But that is only a 1 in 2552.75 chance of not winning a single copy... imo you should do that since his win chance was that and no 1 in 10211 since there was going to be 4 possible winners.
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Why have a threshold of 5 or even 2? Just divide the number of entrants for any giveaway by the number of copies. Your intent was to see who beat the longest odds, wasn't it? Well the odds are directly related to how many copies are being given away.
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To find the luckiest person, not just the luckiest winner of a single giveaway, we need to create and then apply an algorithm.
This algorithm should weigh each giveaway win on a point system based on the odds of winning that giveaway. The odds are, of course, based on the entries and the amount of items given away - which is usually, though not always, one. It could also be debated that the member's ratio of losses to wins should be somehow included in the member's overall "luckiness" points amount.
After the algorithm is created, people will need to submit their SG profile as a potential winner of this "luckiest person" title.
Reducing the amount of tedium required to iterate over dozens of members and their dozens of wins is arguably necessary. We'll need to get certain variables such as the amount of wins and odds of winning. To get these variables, we can create a simple XML parser to act as a DOM parser. Plug in a user's profile URL and it would iterate over all pages, all giveaway wins, get the necessary variables, and run them through the algorithm.
The programmatically-reached end result would be a number of "luckiness" points that the member has. Plug in the SG profile URL for every single potential winner that entered, i.e. replied to a thread, and then all that's left is to crown the one with the most "luckiness" points.
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Well this is certainly interesting. You are, of course, correct that the luckiest person is in no way simply the luckiest winner of a single giveaway, but I think an algorithm to find said person is a little beyond the scope of my boredom/effort. And also ability.
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Interestingly enough, my first win just happens to be the one I was luckiest on. It was Terraria, with
2,453 entries. And I was excited as fuck to find out that I had won it! I came back online after a small chronic pain induced hiatus, and found that happy little green banner up at the top of the Steam Gifts home page. It did a lot to uplift my mood. Especially since it was one of my top five most wanted games at the time. Love that game to pieces! :)
And a close second would be Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic, which had 2,238 entries total. All of the other ones I've entered had less than 1,500 entries total. And on the flip side of that, my win with the least entries is The Ship - Complete Pack, which only had 58 of 'em
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Ghost of a thread past:
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I used this once and it took a while just to fill in a small amount of entries. Without a script that parses your profile's DOM and automatically gets all of the variables, this script is virtually useless unless you want to spend hours entering in hundreds of giveaway data and then keeping it up to date >.<.
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Took me roughly 10 minutes of copying and pasting, and I have 3 times your number of giveaways to input! Sure, it's not ideal, but there is no way this should take anyone more than a few minutes if they follow the instructions!
:)
It would be a fun stat to add, and maybe in time CG will implement it, but realistically I doubt this will be happening any time soon. The spreadsheet, despite its clunkiness, is people's best (and only, AFAIK) chance of finding an objective measure of "luckiness" in the meantime.
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My best was 5,518 entries for Orcs Must Die 2 man was I happy :D
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My best and only win : bioshock 2 1/5561
and it was my 101st entry.
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None of these are me but they're pretty high...
http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/I62fO/borderlands-2/entries
http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/hvZoC/the-orange-box
http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/G7Yt1/warhammer-40000-space-marine
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my only won is 2/685... but almost simultaneously I won two dota2s... shame that i had to give one up
and I ninjad the ship using my ancient ninja skill... called leftovers...
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http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/s6EHH/magicka <- This, altho it had 4 copies...
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http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/3Yq3h/adventures-of-shuggy
It had 5 copies.... :D
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I won a Humble Bundle with about 2600 entries a few weeks ago, but I asked that he'd reroll as I had gotten most of the games at that time, and three days ago I won They Bleed Pixels (& Orcs Must Die) with 3099 entries.
http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/snwo4/they-bleed-pixels
Also, I've never seen even close to that many entries as in the Skyrim giveaway on this site before. I never knew it was that wanted.
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I won Blocks that Matter (amazing game) ou of 2268.
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My best, and only one win is Portal 2. 1/1479 chances.
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I'm curious fellow steamgifts users: who has beaten the longest odds on a giveaway? Like, the most wanted games with public giveaways usually get thousands of entries, and one person has to be the winner.
So I want to know, who's the luckiest of us all? Doesn't have to be one of the most wanted games either, just the winner of the giveaway with the most entries.
Feel free to also post with your personal longest odd win, and how happy/excited it made you to win it! My longest odd: Shortly after I joined the site I won a copy of Beyond Good & Evil out of 1,683 entries. I was totally jazzed and even a little shocked to win, especially so soon after joining!
This is just for fun, all you get are bragging rights if you make the top ten!
Gonna (try to) keep a list of the top 10 from this thread for reference:
1) Ellegon - Skyrim: 10,211*
2) IronFang - Max Payne 3: 6,221
3) Gary0ak - Skyrim: 5,835
4) Morgeek - Bioshock 2: 5,561
5) Anubisfr3ak - Orcs Must Die! 2: 5,518
6) AtomicWoodchuck - Killing Floor Bundle: 5,226
7) fangmich - Dishonored: 5,100
8) ThePejlka - Quakecon Bundle: 4,727
9) MatheusCRO - Battlefield 3: 4,366
10) dirtling - Trine 2 Collectors: 3,560
*Note: Giveaways with 5 or more copies and developer giveaways don't count for this list. This number is completely arbitrary, and might change if people take this too seriously and make a fuss.
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