 odds for winning. 1% win may rise to 25% or something if you enter a 100 give-aways but it will never approximate 100%.

11 years ago
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I'm not the greatest at probability so this post is very enlightening!

11 years ago
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I have entered 200+ Cave Story+ giveaways (and yes, and I havent won it yet), just have to keep trying instead of crying!

11 years ago
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Gosh lol, ok!

11 years ago
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Closed 11 years ago by grimfarrow.