Wasn't there once a line in the profile called "estimated wins" which did display the games you "should" have won compared with your entries?

10 years ago*

Comment has been collapsed.

Yes.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

But I want to know how much I did not win yet. This makes me sad.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Go this page and start calculating then :)

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

But... but...

598 pages...

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Indeed.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Yes, entering deleted giveaways now adds to your entry number, and I think estimated wins was gotten rid of to save bandwidth.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Deleted

This comment was deleted 3 years ago.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Considering it required a not-insignificant database trawl to retrieve the number of giveaways you'd entered, count the number of entrants in each, and do the math, I'd be willing to bet it was far more significant than that.

SteamGifts, so far as I know, doesn't make much money. We aren't talking high-end blade servers, here. We're talking Virtual Machines on a strict budget, or perhaps a real (likely low-end) server or farm. The database is growing quickly, too, with ~1k giveaways ending per day (IIRC). As the number of giveaways goes up, the time required to search even a well-indexed table of giveaways will increase. It must then join those to the table of entries.

In short, it likely takes the database a significant fraction of a second to calculate this each time the profile page is hit, just so we can bitch about having 3.99 estimated wins, and only winning 2 free games.

Source: I'm a web developer who works with databases and data-driven sites day-in, day-out.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

They should have just said it was a totally useless statistic that doesn't really make any sense.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

But it's not a useless statistic and it's basic probability.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

It really was a useless statistic, although it was nice to have the system to the math for us. It had no impact on our chance of winning, but it was fun to see how we fared compared to our odds.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

It was probably the least useless statistic we could have had. If you think that your probability to win is a useless statistic then I would start playing the lottery.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

It was a statistic with no use, hence its a useless statistic. Since each giveaway has an independent probability, our estimated wins didn't mean a thing. Sure, over a long enough period, it should balance out so our estimated wins and our actual wins are close, but there aren't nearly enough data points for most people to have that happen. There are plenty with far more wins than their estimate, and there are people who are lagging far behind their estimates.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

"There are plenty with far more wins than their estimate, and there are people who are lagging far behind their estimates."
It follows a normal distribution. Also, can you argue then CV is a useless statistic?

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I always assumed it was part of SteamGifts+. Guess not :P

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Same here. Cant even distinguish which features are vanilla SG and which are SG+.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I always liked having that stat. It let me know how much of a failure I am. I was already lagging behind my estimated wins when the stat went away, and considering I haven't won anything in almost two months, I'm sure it far far worse now. Its darkly amusing. :)

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

In the beginning Cg created Steamgifts and Steamtrades. Now Steamgifts was formless and empty, the forum was empty, and Cg was hovering over his keyboard.

And Cg said, “Let there be forum replies,” and there were replies. Cg saw that the replies were good, and he separated Steamgifts from Steamtrades. Cg called a feature “Replies,” and the other he called “Estimated Win.” And there were gifts, and there were users—the first day.

And Cg said, “Let there be a limit between the giveaways to separate beggars from givers.” So Cg made the contribution value and separated the beggars from the givers. And it was so. Cg called these giveaways “CV requirement.” And there were more users, and there were giveaways—the second day.

And Cg said, “Let the users create giveaways.” And it was so. Cg called some giveaways “Private,” and the group only giveaways he called “Group Giveaway.” And Cg saw that it was good.

But now Cg removed Estimated wins, he removed replies, and now I'm sad. :"(

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

+1

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Cg giveth and taketh away.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

It was probably removed to lower the amount of people crying about how much games they SHOULD have won by now.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Only to be replaced by people crying because they've entered 100-200 giveaways and not won yet. Estimated wins might've stopped some of those but either way people are going to cry. SG can't win.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Not "should have won", estimated wins was more like how many probability says you probably should have won. I have a feeling people were too upset not knowing that distinction that it had to be removed.

10 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Closed 10 years ago by Tolc.