"you won't see it on SG+ until the filter resets, which are done every few months."
Really? I'm not saying you're wrong but I've had SG+ since it was released and I've never noticed the filter re-setting and I've got quite a few things filtered.
Otherwise, yes those are useful tips especially this "If you don't like it—filter or blacklist the game." Only enter for a game you really want to play, entering for stuff you don't want is a waste and if you win you'll regret winning it rather than something you actually want.
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Agreed. The SG+ filters don't reset on a schedule. If you clear your cache a little too well, you can do it yourself, but it's not on a timer.
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I've been using SG+ for almost a year and the filter never resets for me. It probably only resets if you clear the browser cache.
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I've definitely had it reset on me... another reply to you says clearing the browser cache does it. I run CCleaner once in a while, so that might be doing it. I will try to remember to de-select the cache next time.
I strongly believe in not entering giveaways for games you don't want. I was talking to someone a few months ago and they said people enter giveaways for bad games just to see what they're like. And there are just so many people here. If I buy a game, I quickly run to my "My entries" page and remove any entries for that game. Gives everyone a slightly better chance. Just seems like the right thing to do. And if you look at my wins:entries ratio, you might agree any karma will help.
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1150 giveaways entered... 0 won. Whats about that? :\
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What about that?
Assume that all of them were 2000 entry giveaways. You haven't even gotten to the point where it's statistically likely you should have won once.
Checking your profile, you've done a little better than that, with an estimated 1.64 wins. That means you're probably due to win one, but that's not a guarantee. It just means you've entered enough of them that the math says you should likely have won one. It's entirely possible to keep going for another 1150 without winning....or you could win 3 times by then. It's all a matter of luck and volume of entries, yours vs everyone else's.
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So you can only get up to $30 CV by giving away bundle games, no matter how many?
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Yes.
Your first $25 worth, if bundled, are converted to "real" giveaways. The next $5 is bundle credit, but since $5 is 20% of $25, it gets added. Bundle credit is stored, but since bundle credit applied to your CV can only be 20% of your legit credit, bundle credit is sorta hidden.
Take me for instance. I have a TON of bundle credit. And I don't care—SOMEBODY likes bundle games! But every legit giveaway I do (and I have done a few, and will continue to do so) I get that legit game's CV, plus 20% of that game's CV gets taken out of my bundle CV and applied to the real CV.
Yeah, it's confusing. But them's the breaks!
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I still uses algebra on a daily basis, then again I'm a software developer.
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Technically false. But you're speaking of good karma, which I like to think works. I've given far more than I've gotten, and will continue to give. IDGAF about bundle vs. legit CV, I give to give. I may be an asshole at times, but I like to think the karma scales tip me towards good.
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As long as I appreciate your effort, if you're writing a guide, you should do a little of research first.
It's been done already, much better and complex than you just did: clicky.
You'll never see it again on the SG app, and you won't see it on SG+ until the filter resets, which are done every few months <- This statement is false. You can change your GA filters in SG+ any time you want. Go to Account -> SteamGifts Plus -> Giveaway Preferences and just delete filters you don't want to be applied anymore.
You ask people to make calculations for win chance, while using SG+ tells you exact % chance for each GA.
Most important - you focus ONLY on public GAs, while these allways have the lowest chances to win. Nowadays even 500$+ CV GAs easily gets 100+ entries. While easy puzzle GA with 0$ CV will get just few tens of entries. You didn't mention Puzzle GAs, Forum GAs, GA Groups, Events, Flash GAs and many others.
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Thanks for your input. My intent was mostly casual. The idea was kicking around in my head so I typed it all out.
I focused only on public giveaways because that's all I mess with. I've tried a couple puzzles and they're just too hard. For my efforts I'd just as soon do the public ones. My time is valuable. If I don't win, I don't really mind.
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Also giving away games wouldn't increase your odds, but sure you won't be considered as an asshole as well. Then you can hope in karma or whatever suits you best.
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I use SG+, filter out games I don't want, visit the site few times a day and no points get wasted (I'm never at 300 points). Strength in numbers. :) Don't expect to win and you'll be surprised when you do. Nearly 10k entries and 14 giveaways won, most of them public.
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Increase your odds of winning by comparing a giveaway to the lottery. You have more chances of winning a giveaway than the lottery. fact.
Also, random happens.
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About this: Method 2: Prioritize games with multiple copies. 2 copies means your chances double. If you see Fez, 2 copies, 100 entries, you have a 1 in 50 chance. If you see Fez, 1 copy, 100 entries, you have a 1 in 100 chance. If you only have enough points for one, enter the one with 2 copies.
You sure that is how it works? I was under impression, that if there are two games in one giveaway, the odds are same, only with one person less for second run. So it is 1:100, then one wins and then it is 1:99 chance for second winner. But I might be wrong.
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You're both correct, It does double your chances since you then have 2 chances to get it (not 1 in 50) but then since the 2nd time there would be 1 less person it would be 1 in 99, But thinking about it like this 2 in 100 since you get 2 chances naturally turns into 1 in 50 but you lose 1 person so it is 1 in 49 in that case.
