What was your estimated wins when you got your first? Mine is past due already :@

I actually does not understand it I have entered way more than the Op but my EW is lower. I must be due one soon too but it comes when it comes I put no stock in the EW as I does not understand the number or purpose.

11 years ago

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Khalaq

(Senior Moderator)

The EW is calculated based upon the number of entries in the giveaways you enter. So, if you entre a few giveaways with a 1 in 5 chance of winning, your EW will be higher than if you entered 100 giveaways where chances to win were 1 in 10,000.

11 years ago

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DeltaBladeX

(Senior Moderator)

Estimated wins is based on people entered in each giveaway. If two people are entered, your EW goes up 0.5 (50%) at the end. If 10 people, 0.1 (10%). And so on for other numbers.

11 years ago

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SirEyeball

That is all fine but what should I use the number for? it serves no purpose other than to frustrate am I right?

11 years ago

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DeltaBladeX

(Senior Moderator)

Nope, it serves as an estimate to show how lucky you are. Nothing useful in the scheme of things, but some people like knowing their estimate to compare to their wins.

11 years ago

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adamofgreyskull

History lesson:

Before it was added, instead of people complaining incessantly that they had fewer wins than their "Estimated Wins", they complained incessantly that they "NEVER won" and that they'd entered 100s of giveaways without winning. They clearly didn't understand probability or statistics and thought that they should be winning more often. Now, a lot of those people can look at that number and compare it to their actual wins. If their actual wins are higher, they normally don't whinge, unfortunately, if the estimated wins are higher, they still whinge. Overall whinging seems to have decreased though.

tl;dr Stupid people who don't understand probability have a single number that sometimes backs up their whinging but also sometimes refutes their whinging.

11 years ago

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SirEyeball

This makes perfect sense thanks
Edit So I am allowed to whinge now (Not that I will)

11 years ago

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TehGuitarGod

I would reckon far below 1, as I won my first game at my 30th entry.

11 years ago

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DrSpychology

Estimated wins wasn't a thing when I first got on here. But right now, my last win was at 12.33, so I'm also past due

11 years ago

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Memoscorp

Zero. Won on my first entry.

11 years ago

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Khalaq

(Senior Moderator)

There are plenty of people who have a considerably higher EW count than their actual wins. There's an entire Steam group devoted to such people, in fact, "The Statistically Unlucky."

As for me, I'm one of those who has yet to win. I'm trying to break the record for "unluckiest person on SG," but the record is 3500 entries with 5+ EW before a first win. I have a long way to go....

11 years ago

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MoJoeJoeJoe

Looking at your EW makes me sad :(

11 years ago

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bigzgod

It sucks but it's actually fairly common not to get your first win until much later, especially if you're only entering into giveaways for games that you actually want to play (like I do). I didn't get my first win until I just hit the 1K entry mark, give or take a few, so you really shouldn't be that surprised when your EW goes way higher than your actual wins.

11 years ago

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ladynadiad

Also depends on what you want to play. If you are wanting stuff that shows up in a bundle, it's going to be easier to win than if you want only AAA games that just came out. There's definitely a lot bigger chance of winning something like Crayon Physics than there is of winning the new Tomb Raider game.

What really sucks is when what you want either a) almost never goes on sale or b) was in some bundle over a year ago and thus most bundle keys were given away and people won't buy it to give away now because of that.

11 years ago

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adamofgreyskull

Let me make you happy then! Here's mine
Estimated wins: 22.18
Actual wins: 23

11 years ago

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BronzePage

Probably around 0.6 or something

11 years ago

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sincerecorn

i got my first win around 80 entries

11 years ago

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Thyshaw

Don't worry man, you'll get your time soon. Some are luckier than others and win more often or faster, but eventually everyone will get there :)

If it's of any consolation I'm running a dry spell also :P

11 years ago

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Alteria

I have no idea.

11 years ago

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nath2000wild

Such a quality disscusion going on here.....

11 years ago

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Sisyphus

I'm closing in on 1k and my EW is just over 2.0, but its hard to be upset by my failure to win free stuff that people are kind enough to give away. I'll just think of it as a nice bonus, should I ever win.

11 years ago

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lucidus

One guy won Bioshock Infinite on his very first entry. Feel better?

11 years ago

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Enclear

lol so cruel

11 years ago

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MoJoeJoeJoe

fak u dolan

11 years ago

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Zephyrv

About 0.16, it was a 3 gift giveaway, but I got really lucky :3

11 years ago

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ladynadiad

Estimated wins didn't exist back then. I think I had around 4 wins by the time that was added.

11 years ago

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neocow

Estimated wins didn't exist back then.

11 years ago

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EliteWarriorII

11 years ago

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Enclear

I think my first win was at around 250-300 entries. Estimated wins didn't show up until afterwards. My estimated is usually 1-2 more than actual. Right now it's at around 2.5 over actual.

11 years ago

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badaboom

1.33, ~700 entries til my win but it was a good game I won

11 years ago

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MoJoeJoeJoe

Your profile says you have no gifts won, just a glitch or..?

11 years ago

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