1 year ago

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Account > My Status > Probability of Winning Per Day

1 year ago
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1 year ago
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(1*numofcopies)/number of entries
there is no bad luck protection.

1 year ago
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100 is a pretty low number of entries... Level 0 giveaways often have thousands of entries, so on average you'd have to enter a couple thousand giveaways to win one.

If you want better odds, you'll need to join some of the groups like Unlucky 7 that are geared towards helping newer members. That or raise your level to get into the giveaways that have level restrictions to weed out the bots.

1 year ago
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No other requirement. You haven't even entered 100 giveaways dude. Also, you've just registered 3 days ago. You're probably lucky but just too impatience. Unlucky people could get years to have their first win.

Try to be patience, join some groups and private giveaways, or later if they're not accepting fresh account..

1 year ago
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You just need to keep entering. The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against us on this site, especially for those at lower levels. For example I've won 0.62% of the giveaways I've entered, and the site tells me that I've won 9 more games than estimated when I first joined. So even with winning just over half a percent of the time, I've been very lucky. 2 of my wins were level 0 public giveaways, and I'm honestly shocked that I got them.

Check this out: https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community

If you want to increase your odds, give away some games. Even just giving one game that has contributor value will bump you up to level 1, and that will increase your chances by a lot.

1 year ago
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for newbies should add * as too say level doesn't directly increase chances, but level restricted giveaways cut out underlevel entries

1 year ago
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If you were unlucky, so I could be cursed.

1 year ago
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1 year ago
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It is possible.
But be aware that most popular games will have several thousand entries.
So in order to have a near 100% chance of winning, you'll have to enter that many times.

I try to only enter giveaways when there is less than 1,000 entries, that way i can have a decent chance of winning a game in a month or two. As that is how long it will take to enter 1,000 giveaways.

Another option, is checking back about once an hour, to check for flash giveaways that people make, and end in an hour. Which is the minimum time allowed for giveaways.

I just won a goofy RTS called "SWINE HD Remaster", only because i happened to check in and saw it had very few entries and only minutes left.

Most of the time i have extra points, so spend them on long shots, which are games on the wishlist section, which most often have 3,000-5,000 entries by the time they finish, and i have never won a giveaways with more than 1,600 entries per copy. Most of my wins are from giveaways with less than 500 entries per copy.

Simple rules:

  1. Focus on games on your wishlist
  2. Only enter for games your interested in, if they're in their last hour, and have less than 1,000 entries.
  3. Check "Groups" and "Multiple Copies" tabs, to find giveaways with the best odds of winning.
  4. Make a few giveaways and level yourself up a bit, as most better giveaways are for level 2 and up.
  5. Check the Discussions section each day, as there are many private giveaways shared.

Currently the Community Train is almost up to 1900 private giveaways, with most of them having less than 500 entries.

Be patient, buy a couple indie bundles to make some giveaways and level up, and chat with us in the forum. Eventually you too will be visited by our Great SpaceCat!!!

Good Luck
+
Welcome to SG! o/

1 year ago
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most popular games will have several thousand entries. So in order to have a near 100% chance of winning [emphasis mine], you'll have to enter that many times.

Not to be pedantic or anything, just wanted to share a fun fact:

Let’s say you enter N giveaways, and that your chance of winning a copy is 1/N for every single one of these N; the probability of you winning at least one copy out of these N giveaways is actually surprisingly far from 100%. As N go up from 1, the value of said probability quickly converges to 1-1/e (the numeric value is about 63.2%).

1 year ago
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Thank you for posting that since it is a common misunderstanding of probability. While statistically you have to enter 1000 giveaways with 1000 entries each to win one, that doesn't mean 100% chance of winning one.

1 year ago
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1 year ago
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Do you leave comments in giveaways? Saying "Thank You" in a giveaway will show up in the GA creator's message folder. A lot of people hate getting spammed with Thank You messages, so blacklist people that do it.

For other people, they'll specifically request that you don't leave a message unless you're the winner. If you DO leave a message, they'll take that to mean you didn't read their instructions and are therefore a bot to be blacklisted.

1 year ago
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1 year ago
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Another reason for blacklisting people who say "Thank you" is because the bots/auto-joiners/scripts do the same. They leave a "thank you" message automatically, thus people will suspect you are a bot too (Specially if it's a new account at level 0).

