Sometimes I have the impression that some people are very much luckyer than others. At example, I have a winning ratio of 1 every 1300 GA entered, but I have seen people with a winning ratio of 1 every 270/300 circa with won GAs every month.
It looks suspicious to me.
What do you think?

4 years ago

Comment has been collapsed.

Whitelist and group GAs, fewer entries higher winning chance

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Like me? I am not cheating. :(

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Apologies, it was not intended as an accusation. It was only a not well formulated question.

edit:
anyway I have checked your profile and you are very different to whom I was referring. I won high level GAs with very few contenders.
I was speaking of someone who hase a low level and has lot of victories in few months in GAs with many contenders.
Really your profile is very different from that kind of partecipants I was talking about. You do GAs (a lot of), you leave comments, I presume you thank when you win.

4 years ago*
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I didnt think think it was accusation i was kinda joking since i was thinking the same with axlnase above me. Also i get your point better now. You are somewhat right to think that but your answer is just some people are lucky. An example from me, a person won one of my gas had mutiple winings with 4 or 5 different games. :D I was very surprised to see that but it happens. He is perma suspended now so dont worry about him wining more. :p

Edit: Also yeah i am not really entering or sharing stuff anymore but i did thank and leave comments. That was the best part of site for me tbh. Puzzles and events or just meaningful random giveaway conversations are really fun.

4 years ago*
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

well, suspensions and ban usually accompany that kind of profiles who make me doubt of some possible way of cheating, but as it has been clarified by other players, it is impossible to cheat so it is probably that my mind has only noted some cases and not others.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I know you ^^

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Keep it between us Maru i will make you win 2 games tomorrow.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

thats how luck works. some months you get 6+ games others -8.64. im told the record for one month is -15 wins

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I have broken the record then... :-P

View attached image.
4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

View attached image.
4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

congrats i guess..... heres your award

View attached image.
4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Santa polenta! At least tell me that you have been lucky in love affairs in that period? :D

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

15 wins in month? I have 1 per year xD huh

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Have you tried the Konami code?

Serios answer is: https://www.steamgifts.com/go/comment/5kHGwyG

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I am sorry, I did not get the pun.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Thanks.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

That's not how the probabilities work. Imagine you enter 2 giveaways, one with 1000 entries and one with 5. You win the second one. You had 0.1% chance of winning the first one and 20% chance of winning second one, but according to your logic you now have won 1 in 2.

So enter only giveaways with small amount of entries if you really want to reduce this ratio for no reason.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Also if pure probability determines a winner there's always a chance that some people will never win anything in their lifetime no matter how many giveways they join.

4 years ago*
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

and there is a chance that some could be "the choosen ones", people that win every giveaway they join

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

not if they ever enter a ga with 100% win chance (where # entries <= # gifts)

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Yeah, that's an obvious exception and their only chance.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

that's true indeed

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Statistics & probability are a pathway to outcomes many find... unlikely

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

love this

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

It depends on what kind of GAs you join. Only 10% of my wins are from public giveaways.

If you want to win more, try to take part in events like PAGYWOSG or Jigidis/ItsToHard stuff or join groups. I think you should be able to join Unlucky 7 for example.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

we will never know unless we are able to check sg's source code. 🤷

being paranoid in a site where you can get free stuff will only hurt yourself. just enjoy your wins and don't think too much about giveaways you lose.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I am not interested in the fact that I win or not, but since I sometimes do some giveaways, I would like to be sure that it has been won by someone that has not cheated so please be cautious to call someone paranoid.
I accept the fact that my basis are fallacious, for that very reasons I asked for different opinions.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

be cautious to call someone paranoid.

i was being as cautious as you proposing there are cheaters on sg 🤷

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Since I have memory I don't remember sarcasm has ever been a good option in any discussion on internet ...until when you want that the topic go wasted...

