0.01%? Or less? I've been sending entries but haven't gotten anything so I guess it must be very low. Also, if you've already won a giveaway, what's the first giveaway you won?

10 years ago*

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i already won 7 giveaways first one was UFO: Afterlight

10 years ago
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1 / the number of entries

10 years ago
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And you can multiply that by one hundred to get the result in procents.

10 years ago
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Number of copies, anyone?

10 years ago
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You're right.
It's
Number of copies
/
Number of entries

10 years ago
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I won 2 giveaways in the same hour, same person, under 300 entries on both giveaway

10 years ago
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Cheater. Or maybe that's because you're a chicken, uhm...

10 years ago
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Cheacken

10 years ago
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I remember a long while back I had several Fortix giveaways up at once and one guy won three of them. Was quite the amusing reason to have to request rerolls.

10 years ago
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First win: DayZ (group)

  • but never win normal public single giveaway, after sg down i have 3400 entries = no public win = this chance to win :D
10 years ago
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just won one I entered today so Im gonna say: it varies

10 years ago
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Deleted

This comment was deleted 5 years ago.

10 years ago
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One has to wonder why someone would come in to the topic in the first place if the subject of discussion is one that they abhor?

10 years ago
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to make fun obviously.

10 years ago
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Don't judge.

10 years ago
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:3

10 years ago
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One has to wonder why you're talking like a twat. Have you never seen a thread here with a misleading title? Or a title that had nothing to do with the OP?

10 years ago
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I just stupidened because of you.

10 years ago
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1/69

10 years ago
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0.0144927536231884

10 years ago
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zero

10 years ago
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you've been sending "entrees"? To who and where? how much does it cost? I'm feeling super hungry right now

10 years ago
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Very low. I have entered a huge amount of entries and I didn't win a single one.

10 years ago
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"6 entries"
"Huge"

10 years ago
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Entries counter has been reset recently. ;)

10 years ago
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10 years ago
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0.4685% +/-0.0356% to be exact

10 years ago
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cutting away the people who mock you, a giveaway have ONE game, and ONE person will be chosen to get said game, from everyone entering. As most public giveaways have between 600 and 5000 entries, that means that the chance of winning a game is between 1/600 and 1/5000 roughly.
Some giveaways will have several copies, and will be denominated by "(x keys)" after the name of the game. In such cases it will be 3/600 to 3/5000. again, these are rough numbers.

As such, while giveaways are certainly possible to win, it's hardly plausible. You're probably going to get more games participating in the chat or forums, being on the prowl for free keys simply listed.

My first win was Nimble Quest, and so far the only game i've won. Not the only game i've gotten from this site however.

10 years ago
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tl;dr:

x: the entries you got for a giveaway (number of copies being given away)
n: total entries that giveaway has
your chance to win = x/n

10 years ago
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Technically, the chance that you win is 50%. Either you win or you don't :D

10 years ago
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... While i cannot refute this logical statement completely, it's a very depressing notion that with 50/50 odds, i've failed 100 times in a row ;)

10 years ago
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Haha, yeah. I know that feeling :D

10 years ago
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It's actually quite easy to refute.

10 years ago
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There are two possibilities that need to sum 100%, what doesn't mean each must be 50%, only that if win is 1/2498 to loose is 2497/2498.

10 years ago
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thanks for the lecture, einstein. :)

10 years ago
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thanks for the comment, einstein. :)

10 years ago
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hey, i'm not einstein. i'm just a poor boy. i need no sympathy.

10 years ago
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Because I'm easy come, easy go,

10 years ago
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little high, little low

10 years ago
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Anyway the wind blows doesn't really matter to me, to me.

