Entry Win Ratio
Nice it may come out as a great survey. Thanks for all answers beforehand
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12 wins out of 1052 entries, or 87/1, or 1.14% (last win is still pending)
But I mostly enter forum / group / whitelist giveaways, and only for games I'm interested in.
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Entered: 26,750
Won: 297
Ratio: 1 win per 90 entries
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Around 1/366 right now. Considering it started at around 1/1500, it is not that bad. :3
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Entered: 12178
Won: 368
I win one out of 33 entries on average.
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0 won, 4 entered. I may be too lazy for this website.
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50 wins from 8195 entries (around 1:160). With entries from last months though my winning odds are around 1:10,000, so I expect my wins-to-entries ratio to gradually drop.
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It was 1:376 or something without the group wins that have a 1:10-1:20 chances. Otherwise it was 1:276 exactly.
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Your average win rate per entry is pretty meaningless as a number - if you've won 1/100 GAs but they all had 10 entries, you'd be very unlucky, whereas a win ratio of 1/10,000 would be quite lucky if all the GAs had 100,000 entries.
I wrote a userscript that analyses your entries and wins vs. your expected wins (if you enter a GA with 1/10 entries, you expect to win 0.1 games) - which cg later implemented (mostly) as a feature on the stats page - although cg called it "probability", which strictly speaking it isn't (since you can't have a probability >100% of winning a game, yet if you entered 3 GAs with 2 entries each, the graph would say you have 150% chance of winning - but its entirely possible you might not win anything at all).
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if you entered 3 GAs with 2 entries each, his graph would say you have 150% chance of winning
Really? That sure seems like a bug.
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As far as I can tell (based on a little experimentation), what that graph shows is the sum of the probabilities of winning all the GAs you've entered that finish on that day. But probability doesn't work like that - you can't just add together probabilities like that as they are independent events - hence why the probability can exceed 100%.
The graph could instead show an average (which of course would say 50% in my example), but I don't imagine it would express what cg wants it to (because then entering any GA with more than 2 entries would cause the graph to go down - which would be un-intuitive, since entering any GA will clearly increase your chances/expectation of winning something).
It's simply a matter of terminology - what the graph is showing is actually the expectation of winning (multiplied by 100 to make it look like a probability). I imagine cg called it probability because most people aren't statistics pedants and don't recognise "expectation" as a mathematical concept ;)
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Well, presumably it at least caps the number at 100?
I'm just wondering if there will be / has been a support ticket saying, "my probability was 100, but I didn't win!"
I think I remember your script (I used it, then it was somewhat usurped by cg's. Bummer.).
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It is about how many giveaways you entered and how many you ve won up till now. Im currently standing at nearly 4000 entries, 15 wins and 130 giveaways. I really wonder how is average winning rates
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