So in short the chances of winning one of the giveaways together is 1 in 49.5
but separately it is 1 in 100 and 1 in 99 the 2nd time.
I hope I'm right or I'm gonna look stupid.
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I'm officially confused. His (?) statement makes sense, but I still think I'm right. Two games, 100 entrants. Two in 100 mathematically breaks down to 1 in 50, and the site agrees with me (if you see a giveaway with 99 entrants and 2 copies, and you enter, it will say your chance is 2%.
Even though technically once one is chosen, the other has 1 in 99, when it's weighted (is that right?) it amounts to each getting 1:50 odds. They are both chosen at the same time. The 1:99 thing works for a reroll...
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You're confusing the two (different) probabilities:
1) The probability of being one of the winners.
2) The probability of being the winner of one of the copies in particular (for example, if for some strange reason you want to know how likely it is you win the 3rd copy out of a 5 copy giveaway).
I'd say (1) is the only number you're interested in, and (2) is pretty useless.
For things like this, it's best to consider simple examples with small numbers. Think of a 3 copy giveaway with 2 entrants and your intuition will guide you in the right direction.
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Do not listen to this man. He is trying to trick you! My advice, instead:
Everyone has a set amount of "luck" which is used up when you enter giveaways. Therefore, enter as few giveaways as possible.
Additionally, karma means you earn luck by creating giveaways. Create as many giveaways as possible.
Tell everyone else to follow this excellent advice, too. The more people you can convince to follow the same advice I'm giving you now, the better your luck will be! Just make sure to follow it yourself, that's extremely vital.
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You got me. Everybody should listen to you.
But if you say nobody should listen to me and I say everybody should listen to you, who should they listen to?
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6 and 7.25 now. ;)
I like my odds. It gives me hope that I will win another game soon. I would be more worried if the estimated wins were lower.
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I've seen this question asked a few times over the last week. I am not a rich man, so most of my giveaways have been from bundles. But more valuable information I can readily share, and anyone can benefit.
Shoot more bullets, hit more notes... enter more giveaways. It really is that easy.
Consider, a game like Batman Origins or even Skyrim (2 years old) gets over 3,000 entries, easily. It costs you a lot of points and your chance of winning is astronomically low.
Most indie games are 15 points max.
It's all subjective, but I think a lot of indie games are better than pro games. Just my opinion. I love the Bethesda games, Deus Ex (all of them), Just Cause 2... I dunno, some others. But Brothers really moved me. Fez impressed the hell out of me, and so did Thomas Was Alone. The Stanley Parable was genius.
By entering more indie giveaways and fewer pro game giveaways, you enter more giveaways; thus, your chances of winning increase slightly.
You can do a little better, though. Get Steamgifts+, or SG+. If you have a smartphone, go to Google Play and get the app there. I don't know if other kinds of phones have a SG app.
The SG app for Android and SG+ can both hide 'red' games (giveaways where your CV isn't high enough to enter) so those are out of your way. Both also allow you to hide games you just don't want. Hide all the pro games, or don't, it's up to you. Look at every game that is 10 points or less. Go to the Steam page and really look at it. If you don't like it—filter or blacklist the game.
You'll never see it again on the SG app, and you won't see it on SG+ until the filter resets, which are done every few months. (You can export your filter every so often to try to stave these off, by importing the backup when the reset comes. I don't know of any way to simply opt out of them.)
If you know you've reviewed a game before, and it's not hidden—go ahead and enter it.
And yet, you can increase your odds still more by using math.
Method 1: Prioritize games based on CV barrier. Games with a higher CV barrier are less likely to be entered by as many people as games with a lower barrier, or none. If the barrier is $30.00 or less, anyone can enter who has merely given away bundle games. If it's $30.01 or more, you have to have given away non-bundle games (i.e. explicitly spent money on SG). This magical number ($30.01) means a lot less people will enter.
Method 2: Prioritize games with multiple copies. 2 copies means your chances double. If you see Fez, 2 copies, 100 entries, you have a 1 in 50 chance. If you see Fez, 1 copy, 100 entries, you have a 1 in 100 chance. If you only have enough points for one, enter the one with 2 copies.
Method 3: Prioritize games with high win chances. SG will tell you this, but note that it's subject to change as more people enter. Sure, you might have a 3% chance if the giveaway was just created, but it could be a 0.003 chance when the giveaway is done. So you can't rely on this.
Method 4: Prioritize games people don't want. This is tricky, because I don't know of any game that can't get 300 entries if it's public, runs for at least 12 hours, and has no CV barrier. Even if it's Bad Rats (poorly reviewed game) or Fortix ($1 game). But you will see games that can't get less than 1,000 entries. Consider avoiding them.
Using a combination of all the above, you can raise your chances ever so slightly.
A lot of you probably knew this, but I was bored and wanted to help out a few people. Peace out, and good luck all. (No giveaway here. I don't know how to hide them anyway.)
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