Overall, you've been ?
been 2 year that the curve place me in unlucky :') At least it does show that some of us still have some hope left in them for continuing trying !
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i'm curious why this chart only goes back one year.
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This statistics make no sense. The more you enter, the less your " -4" means. Count by the percentage, it will make you sense.
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Imo, this statistics is calculated depending of each entries each giveaways you enter have :
For example, if you enter into 400 giveaways, and each giveaways have 100 entries, that mean you have a 1% chance of win for each giveaways, with a overall chance of winning 4 of these 400 giveaways.
So for example, if you win 2 giveaways, you will be set as unlucky with 2 fewer gifts, in reverse, if you win 5 giveaways, you will be set as lucky with 1 more gifts.
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Yes, that is the way it's calculated. But on its own, it's useless, because it needs to be compared to your actual wins.
If you won 0 games, and the statistics tell you you won 4 fewer than you should have, you have 0 put of 4 expected wins - 0/4, 0% of what you should havw. If you have 1, then you won 1 instead of 5 - 1/5, only 20% of your expected wins. If you won 96 instead of 100, you won 96% of your expected wins. All these are "-4" wins situations, but having fewer overall wins makes the same difference more pronunciated.
In some people's case them winning 10 fewer than expected can still mean they won 99% of their expected wins, while someone with a -2 and 30 wins are actually more unlucky.
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So, to leave on-topic answer and example:
I'm finally up to -2 wins (I usually had -4).
Compared to my 326 wins, I should have won 328. Which means I won 99.39% of my expected wins :)
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Overall Unlucky, 1 fewer.
I have a fairly uninteresting line, I guess it's because I don't really enter many giveaways apart from the ones I actually would play, which means that in my 6 years on this site (and about 4 or so active years of using it) I've entered just under 6000 giveaways.
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in terms of type of giveaway, It's not like I enter only giveaways with tousands of entries either. In the past month I've entered a total of 25 giveaways, with 9 of those having sub-400 entries. One of them had only 16. So I think my graph is mainly just like this due to the low volume of entries?
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"Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 4 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined."
That's odd, I thought I was lucky. It feels like I won more than I expected.
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Overall, you've been lucky, and won 24 more gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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Overall, you've been lucky, and won 1 more gift than estimated since you first joined.
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The poll is missing an option:
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 17 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined. xDDD
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Not the luckiest, but i guess i got some nice games. Mostly thanks to the unlucky7 group. Thanks for balancing some of my rotten luck. =D
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This wouldn't have happened if it wasn't for groups I think. My chance of winning a game over thousands of entries is quite small. My best result was going against 500-600 entries and I got picked as one of the few.
Most people with positive results have had better experiences being in a group.
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 12 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 40 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.
But I've been lucky past few months! 😁 I think I was at -50 gifts at some point.
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3 fewer games than expected :(
But if I look here, it could be worse though :)
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Pretty standard I'd imagine...
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Overall, you've been lucky, and won 10 more gifts than estimated since you first joined.
I don't believe in luck, tho we have that concept engraved inside that sometimes I still use it. I do believe in probabilities and long-term normalization towards the peak probabilities.
Said that, I've had unlucky months with -5 and -7, but I prefer 3 good wins than 10 average wins. And now that I'm every day entering less and less giveaways, only for games that I'm really interested for, I feel better. I'm entering about half the giveaways than before, and I hope to keep lowering that number. In the 3 years I've been in SG, 99% of days until past October the 1st I've spent all my points. Not anymore.
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how to show your luck
go to https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community -> Luck Per Month
screenshot it and past the link in a comment (modify it with your link):
why show your luck ?
it is just a good way to see if you're been lucky or unlucky during all you're years in steamgifts.
Or just add in the comment in you're been lucky or unlucky with the number of gifts (in my case : Unlucky / Won 9 fewer gifts than estimated)
Discussion greatly inspired by show me you're curves from icaio
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