Try ESGST. It's a script that shows you the probability of each giveaway before and or after you enter it.
It's been very useful to me so far. I don't regret using it.
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you mean this - https://github.com/revilheart/ESGST - Thanks for the hint :)
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Yes, there's also a thread on sg that you can talk to the creator about bugs etc.
Good luck!
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If I enter 50 giveaways (with 1 copy each) with 50 entries each - what are my chances of winning?
winning what?
if you want the chance for winning 1 or more, you look at the chance of loosing all which would be (49/50)^50=0.36416968
you then subtract that from 1 to get 0.63583031991, meaning 63,6% chance of winning at least 1
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I've never really paid much attention to my Steam level. What advantage does leveling up give one in Steam?
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Mostly it's for more profile customization and better chances of getting booster packs, but some traders also use it to deem whether a person is trustworthy or not I guess.
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All giveaways are independent events. Your chances of winning any one giveaway is unaffected by your entries in other giveaways. To calculate the probability of winning anything, use the formula P = P(A) + P(N) - P(A)*P(N)
So for 3 giveaways with 1/50 odds, probability of winning one is P = 1/50 + 1/50 + 1/50 - (1/50)(1/50)(1/50)
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To be clear - I don't mind what kind of game I'll won.Every game is welcomed as long as it gives me a +1 in my steam library and helps me level-up.
This means my best chances of winning a game here are to participate in giveaways with less entries and costing less points.
But here comes the tricky part - which is better - to enter as much as much giveaways as possible costing less points or entering the 'expensive' ones with less participants?
If there's a giveaway (with 1 copy) with 50 participants my canches are 1/50 obviously.
If I enter 50 giveaways (with 1 copy each) with 50 entries each - what are my chances of winning? They are not 1 obviously , but should be much better than entering only one.
What about entering 10 giveaways (each costing 10 points) with 200 participants each? or entering 50 giveaways (each costing 2 points) with 1000 participants each? It will costs me the same amount of points ,but with which I'll have the better chances?
(I think it is not so hard to find the answer.Creating a javascript script that calculates your current chances based on your activity also is not so hard - may be such a feature can be requested :-) )
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