Guess what, it's been asked before. About two hundred times a month. Not even exaggerating.
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It's good to cry. It cleans our eyes..and our souls.This people are doing this threads 'cause they love us.
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No they do them because they are too lazy to use the search function and look at old threads.
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You said it yourself. "Old threads". No one wants to use an old thread, just like most men don't want to do an old woman, just because she was once hot (50 years ago).
Jokes aside, old threads means last posts on last page, and 90% of people only look at the very first page.
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Random is random. Therefore, its random. Don't over think random because random happens.
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If you enter a giveaway that has N total entries, you have a 1/N chance. You'd need to enter an average of N such giveaways to win once. Public giveaways tends to have around 500-2,000 entries (it really varies a lot by how many points it costs, how popular the game is, and how long it's open), so you'd need to enter an average of 500-2,000 of them.
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Luckily adeyke didn't say anything about certainty of winning. His interpretation is mere the most probable outcome of said example situation above.
If you do the math for the particular example, winning exactly 1 giveaway is the most probable outcome, even more probable than not winning at all. Winning 2 or more is naturally very unlikely.
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Well 100 is a not a big enough number to prove statistical probability. If you multiply both numbers, entries and outcome, you'll get 10 wins in every 1000 entries. And guess what, the first win doesn't have to be in the first 100 entries. You see, statistics is a bitch.
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WTF?
EIDT: Ok, I still don't see your point. I was talking about that N & 1/N example. You did a crazy "generalization" of my argument that's completely invalid and try do disprove my point by this? LOL
Clarification: 1000 giveaways with 1/100 chance each. Winning exactly 1 giveaway is still the most probable outcome. Winning nothing is slightly less probable. etc.
Multiplying all the numbers by 10 doesn't always work. A "simple proportion" (or "rule of three", dunno what's it commonly called in english) can't solve any problem. You see, math is a bitch.
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I'm well aware of that fallacy, but I wasn't committing it. I'm certainly not saying that you need exactly N giveaways in order to win (i.e. that if you've entered N-1 times, the Nth one will definitely). You could win on the first, the 100th, or the 100,000th, and there's the same 1/N chance of winning each time you enter (assuming, for simplicitly, that all giveaways have the same number of total entries).
However, it's still possible to use probability to determine how likely you are to win when entering a certain number of giveaways and it's possible to calculate the average expected number of giveaways per win. The probability of winning on exactly the Xth giveaway entered (and not before) is P(X) = ((1-1/N)^(X-1))(1/N) (i.e. the probability of losing X-1 times and then winning once). If we take the sum from X = 0 to infinity of P(X)*X, that will give us the average expected number of giveaways per win. That, unsurprisingly, turns out to be N.
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781 entries and 13 wins but all group/private giveaways, no public wins.
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As of now 207 entries and 2 won, but a) the wins were in the first 50 entries and b) I never received my second giveaway because I've been scammed. Now I always look at the profiles of gifters.
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Ask this guy. Mentioning Xarabas in this type of threads is as original as these threads itself are, but don't throw stones at me.
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Sorry if this has been asked before. But I've looked around on profiles and reviews of SteamGifts and it basically shows that people often win every 130-200'th entry. But I have seen some people with like 500-600 and only 1 win.
So please, tell me how often you win / after how many entries you win and tell me it here so I can kind of get the average of entries before you win.
I know that the system randomly chooses someone from the entry list and shieet, but still.
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