i was thinking of making a topic just like this. I guess this is 5 year old, but for 2020, who's the unluckiest ? i'm at 0/301
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You only made an account a week ago. I hadn't won anything until 3 days ago, and now I'm suddenly on a winning streak. Plus, 300 entries isn't bad.
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i was not complaining, i'm here just for the fun. But wanted to know like the OP i guess, how unlucky did people really got here lmao
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Oh, I didn't mean for my comment to come off like that. I just meant that you're still pretty new here, so don't write off all of your hope. It'll happen :)
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Got to "My Stats" and see under "Luck per Month", there it says how many estimated gifts you should have earned
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Your ratio wins/entries doesn't give real info on your luck.
If you entered 300 giveaways with 5 entries each, then yes you're unlucky, but if you only entered giveaways with thousand and thousand entries then you're far from being unlucky yet.
Check the picture in the comment below. 42 fewer gifts is unlucky even with almost 1.3k wins.
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I think luck is based on how you offer something. Don't give, don't win. At least I say from my own experience.
I would suggest you start with :
https://www.steamgifts.com/discussion/orrR5/unlucky7-a-group-for-those-that-won-7-or-fewer-games-new-gifter-rule-23rd-feb-2020
Where everyone started winning.
And I never expected to win, but I was pretty lucky I have to admit. I generally go to forums to see what's new and what's being discussed.
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I think luck is based on how you offer something. Don't give, don't win.
No, its mutually exclusive. Its almost entirely the user's choice what giveaways they enter, as "Luck" defined by SG is purely based on odds of winning each individual giveaway (1/[number of giveaway entries]).
Luck as calculated by SG basically sums up the odds of your chance to win all your prior entries, and subtracts the number of games you actually won. Example: If I enter two giveaways with two entries each (1/2+1/2=1 expected win), then I "should" have won one giveaway, and if I didn't then I'm less lucky by 1 gift compared to what the odds indicate.
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Entered - 6196, Won 4 but one these was invalid key, so count as 3.
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 17 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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18,091 won 28... but if we look at the last 2 years won 0, (oh there is 1 last year ) too unlucky or don’t know ;d
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Not bad for me.
3404 entries 9 won
But I created to 29 giveaways
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Giveaways Entered 6,140
Won 7
Sent 69
Although I got GTA 5 here, which is nice
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From what I can see, a lot of the people who said they are unlucky are users in level 0-2, and as someone who's being in this site for a few years, I can say you aren't going to win very often in giveaways for low levels, you need to give away stuff and level up so you'd get into more exculsive giveaways where you'll likely win more.
Obviously it's possible to win in low level giveaways and lose in more high level giveaways, it's luck based after all, but doing some work could pay off, so it's not entirely about being lucky.
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That is probably someone who at last wins but the ga is fake and he/she doesn't receive a key
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Most of the user methods of find the "most unlucky" are not comparable to eachother.
Group giveaways skew the win/entry method, and positive/negative win count is inaccurate as win number should be taken into consideration as well -> someone who won 1 and has a -1 is easy to see that is more unlucky than someone who won 150 and is similarly at -1
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Number of entries vs number of wins mean nothing without context. People can enter thousands of times in public GAs and its normal to not win a game because the odds of winning each individual giveaway are literally one in thousands. (e.g. 1/1000=0.1%)
Y'all should look at your actual Luck stat in SG which is second from the top in Personal stats. Jogge (above) takes the cake here with having won 42 fewer gifts than expected. I think it basically sums up the odds of your chance to win all your prior entries, and subtracts the number of games you actually won. Example: If I enter two giveaways with two entries each (1/2+1/2=1 expected win), then I "should" have won one giveaway, and if I didn't then I'm less lucky compared to what the odds indicate.
My stats says I've won 7 fewer gifts since I first joined, which I think is actually better than what it used to be (8 or 9). Its interesting how its been a sine wave trending slightly upward.
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Jogge won 1286 instead of the expected 1286+42= 1328.
You won 94 instead of the expected 101.