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

fraud, stop counting, the russians are hacking steamgifts

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Nein! It has been the butler! ;)

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Almost all data regarding GA is public. If you know the math you can actually use it to caclulate if the GAs is fair.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Deleted

This comment was deleted 1 year ago.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

That demonstrates that my logic was fallacious, I did not considered what you call the "real ratio".

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Ok, we have confirmed that the basis of my logic were fallacious, but the question still remain?
Do cheaters exists or may I presume that who win my giveaways has won only by lucky?

I repeat I am not interested if I win or not since I know that I enter only in few GAs for games that really interests me and usually are very partecipated GAs.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

There are people with private groups doing "circle jerks", there are people that use bots (which you can prevent a little by setting some level but higher levels cheat too), there are people that trying to cheat their way with Cv, it happens with the amount of members this site has.

I had days i won several games a day, now maybe barely 1 a week, it depends a lot what you enter (whitelist, group, amount of entries) now i got 9000+ games i usually see 3-5 pages of giveaways at most, thus that for me also already decreases chances on winning something, others like to filter out 9000 games themselves.
And there are a lot less active people (and giveaways) over the last few years due all sorts of reasons.

As to the outcome that is just completely up to randomness, noone can influence that.

4 years ago*
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Funnily, it is impossible to program something to be absolutely random ;)

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

lol its not 'cheating' as you think as u cant cheat to have higher % chance to win

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

If you make a small private group with 10 people or so and just let eachother win, then you basically can.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

but how is it cheating? Its not-u need to give game, so its pointless. And if no activation=-ban. And then it doesnt count to your cv/level

4 years ago*
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I myself won two dlc's less than 24 hours apart.
Considering that I have only 7 wins in over 10 months at SG, this is a funny result.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

No.

Now, I've only taken one university-level class in programming and probability, respectively, but I still know enough mathematics to know that the SG code would have to be absurdly bad and broken for cheating to be possible. Nobody without access to the code can know for certain, but the people with access to the code know, and I strongly doubt they're stupid enough to make a cheatable system with one account.

I don't doubt that there are people who use several accounts to cheat though, obviously having a higher win probability in a giveaway than someone with just one entry.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Depends on what you call a cheater I think. If the win algorithm is predictable we don't know like Mully already said.

But there are a lot of people using autojoin scripts which can give you a little advance or people who have multiple accounts. If you would call this cheating, then yes there are a lot of them here.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

may I presume that who win my giveaways has won only by lucky?

Yes. There's no way to make SG let you win, anyone who wins just gets lucky. I've seen people win 3 games on the same day, just by being lucky.

The only ways to cheat on SG is to use bots to enter more giveaways or to exploit ways to gain CV to raise your level to allow you to enter level restricted giveaways.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Some people join a lot of high level giveaways, group giveaways and whitelist giveaways. They have fewer entrants, so you are more likely to win one of those than a public Level 0 giveaway.

The rules apply to everyone equally...I highly doubt that SG's random number generator is flawed and exploitable.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

The only way of cheating I can think about, at the moment, for such a system: creating a number of alt accounts, entering the same GAs, thus increasing the chance of winning. But I don't think it would be that much advantageous.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

anonymous is the best cheater around here. Just check any GA that just ended, I'm sure he won it.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

that fucker wins everything

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I humbly apologise for having forgotten Mr. Anonymous. I am really, really sorry.
I am sure that he really deserved his prize: clicking on all that "enter giveaway"s is really tedious.
:)

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

made me the day xD

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

the way i win so much is i sacrifice virgin weebs to RNsatan.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I was stunned as at the very beginning of my SG-adventure the same guy won two of my public giveaways (with 500+ and 800+ entries) in a row :)
But well, it's how it works. Usually I am unlucky, but then I am winning few games in a short period of time. My record was advancing from -5 to +4 in a weekend with 3 or 4 wins.

