no, bad/good luck.
It's obviously getting pretty discouraging
you won 3 times in ~20 days...
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No, there is no such thing as a winning cap or shadow blacklisting on this site. It's just coincidence.
Best advice I can give you is to only enter for games you actually wanna play. That way every win feels special.
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You have won 3 games in 2 weeks and have entered few giveaways and feel the need to complain?
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but there are the 300 anything good .... by the ratio not really :-D laughing
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That's what she said ><
... sorry couldn't resist ><
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I thought it might not be appropriate so I deleted it.
ow... and I just learned there's an " undelete" button.
I learn something new here every day. ...
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indeed everyday u can learn something new ^^.
I don't know why u should delete that comment, is not saying anything wrong is just a jk for ppl who know what ur saying :P
Btw i couldn't help but to stalk ur steam profile, why u only have 8 friends O_o u don't like add ppl or nobody likes u (?
Have a great week and again thx for the laugh!
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I've been playing Warcraft for 12 years... and a few months ago I "woke up" and started playing other games again. So rather new to the steam community :).
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welcome back to the real world then (?
IF u like feel free to add me on steam 9 is better then 8 (that's what she said xxD)
Take care.
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Added you, now I have 9 steam friends yey :D.
You get an achievement at 10 right?
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"statistically implausible"? You've got some gambler's fallacy up in yours.
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- You've already won more than most win in the same amount of time.
- If you want to increase your chances, you might try making a few giveaways yourself.
- Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.
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Not winning anything with "1500 additional entries", even in giveaways with "only" about 200 other entries (meaning it's 199 times more likely that someone else wins) is not statistically implausible, it's just the way RNG works. Some of us have like 20k entries and still haven't won anything at all.
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I don't think I'm complaining. If I just had a spell of really good luck for two days and I'm now having normal luck, then that's good enough for me. I'm certainly thrilled that this site exists and that developers and community members choose to participate. I'm quite pleased to have won anything at all. I just thought I'd noticed an anomaly that might mean I was wasting my time by continuing to enter in giveaways. But your comments are reassuring. Thanks!
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You are, and you'll get a lot of blacklists for complaining about not getting things when you aren't giving any yourself.
Just enter a few giveaways with 100 copies instead of single copy ones with thousands of entries and see how easily you win something else.
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This seems to be statistically implausible
From what information you've given us, it actually sounds more like you're coming to some hasty conclusions about the statistics involved, and are lacking much familiarity with statistical variance. Note, you can check the actual statistics for your account easily enough - click the v button next to your avatar in the top right corner. From there, click 'My Stats'. Scroll down a bit to the 'Luck per Month' section, and read the first paragraph of it. The last line of that should read something along the lines of "Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 9 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.".
The more you enter, the more likely it is that you'll encounter a more notable deviation from a perfectly balanced average.
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I think he started great by the wins and thinked that is "normal". Now wondered why he not win in nearly the same way.
And experience now that the normal thing is lesser then his win ratio.
For me it is not really a complain... maybe a bit bad written or a young user.
Because he is new i don't look so harsh on it
(and when i say this as the bot and leecher hater would say this a bit laughing)
My advice... make at few giveaways to come at least on lvl 2. There is the grass much greener than down there on lvl 0 and 1 :o) and you prove that you want give anything back to the other users.
With other words.. you win more and meet much more nice people.
Win-Win for each side :o)
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Congratulations. Most people don't win anything within 2 weeks after joining, and you won 3. That's pretty good.
Don't worry - everyone who enters a giveaway has exactly the same chance of winning as everyone else - your previous wins don't affect your odds in any way.
Just for fun, visit your stats and have a look at your "Luck Per Month" chart :)
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I've done a more thorough analysis based on my actual entry history and I've found that the expected value of my wins so far is only about 4. So my intuition that something unusual was going on was incorrect. All is well. Thanks again for the feedback.
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Ah, never actually heard of that expression. Is this really how you'd use it in context though? I would have expected, no phun intended, something more along the lines of ...the expected value for winning but this may be due to my lack of experience in statistical analysis.
Worth noting though, since you initially seemed surprised by your lack of wins is that to have good predictability with statistical analysis you'll need far more raw data than you'll be able to generate with your entries alone.
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But still every 1 chance in 100, is still the same chance even after the 100th time.
World of Warcraft mount farming taught me that :P
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As was mentioned below already, you can see your expected number of wins on your stats page: https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community
According to that page I am "unlucky, and won 11 fewer gifts than estimated" but I do not feel unlucky at all.
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Off-hand, looking at your wins, you've been extremely lucky. But for all I know you've entered and lost 10 giveaways with 10,000 keys and 10,001 entries. What does your Stats page (Luck per month) say?
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I do check the stats page regularly. For the curious, here's a little histogram of what 100 simulated runs with my entry history produces:
0:00000000000
1:000000000000000000
2:000000000000000000000000
3:00000000000000000000000000
4:0000000
5:000000
6:000
7:000
8:0
9:0
So at three wins, I'm right where I should hope to be.
(crossing fingers and hoping the formatting looks reasonable upon posting)
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It's not capped. Luck is an uncontrolled variable. ;-)
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Its random... Cca like i didnt won single thing for 6 months.. then guys winning every 48h smth... Feels like if my acc is marked to win nothing :D tired from entering anything.
Btw u gave 0 and won 3 in 2 weeks and talking about winning.... Eeeeeh.. ok?
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Nice.
I suspect you have reduced your chances of entering GAs a lot by your complaint/observation.
And don't start with statistics etc.
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You win more than most people and still you complain. Make GA's yourself to win more. GG.
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You have been lucky, why are you complaining about it? Just have a little patience, giveaways are random after all.
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Yep, this site is a scam. Better to just go and never return. Really.
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I won three cheap games in my first two days after I joined. In two weeks since then I've made over 1500 additional entries. Most of the entries have been in giveaways that have low participation (less than 200 by the end). Yet I haven't won anything since day two. This seems to be statistically implausible unless there's a cap on wins or unless I've been blacklisted silently or something. It's obviously getting pretty discouraging. Can anyone clue me in as to what is probably going on? Thanks!
edit : Nope, nothing unusual going on after all. I had hoped to appeal to more knowledgeable members to determine if I was using the site incorrectly. It turns out that it was just poor intuition on my part. A closer look at my odds of winning so far puts my actual number of wins right where I should hope for them to be. Thanks again to everyone for the input! And thanks for your participation on this awesome site.
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