I came across a user recently that (after taking entries / won) wins 1 out of every 45 entries... They win at least one game a week, and most are not low entry giveaways, but have hundreds or thousands of entries. This does not seem statistically plausible to me - am I wrong thinking this? It seems fishy...

5 years ago

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It's cg's alt account, that's why. Forget you found it, I heard people tend to disappear once they know the truth.

Jokes aside, no, that user didn't cheat the math, he just got lucky, but without more details such as entries to wins ratio I'm not able to tell you more (and I'd like that in form of screenshot of the profile, not text).

5 years ago
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5 years ago
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5 years ago
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Yeah nobody should have an unnatural ratio like that when real people need at least 78 entries to win 1.

5 years ago
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His last 25 won games were within 2 months

Some more fun math... if he's been active for 5 years (assuming exactly 5 years ago), then he's won an average of more than 6 games a week since becoming a member.

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5 years ago*
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there's no need to post screenshot,

1/45? just lucky, there's nothing fishy.
U should stop caring about others wins xD

5 years ago
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Eh, I just obliged someone that asked to see it =) ...I'm genuinely just wondering if this is something that happens a lot / through legit means

5 years ago
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as u can see in some no-joke comments - that's absolutely fine to have 1/45 ratio xD

5 years ago
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There might be several reasons for this, one being that the user is very active. Almost 80000 joined GAs...
Can also be small WL/Group GA's, chances to win are often higher there.

5 years ago
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If you enter group and whitelist only giveaways you have a huge chance of having a high win ratio.

5 years ago
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thanks for not showing the user. +1

5 years ago
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Maybe he's a member of some steam groups?

5 years ago
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It's not that fishy at all considering luck in general. I stumbled across a few peeps who are unbelievably lucky and continue to be so.
Sometimes luck is a real bitch and engages with nearly everyone and sometimes luck is almost loyal to some.
I'm not here to judge or question anybody's luck, but I wonder myself why certain peeps are obviously favored by fortune. No one knows for sure!

5 years ago
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shrugs the numbers don't mean much tbh. quality, juggling which entries offer the best chances, whatnot. it's not worth worrying about.

5 years ago
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He's lvl9, at that level, there's a lot of giveway with very few people able to enter. My awesome ratio is 1/982

5 years ago
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Hah, you lucky man! Mine is 1:1636 :P

5 years ago
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I like fishy foods but they make your burps kinda nasty later.

5 years ago
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I love the sushi burps

5 years ago
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1/45 is a sign of something fishy going on? lol, my ratio is 1/30 ;p and it's still far from few top dogs ;p there's nothing fishy about it, he just enters GAs with higher win chance than ones you enter, puff, mystery solved ^^

5 years ago
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That's something an even fishier person would say!

5 years ago
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look at my profile :) i won nothing in 4 years

5 years ago
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Sooo. With the odd math proposed here, I should have won more than 205 within the 43.608 in the 5 years I have been here?

Or that Zelghadis should have won FAR less or more?

Most bizarre.

5 years ago
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with the "odd" math proposed here, you've won 1 every 212 entries, and have won an average of .78 games a week (assuming it was exactly 5 years ago you joined)

5 years ago
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You'll have to forgive me. Math was NEVER my strongest point. In fact, I failed remedial math in college TWICE, WITH a tutor. And I'm proud of that. :P

5 years ago
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So his won-percentage is 2.2%.
Mine is 2.0%, not a big difference.

So I'm a fishy fishy fishhhhhhhhhhhh..... ;-)

5 years ago
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Yeah, like I said - I wasn't sure if it was normal; it seems now from the responses that it is =)

5 years ago
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At least you asked the community, and did so without any unnecessary accusations or rule breaking outings. This is a good day!

5 years ago
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it's normal for expert-level leeching users. 👍

5 years ago
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1)group giveaways (to get into better groups you may actually have to giveaway something good)
2)level 1+ giveaways (higher level the better)
3)whitelist giveaways (you'll need to be social)
4)forum giveaways

5 years ago*
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Users that get regular wins with low entry requirements tend to be part of specialized, low-member, high-involvement groups (wherein regular giveaway creation is requireed). Even with groups that have low requirements for entry it's fairly common to see 10-60 entry giveaways, and SGT forum giveaways tend to be comparable in entry count, or lower on average if a puzzle is involved. If you aim for harder puzzles or less-desirable giveaways, you may even end up bumping into giveaways that have trouble getting 5 entries (a circumstance also common to "win-swapping" groups).

While it does have some iffyness in mindset potentially associated with it, it's not inherently a sign of "fishy" behavior. Moreover, there are some users who only choose to enter for highly wishlisted, unbundled, rarely gifted content; That is to say, content which is typically seen most in low-entry whitelist, group, or special event giveaways (well, or level 0 public or promotional group giveaways, but noone expects to win those anyway).

If you think there's something suspicious, you can certainly direct staff towards it through a support ticket- they have a lot more tools available than we do, for determining such things. However, you're not typically going to be able to determine unusual conduct off of surface stats alone, given how everyone approaches the site differently.

(Also, you can reply to people by using the Reply link underneath a post, and you can close a thread by clicking the green Open in the top right corner. I only mention those since I saw you miss the reply to Archie at the top. ^.^)

5 years ago*
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Can't deny the possibility ... A few gamers do fishy things to be a winner in games, why won't they do it to be the winner of games?

5 years ago
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As others, have stated get into groups or whitelist and joining forum giveaways which usually have lower number of entries which allow your win chance to go up considerably. If you only join public giveaways even with level requirements, your chances of winning is pretty low in comparison.

5 years ago*
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Have a nice weekend, stevey! :-)

5 years ago
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hey igel you too :-)

5 years ago
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I've won one in every 4.2 giveaways I've entered.

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