Won/expected ratio shows us how close someone is to being in the "perfect" spot of won as many as they should have. Basically the statistical perfection.
Jogge's "luck ratio" is 0.968 which equals to having 96.8% of expected wins.
Yours "luck ratio" is 0.931 which equals to having 93.1% of expected wins.
You're actually more unlucky than they are.
The original comparison would be weird to begin with, as it would leave out every user who has less than -42 in their stats. And what search for the unluckiest person it would be, if it would leave out users by default? Someone literally winning nothing, and still be luckier than Jogge? Now that's a headscrather :D
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Interesting, ratio of expected wins is a more meaningful person to person comparison of luck.
It would be fun for group purposes if each person's luck were publicly exposed. Currently the only way to currently determine someone else's SG luck or luck ratio is to do mass extract a person's giveaways (via ESGST or something else) and do the math.
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Yes, I'd be interested how the win-ratio bell curve looks like. To see its deviation, then we could tell between what +/- percentage the vast majority of the users are. Or how the abandoned, often 0-win accounts modify the data - we likely have tens of thousands of users with 0 wins, and the win/expected win ratio wouldn't work on them, so they are either just labeled as 0-luck people. It would be such an interesting data to explore :)
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A relative indicator is way better, as long as you remove accounts with a small number of wins.
I'm at around 92% of your "luck ratio", with quite a few wins and there's surely people with worse luck.
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A relative indicator is way better, as long as you remove accounts with a small number of wins.
Yep, very low win count is not good enough to use it if we would like to understand how the win-distribution works, it's too crude.
I'm pretty surprised at your 92%, it's maybe the lowest I've seen (from the massive data of like .. 2-3 dozen people :D ) - I guess there are many people with 50% ( won 1, has a -1 or something like that) - I'm curious what is the lowest someone with 100-200 wins has.
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Managed to get to "40 fewer gifts" with 408 wins which puts me to a 91% win ratio now. I guess anything lower than 90% is quite rare.
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I'm not so unlucky but i have my fair share:P
My first gift was not received,then i join the unlucky 7 so i won!
Then as my wife was pregnant with our 3rd one I had joint a group that you had to play a game that you won...so again i won about 2 days of the birth of my child so i played the game but offline and the ach didn't activated....so the kicked me(they had right,wrong place,wrong time:P)
From then on nothing:P LOL
2 years:P
My luck sucks!:P
Tho i have a nice steam library so:P
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My Luck stat has had a rough run this year, sitting at -3.98 expected gifts over the past 12 months. 2 wins total despite entering enough to sit between 30% and 50% chance each month. Definitely not the unluckiest (got to play the crap outta Pyre, my most recent win), but it's been a demoralizing year for entering giveaways. Thankfully, Epic Games keeps giving away great games so there's always content there!
To calculate your past 12 months luck, just add positive months (like +.51) and subtract negative months (-.31) on your stats page where it shows the 1 year graph. If I don't win something this weekend, I drop under -4, which I didn't think was possible but I'm sure someone has me beat.
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Overall, you've been neither lucky or unlucky, and won the exact number of gifts we estimated since you first joined.
6397 entered and won 9, not too bad.
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I believe that I'm a bit below average, but my math has ALWAYS sucked.
54,078 entered
240 won
Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 7 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.
Last win was March 30.
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890 entries and the only game i won i found out was being given away for free on Humble bundle.....
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I don't consider myself unlucky. I have won hundreds of games here. But I will say that I am constantly below my expected average. My luck graph is mostly red for quite a while now. ^^
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They banned our prophet and savior. We are all unlucky.
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funny how there are a bunch of 0-1 level users with extremely low win ratios. it's almost like if you contribute to the community, gain some levels and join some groups, you suddenly get "luckier"..
also, yeah. i've seen some of those public 'cyberpunk 2077' giveaways go to users with low levels. sure the odds are low, but somebody's gotta win it.
since we're all sharing:
if only this slightly above average luck translated to my personal life.
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I know is not me but I am getting closer to be at least one of them! :)
I cant find any tool on steamgifts to get that result... :o
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