Winning probabilities

Let's get what started?

I don't think you understand how probablity works.

Fail?

If you have a 49.98% chance of winning "after" your 347th try, and a 50.18% "after" your 348th, can you reasonably expect to win one of those 50-50 chance scenarios?

There's still a 1% chance of you not winning.

Haha, don't surf steamgifts during you're math lessons dude ;)

thats not the chances cuz the avg per give away is about 600-800 so when u will have about 1k it will be a sure thing hhh

i won 4 games in a puzzle but i havent used the keys not sure if they work

How does the probability of you winning increase over time? :o
It goes like this:

1: Win/Lose; 2: Win/Lose; 3: Win/Lose; etc.
So each time you have a probability of 1/2 to win.
After x giveaways, you'll still have that same probability, because the outcome of a giveaway doesn't depend on the previous ones.

Well, the probability of entering 2300 giveaways with 500 entries each and dont win a single one is really only 1%, but the probability of you winning the 2301st would still be 1/500.

I hope so i will one a game. If i will win i will make a giveaway too.

In public giveaways there chanse of winning is alwas less than 1% mostly some 0.001 or less

Uhm... This?

Problem with probabilities is htat some people who do things with 99% probability of success still fail all the time. That's what luck is, or lack of.

hmm? uhhh hmm good luck. Randomness never changes so probability depends more on entries.

He does have a 499/500 chance of losing every single one of those 2300 give-aways. The odds of him losing them all is (499/500)^2300 and that really is 1%.

However, chances don't "grow" as you participate in more give-aways (and lose them): they get lower since there's no memory effect. If you've lost 2299 give-aways and participate in the last one, you'll only have 0.2% chances of winning, which is far less than your original prediction. ;)

You are correct if you mean:
"If I enter 2300 giveaways, each one with 500 entries, the chance of losing all of them is about 1.00%"
Or equivalently:
"If I enter 2300 giveaways, each one with 500 entries, the chance of winning AT LEAST one of them is about 99.00%"

As other people have said, GIVEN you lose 2299 giveaways, the chance of winning the next one would be still 1/500 -- so do not raise your hopes as you keep losing, that is not how it works. But keep trying, and eventually (probably!) you will win, even with a tiny 1/500 chance.

(Unless you consider the "Steamgift Losers" group! If you keep losing, you have better chances of entering the group, in which case you do increase your chances of winning!)

Cheers!

Think of it this way. The longer you're here and entering giveaways, the better chance you have of winning. Group and Contributor giveaways also help. And the 1 hour giveaways.

Or, if you wanted a 100% chance of winning a free game, just buy Children of the Nile: Enhanced Edition and enter a giveaway for Alexandria.

... Maths

There is even a possibility you might win 10 times a week or not at all for 2 years. It´s all possible. Anyway, the only thing for sure is: 100 people = 1% chance to win.
Playing 100 times in a 100 person giveaway doesn´t increase those chances! Point!

Oh, it's THIS thread again...and no, creating yet another thread with wrong maths doesn't increase your chances of winning a giveaway. ;)

I just won my third giveaway :D

There is a 1% chance of not winning by the 2300 entry when you start AT 0 entries.
The chance of winning a 500 entry giveaway is always 1/500.
After each giveaway you lose, that 1% chance of not winning increases. (doesn't stay at 1%)
At 2299 entries, your next entry has a 1/500 chance of losing which makes it a 99.8% chance of not winning anything after 2300 entries.

It's totally random... I won my 2nd one at 650 entries and my first one at 350. That doesn't mean I will win after every 300-350 entries in future, duh...

I guess its something you just have to be patient about

That would explain why I haven't won anything yet...