i just realised theres 2 of u... i used to think ur pic changes it's face positions...
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Don't worry, I have a wide range of weeb emotes to spam :3
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mike wins! look at all those emotes arranged on his profile, its too gud windu, step it up!
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Second, that yes, level 0 is the most "infested" with rule-breakers.
Aren't level 0 is like over 50% of all SG users? I'm asking because now I wonder if it's most "infested" with rule-breakers %-wise (so, you know, if there's 5 rule-breakers among 100 0-levelers and 1 rule breaker among 10 10-levelers, then it means there's 5% of rule breakers with level 0 and 10% of rule breakers with level 10).
Thanks for data.
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Level 0 is about 85% of the user base.
source: https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/community/users
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More than half in total, but it also has the biggest chunk of inactive users.
As for percentages, it is tricky. In my experience, at least 15% of the level 0 users have broken the "must activate on own account" rule alone at one point or another. I assume the number goes lower as levels get higher, but on high levels, whole new problems can arise.
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Out of curiosity, what 'new problems' are you talking about?
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There are a million registered users, and even if half of them is inactive, that is still the overwhelming majority of them not entering these giveaways. But statistically, the amount that did is enough to be representative, despite focusing on one single game genre.
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thats the reason why I personally care more bout the "hide" possibility xD
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Hi, I guess that re-rolls for Time Mysteries Collection on high levels were caused by already owned games (happens a lot for collection, DLCs, etc.), or were there real rule breakers?
Also regarding level 9 re-roll of Enigmatis 2: The Mists of Ravenwood: I'm curious about reason too. :D
Just for some statistics about what rules high level users usually break. ;-)
Update: checked level 9 and 10 giveaways for Time Mysteries Collection - previous winners own 2-3 games from pack.
Update2: who wants to see re-roll train for already own reason (and haven't seen it yet) - check comments here. :D
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Also worth noting:
As one might expect, the amount of interest decreases notably as you go up the levels if the game has already been bundled frequently [eg, Time Mysteries, Enigmatis]. This has high level entries go down to below a third their investment in the less common games, while low level entries never drop below half that of more high-interest games.
Rephrased, this means that you'll always have steady interest in games at lower levels, but as you move up, the chances of users already having the games increases [be that due to a higher investment in gaming, more familiarity with the site, better access to groups, or a stronger bundle-buying compulsion].
For example, in my case it's pretty rare for me not to have a HOG- most trade fairly low, so even now that I've stopped buying HOG bundles or entering for HOG giveaways, the ones that're more interesting to me are still easy to acquire.
Back when I started on the site, my interest in the HOGs I was missing was much higher- I had far fewer to work with, so they were of much higher interest, and I was far less invested in bundle purchasing. Likewise, as a new user, your palate for games hasn't quite been cultivated yet, so you tend to enter a bit more freely (with a 'that looks good' mentality) than many of us seem to do later on (with an 'Okay, which games do I totally want most, and damn the entry count'). Of course, many new users primarily also invest in high entry count AAA games, but there aren't typically enough of those up to make more than a dent in their available entry points.
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Yes, I expected mostly the same going in; frankly, I was ready to have no legit winners on three of the games over level 8. And Time Mysteries just barely managed it, with 3 people in total over lvl8 who could actually get it from me.
I am more surprised at Princess Isabella 3, to be honest. Level 7+ produced 1.5 to 3× entries than I assumed.
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Which one were you interested in? Cause I still got spare copies of some of them, if you want :>
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Oh, you're so nice :D
But I will pass, I want to win them all (like with catching Pokemons, : D). I hadn't even activate single key from HOG bundle I didn't have when I was buying stuff for GAs. I want to make celebration topic bc of that. And it makes me so much happier after winning new HOG from AM that way, I feel like I'm reaching my goal "will make celebration thread" :D
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Fair play, I know exactly what you mean! I had the same thing with the Portal of Evil HOG. After more than 400 entries for this game I just had to win it on sg, even though someone else tried to just give me a key.
