If there are 10,000 copies being given away, and there are 10,060 entries, including me, does that mean I have a 1 in 60 chance of winning?

8 years ago

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Nope you have 99.40% chance of winning (10,000/10060)

8 years ago
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Is it just that simple?

The winner of the first copy can't win any of the rest, so chance should be better the more the copies.
Is that already contemplated with a simple division? I can't figure it out.

8 years ago
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It's that simple. 10,000 copies, 10,060 people enters. Everyone but 60 people will win. The probability of you not being one of those 60 is 10,000/10,600 = 0.994 or 99.4%

8 years ago
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Fortunately no :-P You have a 10,000 in 10,060 chance to win, so about 99.4% ;-)

8 years ago
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That's currently 10.000 / 10.060, slightly below 100%

8 years ago
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it means 60 people are gonna get the shaft. If I had entered, I'm sure I'd be one of those 60

8 years ago
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Your chance of winning is (100/10060)*10000 = 99.4%

8 years ago
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The probability of winning is p = 10,000 / 10,060 ≈ 0.994. Hence, the chance is c = p / (1 − p) ≈ 166.6667 to 1.

8 years ago*
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You have a 1 in 167 chance NOT to win a copy.

8 years ago
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Pobability is generally the result you're looking for divided by all the results.
You want to roll a dice and get a 6. The dice have 6 sides, but only one is good for you: so probability of that is 1 divided by 6, 1/6.
If 1 and 2 are the numbers you want to get, that means that 2 results are good for you out of the 6, so the probability is 2 / 6

With the giveaway, there is 10k copies, and any of them is good for you, as you just want to win one. The chance of YOU winning out of the 10.060 people is 1 (as YOU, as one person, want to win) out of 10.060. But as there is 10k copies, basically you multiply this by 10.000, as each of the copies get to a random person, and you have 1/10060 chance for winning each piece:
For giveaways in short: it's (copies) / (entries)

8 years ago
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The number of entries will grow, but in the end you will have at least, 66% of chances of winning, I suppose.

8 years ago
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Wow, thanks for the quick and educational responses, fellas. I knew 1 in 60 couldn't be right, but I couldn't figure out why.

8 years ago
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It's 50%.
Either you win or you die.

8 years ago
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neat

8 years ago
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You, no.
Me, yes.

I once pissed on hospitality and it haunts me ever since.

8 years ago
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Won't bump, Puzzle is way too hard
since you already got a lot of great answers, I thought I'd do the honors and be the first to shitpost. (Although I was obviously way too slow) Please don't eat me Mr. Dinosaur :'(

8 years ago*
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I hope you are joking

8 years ago
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Since I haven't got an answer elsewhere, another dumb question: What's a guib? I've heard others mention it, but not in a context I completely understand (except for when it is said that there are no guibs in the post...)

8 years ago
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It's referring to "giveaways". They are sometimes called "gibs" here :)

8 years ago
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I'm really starting to think this is some kind of puzzle... but there's no private gibbs on your profile :(

gibbs, guibs, gibs, whatever you want to spell it = Giveaway

8 years ago
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don't try to troll me, dino

8 years ago
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you roll a dice with 10600 faces 10000 times hoping to get face x once
http://www.madandmoonly.com/doctormatt/mathematics/dice1.pdf

8 years ago
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There is a non-mathematical aspect too: after the GA is over, one can still try winning dozens/hundreds of re-gifted copies :-)

8 years ago
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