4 years ago*
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Calling people out (unintentionally or not) is against SG's rules.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Thanks for it! <3
I woudn't think about it as calling somebody out, but you might be right. I am not mad about his wins, actually I laughed so hard, that the lucky one went to my blue-heart list for some time :)

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Deleted

This comment was deleted 3 years ago.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

gameshark, obviously

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I heard that Game Genie also works.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

90's kid confirmed

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Create a select group of "friends" with low number of entries - it's called cheating the system to make your stats look good (and so that you can enter higher level giveaways) - but in the long run to continue this would be pointless, cos those games have to come from somewhere.
I guess the only other way to get heaps of wins (not cheat) is a combination of being part of a lot of groups, and entering everything you can, (regardless of whether you even want those games).
I'm thankful for what I've won, but I always wish we won more - I foolishly refuse to be part of groups, so my loss ;)

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

nothing u said about could be called cheating. Still giving away games-to friends or strangers-is not free

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Yes, I was talking about you. Maybe next time you should keep your "mouth" closed.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Deleted

This comment was deleted 4 years ago.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

You can be rich and at the same time bet on the races of horses. Until you do not dope the horse which you bet on and win fairly the answer to your question is obviously not.

At the same time someone, who doesn't really understand how the races work, but knows that there are cheaters in the world, can legitimately ask if there are cheaters even among the gamblers or if there is any way to guide the result of a race. ...it is a legitimate question, not a proposition.
(obviously the second part was not addressed to you) ;)

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Honestly - I was thinking about the same thing it in the past :)
Two or three times I won 2 games from the same user at the same time (train and community train). So I was thinking what caused that.
First thing - there is not such thing like real randomness. There is script that generates "random" outcome, but it's just pretending to be random. Not sure how it works exactly and what input it needs to work. I doubt that anybody would like to reveal source code for rng in steamgifts anyway xD
Another thing - is there randomness at all? Even if you throw a coin - outcome depends on force you used, coin weight, gravity, wind and a lot of other factors. Technically - you could use some maths and predict if it's gonna be heads or tails - but counting it doesn't make much sense xD

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

My winnings instead follow the flow of the number of my comments. I have seen that I started to win only after that I started to leave comments and when I do not leave any comments I do not win until I write something again. :D

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Who knows xD
Script might look just like that:

  1. Take number of entries.
  2. Multiply by total amount of comments made by user "Manzotin".
  3. Divide by potato.
4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

the way 'randomness' in scripts works can vary depending on the coder. if you really think about it, nothing is truly random and can be predicted given enough information, at least theoretically. you can use really anything that can be deemed 'random enough' and translate it into code. white noise or radioactive decay of an atom are good examples. if i had to take a random guess hah on how sg does it is by making some kind of algorithm based off several variables, mash them together at end then take the first x amount of digits needed - boom - you have a 'random' number. variables could be something like date/time began, date/time ended, number of entrants, number of comments.. really anything unique to that particular giveaway. you could assign a number value to each letter in the alphabet, then do a little math and get a final value to use based off the title of the game, the gifter, the 1st entrant.. you get the point. in order to cheat this system you would need to know the algorithm, all the variables, and be able to place yourself as the correct entrant # in order to succeed.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

No, i was more naive. :) I was thinking in a simply hacking as in that movies were a student change his score in a test just by entering in that very right computer of the school.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

View attached image.
4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I was thinking about that with my lucky double wins.
And my conclusion was that I was just lucky xD Obviously I just could have the same unknown variables in all those giveaways... Guess I'll never know :)

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

1/522

It doesn't look so bad

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

You got seven full dots: you are clearly a cheater because I do not have all that full dots. That's logic! :D

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

I think this is how it works.xD

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

you guys are getting dots?

View attached image.
4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

look at your sg profile ;)

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

View attached image.
4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Sorry, I don't speak english

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Ok, thankfully I was wrong. I can close the topic.

4 years ago
Permalink

Comment has been collapsed.

Closed 4 years ago by Manzotin.