i already won 7 giveaways first one was UFO: Afterlight
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I won 2 giveaways in the same hour, same person, under 300 entries on both giveaway
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Cheater. Or maybe that's because you're a chicken, uhm...
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just won one I entered today so Im gonna say: it varies
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One has to wonder why you're talking like a twat. Have you never seen a thread here with a misleading title? Or a title that had nothing to do with the OP?
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I think you need to study your maths.
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html
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cutting away the people who mock you, a giveaway have ONE game, and ONE person will be chosen to get said game, from everyone entering. As most public giveaways have between 600 and 5000 entries, that means that the chance of winning a game is between 1/600 and 1/5000 roughly.
Some giveaways will have several copies, and will be denominated by "(x keys)" after the name of the game. In such cases it will be 3/600 to 3/5000. again, these are rough numbers.
As such, while giveaways are certainly possible to win, it's hardly plausible. You're probably going to get more games participating in the chat or forums, being on the prowl for free keys simply listed.
My first win was Nimble Quest, and so far the only game i've won. Not the only game i've gotten from this site however.
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tl;dr:
x: the entries you got for a giveaway (number of copies being given away)
n: total entries that giveaway has
your chance to win = x/n
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Technically, the chance that you win is 50%. Either you win or you don't :D
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zelghadis is a mathematical phenomen! You know, sense of life is 42. So if you multiplicate this with the first letter zelgh has in his name as number in the alphabet- 26- you can see that this number divided by the number of numbers in his normal profile pic - 4 - multiplicated by the years he is on steamgifts -2- and then take the difference between the numbers of letters in his actual name and his profile pic/short name, 5, multiplicated with the difference with his created and won giveaways at this moment- 11, and add it so the sum, and add the difference between his and my numbers of letters in name, 1, you get the number of his wins!
So, to answer the OPs Question, you can easily increase your chance by:
So, I conclude that the OP's problem is:
Thanks for your attention!
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That is indeed a very good explanation. As you have such a straightforward thinking, and XCOM:EW on your wishlist, you may find this thread interesting. Or an other, older one about vouchers. Maybe both.
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It's true. Giveaways entered: 143. Gifts won: 602. Every time zelghadis enters a giveaway, he ends up winning 3.2 others that he didn't even enter!
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Sacred Gold, the only giveaway I have one thus far, this is like gambling man, it's all based on chance yo~
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or in other words http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymPpIzaanhY
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Indeed... very sloppy code:
// very basic implementation
me = this.user;
if(Giveaway.Entries.Contains(me)){
MyChancesToWin = min(1, Giveaway.Game.Count / Giveaway.Entries.Count());
MyChancesToWin = max(0, min(1, CalculaceOtherEvents(MyChancesToWin, Giveaway))); // see comments below
}
else MyChancesToWin = 0;
Of course this code still is quite sloppy... this doesn't take into accout possible revokes (1 / Giveaway.Entries.Count() per revoke, + if other user, - if you). Then again you need to take into account probability giveaway will be removed by creator or moderator... of course SG server may have some problems etc. Basically for every event you need to ProbabilityOfEventOccuring * ProbabilityBalanceChangeCreatedByEventOccuring... then it should be about accurate. Then you can calculate in how many entries you can win... but then it would be expected value... and expected value without variance or standard deviation is very unprecise and can make people make wrong assumptions :)
Of course all of this is correct only as long as you assume SG pseudorandom number generator is good estimator of random number generator... and of course only if you assume you make infinite (or at least numerous) number of wins as per central limit theorem - I think now you get it :)
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Surely your chances of winning a giveaway with 0 entries are quite exceptional indeed?
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Studying math won't help you much, but i but I would advise it
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0.01%? Or less? I've been sending entries but haven't gotten anything so I guess it must be very low. Also, if you've already won a giveaway, what's the first giveaway you won?
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