Estimated Wins

It still goes up with giveaways with lots of entries, just not as much as ones with lower entries. Simply entering a giveaway will increase the number

11 years ago

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insane7

Enter less giveaways, won more. :D

11 years ago

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SuperFluffyKitty

Why would you want to inflate your estimated wins?

11 years ago

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IgotElbows

Give him "better chance" to win. lol

11 years ago

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Mindestens

I can bet he's cRPG player, he just likes when stats are raising.

11 years ago

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sardanapal

I'm guessing you're not who the penis enlargement ads are targeted at. Cos that's a valid question right there. I have no idea if breast implant ads sound as ludicrous to the fair sex, but it would be a decent approximation.

11 years ago

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nath2000wild

V__V

Why??

11 years ago

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SteveLynx

Go talk to the local fortuneteller and enter only the giveaway he/she tells you to join.

11 years ago

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EmeraldKithkin

It's just a statistic, mind you. Estimated wins have no actual bearing on whether or not you win anything.

11 years ago

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Monukai

Every time you enter a giveaway it goes up, regardless of whether you win or not. Giveaways with fewer entries will boost it more than giveaways with lots of entries, but they'll both increase the number, however small it may be. It's worth mentioning that it doesn't effect your chances of winning.

11 years ago

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Toboty

Actually, joining a lot of AAA giveaways with thousands of entries lowers your estimated wins by dragging down the average.

11 years ago

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sardanapal

Ehm, not really. You never get a negative chance at winning. Simply, as Monu says, your estimated wins don't increase as much. Of course it's pure speculation if we don't see the actual algorithm, but it'd be very counterintuitive otherwise.

11 years ago

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EmeraldKithkin

My estimation has dropped since the feature was launched. The average changes each time you enter a giveaway, and it is indeed true that the bigger the giveaway the lower your overall average.

11 years ago

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Toboty

Basically, this.

The effect that entering a giveaway has is relative to your preexisting estimated wins. Obviously a person with 0 entries will raise their estimated wins whether they enter a big or small giveaway, whereas a person who has spent most of their time on SG entering giveaways with very few entries has a high estimated win and would have that estimation lowered by entering a giveaway with 5k entries or whatever.

edit: When the feature was revealed I had 6.01 estimated wins and now I have 5.51.

11 years ago

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(Administrator)

The number lowered yesterday because it was modified to only take into account closed giveaways. Estimated wins is the sum of all your entered giveaways using the following formula...

SUM(1/MAX(1,(Gift.Entries/Gift.Copies)))

11 years ago

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DeltaBladeX

(Senior Moderator)

Well curse that. I had 13.37 for a while.

11 years ago

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zealousdt

That explains it. I was confused as to how that could happen. Thanks.

11 years ago

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sardanapal

Great of you to post this, I've had my own "Estimated wins" thing going, and I was wondering on the small fluctuation since this went live on the site. Now it makes perfect sense. Keep up the good work cg!

11 years ago

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Thexder

But it should be SUM(MIN(1,Gift.Copies/Gift.Entries)) instead!!!

Oh.... nevermind. ;)

11 years ago

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CoolieMcAwesome

There are so many things wrong with what you just said...

So many things...

11 years ago

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Toboty

I love you too. <3

11 years ago

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CoolieMcAwesome

You lost me at the "a giveaway with a large amount of entries has a negative chance of winning" part. That really confused me.

11 years ago

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Toboty

At the time we didn't know what the equation behind the variable of estimated wins actually was, all I was saying is that it could have been some sort of average.

But whatever, mystery solved. I'm stupid, you're smart. Congratulations.

11 years ago

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CoolieMcAwesome

Do I get an award? :D

11 years ago

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SvTusky

I enter giveaway with less wins and right win to loss ratio is 1:215, and I think that's above average for someone who only enters public giveaways.

11 years ago

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BlackB1le

If Gifts Won > Estimated Wins then You are lucky guy;
If Gifts Won < Estimated Wins then You are not lucky guy
=)

11 years ago

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Maxximo

i gonna take notes, good point

11 years ago

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Korrd

It will not surprise me when people start competing to have the highest estimated wins.

11 years ago

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nevyn

It's probably easier to just compete to have the most entries.

11 years ago

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slugshead

Enter giveaways ¬_¬

11 years ago

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Marumisu

Enter giveaways with better chances to win, that is giveaways with lower amount of entries.

11 years ago

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Flanlord

Enter for giveaways. Estimated wins is a flat probability function that works as a fairly basic addition function. The fewer entries the giveaway has, the more it will increase your estimated wins.

When a giveaway ends, divide 1 by the number of entries. That value will be added to your estimated wins.
(So 20 entries = +0.05 whereas 1000 entries = +0.001)

11 years ago

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Solnaga

Enter a giveaway, let it close, profit but not really.

11 years ago

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ThisIsDan

Why did you translated "thanks" to 4 other languages? Weird מוזר странный konstig عجيب

11 years ago

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