10 years ago
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how about no

10 years ago
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none - I win all GiveAways, so there's none left for you :(

10 years ago
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zelghadis is a mathematical phenomen! You know, sense of life is 42. So if you multiplicate this with the first letter zelgh has in his name as number in the alphabet- 26- you can see that this number divided by the number of numbers in his normal profile pic - 4 - multiplicated by the years he is on steamgifts -2- and then take the difference between the numbers of letters in his actual name and his profile pic/short name, 5, multiplicated with the difference with his created and won giveaways at this moment- 11, and add it so the sum, and add the difference between his and my numbers of letters in name, 1, you get the number of his wins!

So, to answer the OPs Question, you can easily increase your chance by:

  1. Making the sense of life higher somehow...
  2. having a letter that comes late in alphabet as your first in your name
  3. Having a small/no letters in your profile pic
  4. Being on Steamgifts for a long time
  5. Having a very short moniker
  6. Creating more GAs than you won yet
  7. Having a long name
  8. being gud in math.

So, I conclude that the OP's problem is:

  1. Having "f" being the first letter of his name
  2. has too many letters in his pic
  3. Being way...too new... like a new-born on earth... on steamgifts
  4. Op's moniker is not shorter than his actual nickname
  5. Having created no GAs
  6. Having a short name in general
  7. Not knowing how to work with propabilties.

Thanks for your attention!

10 years ago
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That is indeed a very good explanation. As you have such a straightforward thinking, and XCOM:EW on your wishlist, you may find this thread interesting. Or an other, older one about vouchers. Maybe both.

10 years ago
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It's true. Giveaways entered: 143. Gifts won: 602. Every time zelghadis enters a giveaway, he ends up winning 3.2 others that he didn't even enter!

10 years ago
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Giveaways Entered
327
Gifts Won
604
Makes no sense? oO

10 years ago
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So hard to read sticky at the very TOP of forum?

10 years ago
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Sacred Gold, the only giveaway I have one thus far, this is like gambling man, it's all based on chance yo~

10 years ago
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install steamgifts extension for chrome, so you can see wining chances.

10 years ago
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10 years ago
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MIN(1, NumberOfCopies / NumberOfEntries)

10 years ago
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If there are 0 entires this will exception, sloppy code. :|

10 years ago
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Good point

10 years ago
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Indeed... very sloppy code:

// very basic implementation
me = this.user;
if(Giveaway.Entries.Contains(me)){
MyChancesToWin = min(1, Giveaway.Game.Count / Giveaway.Entries.Count());
MyChancesToWin = max(0, min(1, CalculaceOtherEvents(MyChancesToWin, Giveaway))); // see comments below
}
else MyChancesToWin = 0;

Of course this code still is quite sloppy... this doesn't take into accout possible revokes (1 / Giveaway.Entries.Count() per revoke, + if other user, - if you). Then again you need to take into account probability giveaway will be removed by creator or moderator... of course SG server may have some problems etc. Basically for every event you need to ProbabilityOfEventOccuring * ProbabilityBalanceChangeCreatedByEventOccuring... then it should be about accurate. Then you can calculate in how many entries you can win... but then it would be expected value... and expected value without variance or standard deviation is very unprecise and can make people make wrong assumptions :)

Of course all of this is correct only as long as you assume SG pseudorandom number generator is good estimator of random number generator... and of course only if you assume you make infinite (or at least numerous) number of wins as per central limit theorem - I think now you get it :)

10 years ago
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Surely your chances of winning a giveaway with 0 entries are quite exceptional indeed?

10 years ago
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I don't care how low the odds are for winning a game. The people offering games for free deserve my utmost respect. However, I won't visit steamgifts ever again if I don't win anything in 1000 entries.

10 years ago
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Then I can suggest to only enter giveaways with less than 1000 entries..

10 years ago
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A big loss....

10 years ago
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Thanks! :)

10 years ago
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0 giveway

10 years ago
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Studying math won't help you much, but i but I would advise it

10 years ago
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Giveaways Entered 79

Gifts Won 80

10 years ago
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Luckiest guy on earth!!!

10 years ago
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Closed 10 years ago by lxlt.