Statistically Lucky People?

I have 12 wins. Estimated - 8 ._.

It's also weird that I can not win for a month or so and then win a couple of games in a short amount of time. Crazy.

Well I've felt lucky when system was first introduced - My estimated was around 70-71 and I've won 82-83. But since then I got pretty unlucky and right now its standard - 90 Won, 90.25 estimated ;p

I don't win a single game since 3 weeks...

yesterday i win 2 games :D

I have 19 wins, Estimated 13.23. Not bad...

If I get the one I just won, it'll be 32 wins to 21.86 Estimated.

Pika

It would be interesting to do the statistics on everybody's ratio. It probably has a sampling distribution resembling a normal curve where most people are right around 1 and then there are less and less people as it goes higher and lower. I wonder who is the outlier with the highest ratio and best luck and the one with the lowest ratio and worst luck

Giveaways Entered 994
Gifts Won 9
Estimated Wins 6.91

Currently 2.45 behind. I've seen worse, but it's been too long since my last win, I won 30 Flights of Loving when I had 12.33 estimated wins, so I should have won 3.12 games since then. Still, can't complain about the games I've won already, I really enjoyed playing most of them!

I just think that those who have higher win ratio and whom do not participate in group or private giveaways simply place entries to fewer points games, like 10 or 15 max. For example, not cause I'm some greedy fella, I tend to enter only for games that I'd play that are 20 or above points, cause that's kind of the limit I'd go and pay for a game since I can't really afford to do that on a regular basis.

If you want to have an idea how lucky that actually is, a better estimate than just the ratio win/estimate is described here.

Cheers!

58 wins

50.24 estimated

yes i know some of them are dev wins or group/private, but who cares?

Gifts Won 13
Estimated Wins 9.73
So not incredibly lucky, but still quite.
Group, private and mass giveaways doesn't mess up the statistics, so I see no point in focusing on that whatsoever.

Gifts Won: 79
Estimated Wins: 64.04

Wins: 1
Estimated Wins: 5.46

it seems like i am doing not so good :P

I never won anything since I created account. That's 2 months ago and about 1500 entries (if you don't count Galactic Arms Race that practically everyone has).

Gifts Won 12
Estimated Wins 17.76

62 won, 42.88 estimated

Estimated wins 7.83.

Won 11.

I feel lucky.

31/35.45

Still feel super lucky.

Best I was at was +21 >_>

http://www.steamgifts.com/user/Getinmabelly/won
Won 1, Estimated Wins 0.0003979

Won 13. Estimated 17.76.

But that's nice. I won 5 in the last month or so. Before that I was much further behind.

I've won 1 with a estimated 0.50, its not bad.