On the other hand, not saying "Thank you" after wining will also get you black listed, as it is both unpolite and another common trait with bots/auto-joiners/scripts.

See https://www.steamgifts.com/discussion/pxlgT/reasons-for-blacklist (though not all reasons listed here are that common).

1 year ago
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In general just having an account here is enough reason for some people to blacklist, and making a thread simply increases your visibility thus allowing them to notice you. People blacklist for basically any reason since there's no requisites to it, it is as easy as clicking a button. So just don't pay much attention to it, it's impossible to not get blacklisted by at least a few random users.

And about not winning giveaways, it is truly random, it's just as possible to win your very first giveaway as it is to never ever win a single one. So it all comes down to statistics. If you keep entering you'll have better chances of eventually winning one, but it usually takes at least a few thousands for a first win. Alternatively you can create giveaways yourself to gain access to level restricted giveaways, participate in the forums and enter private giveaways with better chances (fewer entries), or try to get into some groups.
BTW there's a community train going on right now, those usually have far fewer entries than public GAs.

1 year ago
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1 year ago
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Not zero, just low. As I said, eventually you'll win if you keep at it.
I probably shouldn't be saying this since it kinda goes against the spirit of the site but not every user cares if the winner plays their wins, for example I've never checked if the people that won the giveaways I made have played the games they won from me (or from any other users for that matter), and ultimately don't really care cos once I've delivered the game it is not my problem anymore. Kinda like how I don't care if someone uses a thing I gifted to them in real life or if they just store it away in a closet and immediately forget it exists, if they enjoy the gift is just an extra, not a requirement.

And no, you can't trade any of the games you win here, you must activate them in your own account. Those are the rules, DO NOT BREAK THEM.

1 year ago
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If you promise to play the games you won here within 3 months, you can try joining groups such as taleplay and once you rack up more wins and finished them all, playing matters should be open for you.

Alternatively, unlucky7 is open if you have less than 7 wins. Do not enter the giveaways unless it is stated open for gifters once you reach 8 or more wins, though. Or just quit the group just to be safe if you dont plan to make any giveaways for the group.

If it isnt clear alr, my point is that you will have better chance of winning giveaways by joining non public groups. Just follow their rules and you'll be fine.

1 year ago*
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Also just being active in the forum / community gets you blacklisted. Don't question it, some blacklist entries won't matter anyways.

1 year ago
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100 is nothing i know people who didn't win in over 1000 just keep entering and then you will win sooner or later - also levelling up by making giveaways and earning CV is good because then less people can enter those giveaways - but if you don't want or can't make giveaways - then just keep entering - i mean you only have had your account 3 days which is nothing

1 year ago
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having level 7 I win about 1 time out of 300 giveaways in which I participate
I think you want to win too quickly, but the dice roll doesn't work that way

1 year ago
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Don't worry. I've got lv4 and I enter giveaways since 2015. Won only 82 times and entered giveaways 65948 which gives 0.12% chance of winning :)

1 year ago
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The odds of winning any single giveaway are too low, since you're competing with thousands of people. If you enter one of those big giveaways where they give away like 10000 copies of the game, you're very likely to win, but those giveaways are usually giving away pretty crappy games. There's no compensation of any kind and no accumulating luck over time, it's just random. You could get 3 games in a week or you could get no games in years.

1 year ago
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got my first win after 1200 entries. about the blacklisting people will BL for any reason. Could be the same for WL.

1 year ago
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It was mentioned above, try group Unlucky 7, https://www.steamgifts.com/discussion/orrR5/unlucky7-a-group-for-those-that-won-7-or-fewer-games-some-rule-additions-april-2023
I remember when I first joined and asked myself a question do you even win here. You do but it takes time, sometimes a lot of time. Take part in giveaways and it will come. Good luck.

1 year ago
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1 year ago
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Ehh...you shouldnt have. Didnt you read any of the requirements. You dont clear any!

Dont just skip all the text. Each group has specific requirements you need to qualify. Following the rules means you later get access to giveaways with higher chance of winning. So start reading from now onwards.

I'll advice you to spend 500rs on hosting some Giveaways. That will level you up and qualify you to get into some groups.

1 year ago*
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1 year ago
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No. Check when creating a giveaway. if one asterisk next to the name - it have reduced CV, if two - 0 CV. Reduced CV is enough for level 1, btw.

1 year ago
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Closed 1 year ago by Deleted-9742313.