Based off of the giveaways I've entered, (To give you guys an idea of the kind of giveaways I enter: avg 1679 entries over 428 giveaways [Mostly public, only very recently contributor, a few group])

1-(product(g1 g2 g3 * ....)^x) where g is each giveaway chance to lose and x = theoretical times won

Odds are 56% that I won 1 item, which I haven't :(

31% for 2

18% for 3

9.8% for 4

and 5.5% for 5 games.

Cool story, I know.

11 years ago*

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there is also a chance, that you will never win anything ;)

11 years ago
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Only if he ever stops entering.

11 years ago
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Yes. Yes there is.

11 years ago
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I got ~22.51% odds of you having won anything with 1:1679 odds over 428 giveaways.

1-(n^x) where n = odds of you not winning a giveaway (1678/1679) and x = number of attempts.

11 years ago
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If you take the average. But not every giveaway is 1679 entries. I've entered a couple giveaways where there are sub 10 or 50 entries.

1-(product(g1 g2 g3 * ....)^x) where g is each giveaway chance to lose and x = theoretical times won

11 years ago
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I believe you were the one that said "avg 1679 entries".

11 years ago
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That was to give you guys an idea of what kind of giveaways I entered. Guess its kind of confusing, sorry.

11 years ago
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Dropping this here.

11 years ago
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Damn I can't get this to open on OOcalc. Taking forever.

11 years ago
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Damn if you made this, I'm proud of ya. Tons of work put into this.

11 years ago
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Haha. I did, but it wasn't all that. I'm pretty sure it only took about half an hour :D

Like you, I was just procrastinating during a quiet afternoon :)

11 years ago
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So you're basically a masochist? You like to "strip the flesh, salt the wound!" ?

Why cloud your mind with useless statistics? You got 50% chance on every entry: you win or you don't. :D

11 years ago
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That's not exactly true... Haha.

11 years ago
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ROFL, It's called procrastination before Finals XP

11 years ago
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now calculate the chance of you finding a gf :/

11 years ago
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Pretty good, cause I already have one :)

11 years ago
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touché, good sir.

11 years ago
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Deleted

This comment was deleted 5 years ago.

11 years ago
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EDIT:^^^ my point exactly

Jokes about nerds not getting "gf"s (as you call them) are getting weak because of all the nerd-celebrities out there that are either married or close.

Just my opinion. Weak insult.

11 years ago
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Oh relax, he was just trying to be funny. No harm.

11 years ago
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The probability to win nothing is (let's call it NOTHING)

NOTHING := g1 * g2 * g3 * ...

The probability to win at least one item is

1 - NOTHING

The probability to win exactly one item is quite ugly already

ONETHING := sum ((1/g_i - 1) * NOTHING; i = 1, 2, 3, ...)

The probability to win at least two items is

1 - NOTHING - ONETHING

and the probability to win exactly two items is

sum ((1/g_i - 1) * (1/g_j - 1) * NOTHING; i = 1, 2, 3, ...; j = i+1, i+2, i+3, ...)

and so on...

TL;DR: Your formula is not correct

11 years ago
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What is g_i?

11 years ago
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gi and gj are going to be the same thing, since this is a fixed set of data, and not infinite. What happens when i is giveaway 400 of 400? J has to be giveaway 1, which makes these values the same.

11 years ago
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Closed 11 years ago by lunaticwolf.