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Very interesting. I was hoping you'd share the results, thanks for that!
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Some were double wins, the rest them not even knowing what they have and entering for a pack they mostly or completely owned. Had the same problem on a recent similar pack for Nightmares from the Deep, where I really lucked out, as the lvl7 giveaway had over 30% ineligible wins the last time I checked (people owning at least 2 of the 3 games, despite the warning in the description to not enter if they do)—yet I managed to get only one ineligible winner for 3×3 packs.
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Interesting numbers, thanks for sharing!
The number of rerolls in high levels is a bit surprising. I'll adopt the same approach and will post it in a somewhat similar experiment I'm doing with giveaways for The Beginner's Guide. I usually just check for unactivated and multiple wins, and it's clear that at least 2 of the 5 GAs won't have winners with those, but I guess I should also check if the winner already owns the game.
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Ownership is only problematic when you are not dealing with a base game but some expanded version from a Steam subID store, or even worse, a package. There are a few packages where owning all items from it reports it as owned, but those are way too rare.
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can i have one request?
can you add to the graph the users on SG by level? it would be interesting to see how that behaves accordingly ;)
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That is public information: https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/community/users (last graph).
Level 0 has probably the most amounts of inactive users, so there the column is most likely the lowest compared to the one shown.
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i know where to find it ;)
i meant if you can attach it to your graph, easier to see the trends
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Oh, that.
Yes, I had it there, but since level 0 entries top out at the 2000s, and the user base is over 1000000, even logarithmic scale shrunk the entries down to pixels. I tried to divide the user numbers by 10000, then 1000, but then the level 3+ part looked like a speck.
I also tried line charts, each line being a game through the levels, superimposed the user base line on it, but level 7+ became unreadable on a 1920×900 picture, because the lines were so on top of each other. Logarithmic scale helped there, but that pretty much showed what the posted picture already says.
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The reason why isabella got more entry because it's been bundle way fewer times then the other ones.
Still good data.
How long was the GA anyways? data taken for giveaway that last 3 days?
I wonder how the entry will be like if it's a general game that no one have yet when GA only last 1 hour.
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From 0 to 10? Above 8 would be really shaky to get any entries. My level 0 flash drops have around 1/2 to 1/5 of entries the usual 3-day level 0 weekly bundle games receive.
I could have tested it out with the Sakura games I had, but now my stock is under 10 for them.
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Is that mean, median or mode? tongue-in-cheek smart-ass question aside ...
Quite impressive research!
I think the impressive thing is the statistical reliability of the number of giveaways and the outcome of the research numbers. I do not think anyone has done a project like this to date.
While, I personally did not participate in your 'research', because I am not interested in HOGs. I would think that the statistical validity is not something to be worried about too much. I am, although, curious as to what the outcome would be with a different 'type' of game would be given this research format.
I was going to add you to my whitelist because of the extensive amount of work you have done - but I am changing my whitelist to include people whom I have won games from. Seeing as you have currently giveaway about 4k games, chances are, that I have won a game from you and you will be on my whitelist because of that too.
I am quite interested in seeing more of your research and learning of it's conclusions.
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Since people in the affected giveaways were asking for it, here is some data. :)
I did a little experiment: I created giveaways from level 0 to 10 of the same game to see how will they fare as we progressively go up. I chose a bunch of Artifex Mundi hidden object games as subjects, because a) I have a ton of keys for them and b) HOGs are one of the most popular and most accessible casual genres with a pretty wide player base, and games published by Artifex Mundi practically never go below decent quality (but many of them are regarded to be among the best of the genre). So, it was something that attracted probably the widest audience, but cheap enough to avoid the really large armies of auto-entry scripts and bots.
Now, the data:
Numbers in parenthesis mean number of rerolls.
Below the post, you can also see a graph. It details the amount of entries for each game based on levels, on a logarithmic scale.
What can be learnt?
Also, a few more graphs added, thanks to TinyPurple. ♥
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