How many more - or less - "gifts than estimated" did you win?
overall: +23
highest: +10.05
lowest: -6.93
current: -6.93
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Overall, you've been lucky, and won 13 more gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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Exactly. So you're at +13. Wow. That's for the poll.
And the end value of the graph is your current luck.
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-0.08
-.025 lowest
+0.65 highest
From May 2015 - only once on green
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-0.26
Only entered 5 this month so far so there's not really been much chance to have a lot of luck either way.
I'm pretty much guaranteed a win soon with that 50,000 copy giveaway ending and only 20-odd thousand entrants so far.
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Yes, this one will surely be a win for all of us. :)
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I just won a GA so it wen from -0.53 or something like that to 0.71 :D
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Way back when it showed all time estimated gifts received and actual gifts received, I had 13/1 and 18/2
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 5 less gifts than estimated since you first joined.
-1.57 and still going down, highest was 1.44.
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Maybe you enter too many of those giveaways with thousands of participants. Try to enter less frequented ones.
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it changes nothing. because Ga with a lot of entries changes your "luck" much less than a GA with small number of entries.
For example if you entered GA with 5000 entries and lost, your luck would change only by 0,0002. If you entered GA with 5 entries and lost your luck would change by 0,2. Average number of estimated wins will remain unaffected by difference in # of entreis ;)
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I don't care about the number of entries, I only enter for games that are on my wishlist. And a lot of those were with low entries.
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 16 less gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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*daily basis ;p
but OP asked about luck stats, so these are mine stats ;)
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Ok, so if it's a daily basis it STILL can't be 16 less. I may have failed remedial math in college TWICE (something of which I'm oddly proud of) but that still doesn't add up. That sounds like it should be MY stats. I'm lucky if I win once every 2-9 weeks.
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Don't want to be harsh, but I think I may know why you failed your math in college... ;) So let me explain it on easy mathemathical example :>
zelghadis enters 100 GAs each with 5 Entries, because they are all group/puzzle/whitelist GAs. He has 1/5 or 0.2 chance to win each of these GAs, so statistically he should win 20 of these GAs. He ended up winning 10 GAs so he is 10 GAs unlucky.
BHTrellis188 enters 100 public GAs each with 2000 Entries. He has 1/2000 or 0.0005 chance to win each of these GAs, so statistically he has only 0.05 chance to win a single GA which counts as 0 in stats. He ended up winning 2 GAs so he is 2 GAs lucky.
zelghadis won 10 GAs while BHTrellis188, yet zelghadis is considered unlucky, while BHTrellis188 is considered lucky. And there's nothing wrong with that, because they entered different kinds of GAs ;)
Long story short - stats are dependant on GAs you enter. I rarely enter a GA with more than 200 entries, a lot of my GAs have less than 50 Entries, so I end up winning a lot more because I have access to GAs with much better odds.
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You weren't being harsh. The REAL reason failed math is because of my learning disability. math was ALWAYS the one subject I had massive trouble with. Even with a tutor.
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thought so (done my own fair share of math tutoring to earn extra cash when I was studying ;p), that's why instead of describing laws and corelations I gave a simple example that explain the same thing instead ;)
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You can link people to https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community and it will take them to their page.
I'm down 3, but I've had worse months; I'm at .16 in the positive this month.
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Thank you, good idea. I changed the post accordingly. :)
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I don't know why! ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
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Now look at that - yours is much flatter than mine! I was always wondering if everybody's looked that spikey. (see below)
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That's kinda funny. We have three different types of people here: an excessive winner, a midrange winner and a rare winner. And also the graphs look totally different. I wonder if that's related.
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Yes definitely but more from entries 5,111/11,713/40,452
zelg have -16 and 41,569 entries
Half of my -35 goes from region lock wins i told creators to delete or rerolled double wins (I had 3 days in row when i wake up and get doubles :)), so minus it we have same stats.
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You won your first GA in Oct, 2014 that you actually had the worst chance of winning.!
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Oh, but that graph only covers 2015, 2014 is not in it unfortunately.
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You won 10 games in Oct, 2015 that you actually had the worst chance of winning.!
Edit : and mine is 2 won in May, 2015 that i had the worst chance.
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This month is bad for me, -2.5
Previous was much better
Thanks for gib
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It's -22 for me, but I would still consider myself as lucky because I only won games I would have bought.
Titles I'm not interested in are filtered out.
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i'm at -3. noticed i have a 100% chance to win on sunday though, so that's cool.
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I had a 100% chance several times, but most of those days I didn't win anything. But I won on other days with like 15% odds. :)
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23 games more then estimated, and i have 100% winning chance on Sunday and Monday so xD
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I think you (together with InnerPeace) currently hold the high score of this poll. Anybody higher than 23?
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"Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 25 less gifts than estimated since you first joined."
Current -1.03 in May, worst was -10.71 last August and best was +5.71 in January.
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25 less than estimated - I think that's the low score here.
There should be a group like the lucky losers or guys who won less than 7 times for this...
So I wish you much more luck for May! :)
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What that number doesn't tell is that I've actually won the top two games in my wishlist this month. I feel so lucky!
We actually had a group called "statistically unlucky" a few years ago when you could see the estimated wins on public profiles. It was fun.
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Either you have entered a GA for a small group and you're the only entry, or
You entered a mass-giveaway (thousands of copies) and there are more keys available than entrants at the moment, or
You just recently entered a GA that ends on Sunday, and you're the only entry.
In the latter case, the percentage will surely go down.
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3 giveaways end on 22nd of may that i entered , all of em are the 50/50/73 copies .... BUT all of em have 15k+ entries either site already knows i will win or it assumes cuz of "developer copies" .
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I assure you it doesn't "know" or "assume" anything. It only calculates odds. Look for something in category 1 or 3 above that ends on the 22nd.
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overall: -3
highest: +3.85
lowest: -5.48
current: -5,48
let's see how low i can get it xD
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If you click on "my stats", among other things you get a graph showing your current luck in winning games. Below 0 is in red, above 0 is in green. I'm curious: What's your current "luck per month" and what was your highest/lowest value in history?
Ah, and here's a small giveaway for your trouble: https://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/68xK0/hacker-evolution
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