Astronomical chances

Does anyone actually ever win a non-CV requirement, non-DLC, public giveaway? I mean, I realise SOMEBODY wins every time, but it is so hard to wrap my head around it...is it bots or something? Do you even attempt to enter a giveaway for a game which shows something like 0.01% chance, if it is a game you really want? What if it requires something like 50 points? I'm thinking about filtering everything below 0.1%. Is that a wise course of action? What's the magic number, you think?